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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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From what I saw the 00z EC ensembles didn't have much of a SE ridge and the 12z don't have one either. Unless you mean a SE ridge around Dec 1&2?

Well I think the first few days of December we relax, but then reload again. We'll always have a danger to play with the SE ridge, but as modeled it's not a huge deal.

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I think overall inverted troughs over perform when it comes to an H5 low moving south of 40N latitude.  So the location of the inverted trough will greatly impact where the best snows will form as most know.

Well the upper low stays way up in QB, but there's enough DPVA with that vort swinging through to "pull" those isobars back a bit from the retreating low...but yeah, you generally want the vort moving "underneath" you. This isn't one of those H5 bowling balls moving out of the GL though so I wouldn't count on more than some mood accums right now. It's not even in the NAM's 84hr window yet so I wouldn't get too hung up on these mesoscale deals from run to run.

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There was a November. Maybe it was 1979?

It was my first Nov living in CT after moving here from Jersey. We had just moved here that Oct.I recall hiking with my parents and there was a pond that was frozen over completely. I distinctly recall there being no snow OTG, but it was bitter cold. Was Nov 79 cold or did it not start till that early Dec?

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There was a November. Maybe it was 1979?

It was my first Nov living in CT after moving here from Jersey. We had just moved here that Oct.I recall hiking with my parents and there was a pond that was frozen over completely. I distinctly recall there being no snow OTG, but it was bitter cold. Was Nov 79 cold or did it not start till that early Dec?

how old are you?  :oldman:

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A place of inbreeding.

LMAO.

 

I'm not holding out much hope for a T-day event.  Things are a little too progressive.  But, if we can (wait.....for........it.........) thread the needle with the timing, perhaps, just perhaps what looks right now to be a scraper or off-shore might make a closer path.  Certainly need to keep watching it, but my gut says no.

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Yeah the Atlantic is keeping the pattern quite progressive. The PAC is causing the cold, but for a blocked up pattern conductive for lots of big coastals, you want a good -NAO...without that, you get a lot of SWFE or other fast moving systems. We get a transient east-based block (should really just called it a ridge) next week which may help out with that coastal threat by temporarily trying to slow things down a bit, but its obviously not a classic block.

 

Move the block west, And more folks would be happy....... :)

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