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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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First of all let's get one thing straight.

 

Baroclinic zone is NOT the Gulf Stream guy-that guy is jamesnichols.

 

BZ is a highly respected poster-a met I believe.

 

 

Gotta love the nod to colder today......

 

And when the cold backed off this week, somone forget to tell it that it would bust.  Most areas were 20s or lower this morning.  that was not modeled.

 

 

I like white ground for a spell this weekend for many.

 

I like a cold driving rainstorm possible as I drive to NJ Wednesday but if there's a hint that it will break colder I may head out Tuesday night.  Princeton is a decent snow location actually.

Its Taunton Bob, not our bud who is now a met in AK

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You know, I don't only post about the Gulf Stream, the Gulf Stream is not the only thing that sparks a storm.  I'm sure everyone in this forum knows that, so I won't post anything that people already know.  However the 18z NAM looks to be further north with the clipper for Sunday, even though its at hour 60.  Still a lot of time for changes to occur on the models.

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Euro ensembles do have the inverted trough and QPF for eastern areas. But again, its way too far out to really worry about a feature like that.

 

I do think lots of snow showers/flurries will be around assuming the larger scale shortwave is modeled close to correct. But even that will require a bit more meso-aspects as we get closer too.

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Euro ensembles do have the inverted trough and QPF for eastern areas. But again, its way too far out to really worry about a feature like that.

 

I do think lots of snow showers/flurries will be around assuming the larger scale shortwave is modeled close to correct. But even that will require a bit more meso-aspects as we get closer too.

Good news, flurries in the air, some weenie radar watching and football in the tube.

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Euro ensembles do have the inverted trough and QPF for eastern areas. But again, its way too far out to really worry about a feature like that.

 

I do think lots of snow showers/flurries will be around assuming the larger scale shortwave is modeled close to correct. But even that will require a bit more meso-aspects as we get closer too.

What do they show for next week?

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First of all let's get one thing straight.

 

Baroclinic zone is NOT the Gulf Stream guy-that guy is jamesnichols.

 

BZ is a highly respected poster-a met I believe.

 

 

Gotta love the nod to colder today......

 

And when the cold backed off this week, somone forget to tell it that it would bust.  Most areas were 20s or lower this morning.  that was not modeled.

 

 

I like white ground for a spell this weekend for many.

 

I like a cold driving rainstorm possible as I drive to NJ Wednesday but if there's a hint that it will break colder I may head out Tuesday night.  Princeton is a decent snow location actually.

I may not be a MET but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Things are looking wintry from late Sat into at least mid week.

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Normally I'm almost as pessimistic as Coastalwx but this has looked favorable for a return to wintry weather for some time.  It may not work out but we're cold and we're not playing hacky sack on Kevin's over fertilized lawn in December this year.

Yes has had the feel. Like a 2002 type start it seems

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What do they show for next week?

At quick glance the trough looks more amplified and it's juicier than 00z. The mean sfc low is a bit strung out along the coast like some other guidance today. 00z had a handful of torchy cutters and I'm sure this run will too. I'm not sure there's much else to say at this point considering it's a week out.

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Euro with betetr cold air dumpage in the long range...northern tier looks pretty good. A bit of a relaxation perhaps near Dec 1-2 and then it presses the cold south. Good to see it really filling up Canada again too.

 

The ongoing evolution continues.

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Euro with betetr cold air dumpage in the long range...northern tier looks pretty good. A bit of a relaxation perhaps near Dec 1-2 and then it presses the cold south. Good to see it really filling up Canada again too.

 

The ongoing evolution continues.

That -14 to -18 on Ens south to north on the 24/25th is just incredible for this time of year

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