jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I would caution for coastal folks that the Sunday/Monday possibility is increasing rapidly on the models, while the Thanksgiving Day storm looks like a rain solution for us on the coast. The models are trending stronger on the Sunday clipper, and with the 00z to 12z suites representing a more robust event for us on the coastline and with the water temps the way they are, the baroclinicity could help us out with moisture thrown back into the cold air mass. We will have to check future trends, but NAM is beginning to show this as a sign as well. I guess we just have to wait a few more days before the shortwave in question becomes sampled, but that won't happen until its over the Great Lakes. I'm liking this clipper potential for Sunday as extremely cold air mass present will help with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Imagine if those temps verify for thanksgiving? That's absolutely frigid..... Good luck to Black Friday shoppers with that air as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Ski resorts waiting to open next week should be absolutely Frigid. Gusty Nw winds and temps 1-2 Standard Deviations above normal will not be ideal IMO. I hope things moisten up for powderfreak in the extended....all the upslope may just blow off mountain in windy arctic gusts......brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'm surprised no one is mentioning the mini snowstorm the 12z EURO depicts for coastal SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'm surprised no one is mentioning the mini snowstorm the 12z EURO depicts for coastal SNE? Read up thread...it was mentioned. Its an inverted trough and unlikely to verify as depicted at this range. But I think flakes flying on Sunday are a good bet for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Read up thread...it was mentioned. Its an inverted trough and unlikely to verify as depicted at this range. But I think flakes flying on Sunday are a good bet for many. Do you think the pattern is too progressive and something like the GFS depicting is something more reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Read up thread...it was mentioned. Its an inverted trough and unlikely to verify as depicted at this range. But I think flakes flying on Sunday are a good bet for many. Maybe we can sneak out an inch or 2 of fluff if things break right on Sunday. Hopefully it's a widespread deal..You can almost envision a fairly solid area of light/bursts of moderate snow as that potent s/w moves across with strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Do you think the pattern is too progressive and something like the GFS depicting is something more reasonable? GFS sort of shows it too, just not as intense. It's impossible to forecast that type of mesoscale event at 4 days out...so I'm not going to speculate too much. The s/w responsible has come in deeper on the 12z suite today across all guidance, so it is something to watch going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GFS sort of shows it too, just not as intense. It's impossible to forecast that type of mesoscale event at 4 days out...so I'm not going to speculate too much. The s/w responsible has come in deeper on the 12z suite today across all guidance, so it is something to watch going forward. I'm in agreement with you, I'm not saying a snowstorm is coming, but the shortwave getting stronger and digging further southeast is something to definitely watch over the next three to four days. Although the NAM is bad in this range, and questions remain in terms of its accuracy, but the NAM is a short range model and I think its possible we could be seeing an over correction to the shortwave. However I think snow is possible for everyone regardless of whether or not the inverted trough develops, or we get snow from the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Do you think the pattern is too progressive and something like the GFS depicting is something more reasonable?They'll probably be some OES if winds can stay more 340 or so. Maybe a band sets up if that happens. Just way too early to bank on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Those Inv troffs never end up where modeled this far out if at all, If we see any flakes it will be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 They'll probably be some OES if winds can stay more 340 or so. Maybe a band sets up if that happens. Just way too early to bank on the euro. I would rather bank on the disturbance going south of 40N, allowing a surface low to deepen just offshore, something like the December 20th 2010 snowstorm evolution, however time of year is against the disturbance going south of 40N. So climo is against it, and so is modeling. I would side with caution and see what the next two days of GFS runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I would rather bank on the disturbance going south of 40N, allowing a surface low to deepen just offshore, something like the December 20th 2010 snowstorm evolution, however time of year is against the disturbance going south of 40N. So climo is against it, and so is modeling. I would side with caution and see what the next two days of GFS runs show. was this the storm that models bust'd on and parts of the cape got like 10 inches but there was a sharp cut off in SE Plymouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Just coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 was this the storm that models bust'd on and parts of the cape got like 10 inches but there was a sharp cut off in SE Plymouth County. While I say yes to this question, let me refrain by saying I don't think we see more than 4" if this were to verify given the sun angle, temps in the 30s and the ground being warmer right now. However there remains the possibility that if models continue to wrap around the idea that this shortwave at H5 level is stronger than progged than this shortwave might dive enough southward to get below 40N:70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Maybe we can sneak out an inch or 2 of fluff if things break right on Sunday. Hopefully it's a widespread deal..You can almost envision a fairly solid area of light/bursts of moderate snow as that potent s/w moves across with strong winds I doubt an inch or two, but with air that cold it wouldn't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 While I say yes to this question, let me refrain by saying I don't think we see more than 4" if this were to verify given the sun angle, temps in the 30s and the ground being warmer right now. However there remains the possibility that if models continue to wrap around the idea that this shortwave at H5 level is stronger than progged than this shortwave might dive enough southward to get below 40N:70W.I dont meant to sound mean, but I will be.1) the sun angle? It's about as weak as a late Jan sun, in other words negligible. 2) warm ground argument is crap. It will stick if temps are cold enough. The ground will be much colder than the 1.5" you got 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Cape Cod is the new SW CT. Feel pretty good about the weekend chance but let's see. We've shaken off the thoughts of pronounced inside runners and are now back to a similar situation to the last snow event on CC...frontal passage and then moisture behind it. Winter's here folks...no over the river and through the woods in shorts on the way to grandmas house this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Winter's here folks...no over the river and through the woods in shorts on the way to grandmas house this year. Lol, tube tops and wife beater T's in your closet this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I dont meant to sound mean, but I will be. 1) the sun angle? It's about as weak as a late Jan sun, in other words negligible. 2) warm ground argument is crap. It will stick if temps are cold enough. The ground will be much colder than the 1.5" you got 2 weeks ago. I was trying to come with reasons why it won't snow and accumulate this weekend, but that was all I could find, other than it ends up not snowing because the disturbance moves to our north and we get nothing. But thank you for rebukking my statements, so now I know it will snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro ens are a 1-3 , 2-4 away from the coast dealio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro ens are a 1-3 , 2-4 away from the coast dealio Would take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I was trying to come with reasons why it won't snow and accumulate this weekend, but that was all I could find, other than it ends up not snowing because the disturbance moves to our north and we get nothing. But thank you for rebukking my statements, so now I know it will snow this weekend. Now you know that those statements won't matter IF it snows. Just trying to educate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro ens are a 1-3 , 2-4 away from the coast dealio Why no snow on the coast? Too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Now you know that those statements won't matter IF it snows. Just trying to educate you. Appreciate it, thanks for the education, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Now you know that those statements won't matter IF it snows. Just trying to educate you. Plus, it has already accumulated here in Harwich, MA this November, so soil temps have nothing to do with accumulating snows if we have already had a coating of snow during sunlight hours. As long as the surface temp is cold enough, it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Why no snow on the coast? Too warm? I can't see it at the moment but he should Look at 850 temps which were warm at all areas to start on the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 First of all let's get one thing straight. Baroclinic zone is NOT the Gulf Stream guy-that guy is jamesnichols. BZ is a highly respected poster-a met I believe. Gotta love the nod to colder today...... And when the cold backed off this week, somone forget to tell it that it would bust. Most areas were 20s or lower this morning. that was not modeled. I like white ground for a spell this weekend for many. I like a cold driving rainstorm possible as I drive to NJ Wednesday but if there's a hint that it will break colder I may head out Tuesday night. Princeton is a decent snow location actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 First of all let's get one thing straight. Baroclinic zone is NOT the Gulf Stream guy-that guy is jamesnichols. BZ is a highly respected poster-a met I believe. Gotta love the nod to colder today...... And when the cold backed off this week, somone forget to tell it that it would bust. Most areas were 20s or lower this morning. that was not modeled. I like white ground for a spell this weekend for many. I like a cold driving rainstorm possible as I drive to NJ Wednesday but if there's a hint that it will break colder I may head out Tuesday night. Princeton is a decent snow location actually. ya, this was replied to ....Bob the Met Princeton, NJ a decent snow location.....for a mid atlantic weenie maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.