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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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No it isn't, but it shows you a lot of members are progressive and the H5 pattern probably will need to be better overall. Just because the low is elongated doesn't mean it's wrong.

I agree with the first part, completely.  But the mean plot doesn't show synoptic highs and lows.  It doesn't show synoptic features at all.  It just shows averages, which is not the same thing.  Yes the 12z GEFS shows pressure contours in an elongated shape (which is useful as you say), but it does not represent an elongated low.  The average of a strong low center and a weak cold front might look, for example, like an elongated low on the mean plot.  But I don't think that should be interpreted as the ensemble mean showing an elongated low. 

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I agree with the first part, completely.  But the mean plot doesn't show synoptic highs and lows.  It doesn't show synoptic features at all.  It just shows averages, which is not the same thing.  Yes the 12z GEFS shows pressure contours in an elongated shape (which is useful as you say), but it does not represent an elongated low.  The average of a strong low center and a weak cold front might look, for example, like an elongated low on the mean plot.  But I don't think that should be interpreted as the ensemble mean showing an elongated low. 

 

Yes that's why I said it's probably hinting at a lot of members progressive. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

 

And BTW, you definitely can use the MSLP look on the ensembles to cheat them. For instance, if the day 10 mean shows a loose looking low west of us with 540 thicknesses, you know for a fact that it will be warmer. People will say it's not that cold (and that's probably because of the spread), but you can beat the model temps by explaining the risk to the warmer side. Same thing but opposite if you have a high building down from the north and only 540 thicknesses. The risk is colder.

 

In other news, bit of an inv trough look for cstl SE MA and the Cape Sunday. Congrats.

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Does it give all of us some snows?

 

Well that was referring to your front comment.

 

It gives you some snow showers which would probably amount to something very light verbatim, but best action is I-95 and east. I wouldn't worry about it since it's the first run to show this, but the models did come in sharper with that s/w.

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i don't like that sharp rounded look to the northern stream system. much more interaction on the 0z run

 

Both pieces of energy are rather potent. It might try something with the srn low hanging off the SE coast past day 7. It's a delicate process because too much interaction sends the low west.

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Yeah and again...we definitely will not have an answer anytime soon. Just nice to discuss models and synoptics for once. Refreshing.

 

It certainly is, Pattern had been pretty boring until recently, Just having it still being modeled and none have lost it entirely is encouraging, By Sunday, We all should be a little wiser it would seem

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