CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 In the extended, that's a nice true -EPO on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z Euro looks a little colder on Saturday then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 No it isn't, but it shows you a lot of members are progressive and the H5 pattern probably will need to be better overall. Just because the low is elongated doesn't mean it's wrong. I agree with the first part, completely. But the mean plot doesn't show synoptic highs and lows. It doesn't show synoptic features at all. It just shows averages, which is not the same thing. Yes the 12z GEFS shows pressure contours in an elongated shape (which is useful as you say), but it does not represent an elongated low. The average of a strong low center and a weak cold front might look, for example, like an elongated low on the mean plot. But I don't think that should be interpreted as the ensemble mean showing an elongated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 MOS has 39 for BOS Sunday aftn. Doubt it as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I agree with the first part, completely. But the mean plot doesn't show synoptic highs and lows. It doesn't show synoptic features at all. It just shows averages, which is not the same thing. Yes the 12z GEFS shows pressure contours in an elongated shape (which is useful as you say), but it does not represent an elongated low. The average of a strong low center and a weak cold front might look, for example, like an elongated low on the mean plot. But I don't think that should be interpreted as the ensemble mean showing an elongated low. Yes that's why I said it's probably hinting at a lot of members progressive. Sorry if it wasn't clear. And BTW, you definitely can use the MSLP look on the ensembles to cheat them. For instance, if the day 10 mean shows a loose looking low west of us with 540 thicknesses, you know for a fact that it will be warmer. People will say it's not that cold (and that's probably because of the spread), but you can beat the model temps by explaining the risk to the warmer side. Same thing but opposite if you have a high building down from the north and only 540 thicknesses. The risk is colder. In other news, bit of an inv trough look for cstl SE MA and the Cape Sunday. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 SE FTW. Congrats Messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Something to watch anyways. That s/w has trended sharper. Probably flurries and snow showers elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL Phil has a virtual snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Early fropa and colder. Man does the Euro blow anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL Phil has a virtual snow storm. On the inv trough? Appeared like it on the crude e-wall images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Lt snow for the southern folks on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Early fropa and colder. Man does the Euro blow anymore Meh, operational run 5 days out. GFS can eb just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 On the inv trough? Appeared like it on the crude e-wall images. About 0.5" QPF for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not sure I buy the euro snowstorm down in SE MA, but that s/w has trended stronger so it is something to watch. That cold air and those warmer waters are a powderkeg for any inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Meh, operational run 5 days out. GFS can eb just as bad. Does it give all of us some snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 SE FTW. Congrats Messenger. It's really touchy but I like the potential. Been signaled for over a week and now that we've gotten rid of those NW bowling balls...let's see what shakes out in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Does it give all of us some snows? Well that was referring to your front comment. It gives you some snow showers which would probably amount to something very light verbatim, but best action is I-95 and east. I wouldn't worry about it since it's the first run to show this, but the models did come in sharper with that s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Who is barcolinic zone ? The Gulf Stream guy? Thank goodness for this -EPO , i pray we dont see this disapear for several weeks at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z ECMWF looking much better than the GFS through hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro starts as rain for about all of us. We'll see where it goes. A bit elongated too thanks to dualing s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro starts as rain for about all of us. We'll see where it goes. A bit elongated too thanks to dualing s/w'si don't like that sharp rounded look to the northern stream system. much more interaction on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 i don't like that sharp rounded look to the northern stream system. much more interaction on the 0z run Both pieces of energy are rather potent. It might try something with the srn low hanging off the SE coast past day 7. It's a delicate process because too much interaction sends the low west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Both pieces of energy are rather potent. It might try something with the srn low hanging off the SE coast past day 7. It's a delicate process because too much interaction sends the low west.i want west. give me a heavy soaking rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Both pieces of energy are rather potent. It might try something with the srn low hanging off the SE coast past day 7. It's a delicate process because too much interaction sends the low west. Yeah, I'd like to see that ULL further S for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 i want west. give me a heavy soaking rain Well it's offshore and elongated through hr 180, but may brush ern areas last minute it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro starts as rain for about all of us. We'll see where it goes. A bit elongated too thanks to dualing s/w's No phase with the northern and southern stream, Stays pretty strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 No phase with the northern and southern stream, Stays pretty strung out Yeah and again...we definitely will not have an answer anytime soon. Just nice to discuss models and synoptics for once. Refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like our White Tgiving will have to come from Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yeah and again...we definitely will not have an answer anytime soon. Just nice to discuss models and synoptics for once. Refreshing. It certainly is, Pattern had been pretty boring until recently, Just having it still being modeled and none have lost it entirely is encouraging, By Sunday, We all should be a little wiser it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Turkey Day is absolutely frigid on the Euro today....it has high temps in the lower 20s over the interior...perhaps even upper teens in the highest spots. That is brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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