HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS looks like a complete miss wide-right on the Thanksgiving system. Would be a long period of dry cold if that misses. Hasn't it moved further E with the past few runs? Good snowmaking weather. It's bone dry down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 A rough couple of years? Huh? It's been a great couple of years winter wise Not 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GEFS mean has a clean phase and one consolidated low although differences in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 An old phrase once said, it's hard to get a snowstorm when SW winds precede it. This means two things. One, temps...but also the upper level pattern indicating a separate s/w. This applies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Low becomes rather elongated and meaningless on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Low becomes rather elongated and meaningless on the ensembles. Isn't that just the mean compensating for a larger spread at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You need more of a cleaner and further south phase on the GEFS. Right now it becomes more of a kidney shaped low that won't throw back a lot of moisture. Verbatim probably some anafrontal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Isn't that just the mean compensating for a larger spread at that time? It could be, but it may also be from my earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You aren't going to get any answers today. This may not resolve for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The Euro should be interesting. I'm not happy we lost the GGEM, that had been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Canadian FWIW is OTS too, but not like it matters a whole lot either way. dry begets dry an out to sea solution and dry/cold for the week would not surprise me in the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Low becomes rather elongated and meaningless on the ensembles. mean precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 An old phrase once said, it's hard to get a snowstorm when SW winds precede it. This means two things. One, temps...but also the upper level pattern indicating a separate s/w. This applies here. I'd personally like to see the northern stream s/w become the dominant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 mean precip That's in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 dry begets dry an out to sea solution and dry/cold for the week would not surprise me in the least.... Different pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GEFS cluster mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Different pattern. Different pattern, sensible weather's pretty much the same...we've lost the torch of October, but we've traded it for cold/dry with some warm spells mixed in....Nov averaging pretty close to normal for most locales, but precip remains quite low, .55 for BDR Month to date, .43 for BDL, .58 for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GEFS cluster mean That was the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 GEFS cluster mean That is the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I see what has happened. Subtle discontinuity in the handling of the western N/A ridge passing through D4, in terms of position and amplitude, is causing a subtle timing variance between the 00z and 12z runs, re the ejection of the SW closed low. This type of modeling behavior is pretty classic as an error/correction for D7. We'll just have to see where the truth sits. But the origin of the discontinuity is actually out in the middle latitude Pacific domain, where L/W is slightly west at the 00z position, D4, and that cause slightly less ridge to force the ejection in a more timely fashion. The end result is that the N stream amplitude runs out ahead of the S stream, and the backside mean NVA/confluence then smashes the S stream into submission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Different pattern, sensible weather's pretty much the same...we've lost the torch of October, but we've traded it for cold/dry with some warm spells mixed in....Nov averaging pretty close to normal for most locales, but precip remains quite low, .55 for BDR Month to date, .43 for BDL, .58 for BOS It doesn't matter. If you miss this storm..it's pure bad luck..not because of a death SE ridge . I'm not worried about QPF even if this is OTS. We'll chat this up come April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 All the QPF from Aug through early November made me worry for a cold and wet winter for '11-'12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 God I hope not....they typically suck up here...very tough to get a good track. Phil on the other hand... In Waterbury ct. 39 here, stii 34/14 St the pit. Off to Philly. Not my favorite either mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Look at the monster spread on the GEFS....this is all you really need to know 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It doesn't matter. If you miss this storm..it's pure bad luck..not because of a death SE ridge . I'm not worried about QPF even if this is OTS. We'll chat this up come April.Is there any sort of pattern/set up leading into winter that would have u concern'd about a dry season. No panic, but ya know ...some caution flagsI mean we know it cant get less active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Is there any sort of pattern/set up leading into winter that would have u concern'd about a dry season. No panic, but ya know ...some caution flags Consistent SE ridge and/or Monster Bering Sea trough in combo with a +AO. If we have some sort of dateline ridging...chances are precip amounts won't be a huge worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 That is the 06z run. Yea like yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yea like yours Will's image is the 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Isn't that just the mean compensating for a larger spread at that time? Yeah kind of like that. The contours on the surface chart indicate a true low center. The contours on an ensemble plot do NOT represent a discrete low center. Totally different thing. One contour map represents a modeled physical reality, the other is just mathematical averaging. Like you say, the shape of the contours further out in time is a function of the spread. As we approach shorter ranges, the mean plot will look more and more like an operational run. The shape and magnitude of an ensemble mean should not be interpreted as a discrete solution, esp in the mid and long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yeah kind of like that. The contours on the surface chart indicate a true low center. The contours on an ensemble plot do NOT represent a discrete low center. Totally different thing. One contour map represents a modeled physical reality, the other is just mathematical averaging. Like you say, the shape of the contours further out in time is a function of the spread. As we approach shorter ranges, the mean plot will look more and more like an operational run. The shape and magnitude of an ensemble mean should not be interpreted as a discrete solution, esp in the mid and long range. No it isn't, but it shows you a lot of members are progressive and the H5 pattern probably will need to be better overall. Just because the low is elongated doesn't mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.