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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Different pattern.

Different pattern, sensible weather's pretty much the same...we've lost the torch of October, but we've traded it for cold/dry with some warm spells mixed in....Nov averaging pretty close to normal for most locales, but precip remains quite low, .55 for BDR Month to date, .43 for BDL, .58 for BOS

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I see what has happened.  

 

Subtle discontinuity in the handling of the western N/A ridge passing through D4, in terms of position and amplitude, is causing a subtle timing variance between the 00z and 12z runs, re the ejection of the SW closed low.  This type of modeling behavior is pretty classic as an error/correction for D7.  We'll just have to see where the truth sits.  But the origin of the discontinuity is actually out in the middle latitude Pacific domain, where L/W is slightly west at the 00z position, D4, and that cause slightly less ridge to force the ejection in a more timely fashion.   

 

The end result is that the N stream amplitude runs out ahead of the S stream, and the backside mean NVA/confluence then smashes the S stream into submission. 

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Different pattern, sensible weather's pretty much the same...we've lost the torch of October, but we've traded it for cold/dry with some warm spells mixed in....Nov averaging pretty close to normal for most locales, but precip remains quite low, .55 for BDR Month to date, .43 for BDL, .58 for BOS

 

It doesn't matter. If you miss this storm..it's pure bad luck..not because of a death SE ridge . I'm not worried about QPF even if this is OTS. We'll chat this up come April.

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It doesn't matter. If you miss this storm..it's pure bad luck..not because of a death SE ridge . I'm not worried about QPF even if this is OTS. We'll chat this up come April.

Is there any sort of pattern/set up leading into winter that would have u concern'd about a dry season. No panic, but ya know ...some caution flags

I mean we know it cant get less active

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Is there any sort of pattern/set up leading into winter that would have u concern'd about a dry season. No panic, but ya know ...some caution flags

 

Consistent SE ridge and/or Monster Bering Sea trough in combo with a +AO.

 

If we have some sort of dateline ridging...chances are precip amounts won't be a huge worry.

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Isn't that just the mean compensating for a larger spread at that time?

Yeah kind of like that.  The contours on the surface chart indicate a true low center.  The contours on an ensemble plot do NOT represent a discrete low center.  Totally different thing.  One contour map represents a modeled physical reality, the other is just mathematical averaging.  Like you say, the shape of the contours further out in time is a function of the spread.  As we approach shorter ranges, the mean plot will look more and more like an operational run.  The shape and magnitude of an ensemble mean should not be interpreted as a discrete solution, esp in the mid and long range.

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Yeah kind of like that.  The contours on the surface chart indicate a true low center.  The contours on an ensemble plot do NOT represent a discrete low center.  Totally different thing.  One contour map represents a modeled physical reality, the other is just mathematical averaging.  Like you say, the shape of the contours further out in time is a function of the spread.  As we approach shorter ranges, the mean plot will look more and more like an operational run.  The shape and magnitude of an ensemble mean should not be interpreted as a discrete solution, esp in the mid and long range.

 

No it isn't, but it shows you a lot of members are progressive and the H5 pattern probably will need to be better overall. Just because the low is elongated doesn't mean it's wrong.

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