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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Some snow in the air Monday night. Lets enjoy this earlier than recent years taste of deep winter!

 

YUP, too much worrying about the distant future when we have legit early season winter weather right in front of us.

 

The GFS yet again did a good job at pinpointing the potential threat next week even in the 10-15 day range. Whether it plays out or not remains to be seen but at least when it seems to have a threat window something occurs in that period.  Major improvement over just a few years ago.

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As fast as everything is moving..and the cold front clearing coast early morn Sat and cold air coming quicker..it seems the timeframe of the coastal should also move up..So instead of T day..Maybe it's Tuesday night into Wed. I highly doubt there will be a clipper Tuesday nite and a big coastal 24 hours later. It's one or the other

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YUP, too much worrying about the distant future when we have legit early season winter weather right in front of us.

 

The GFS yet again did a good job at pinpointing the potential threat next week even in the 10-15 day range. Whether it plays out or not remains to be seen but at least when it seems to have a threat window something occurs in that period.  Major improvement over just a few years ago.

 

:weenie:

Guess you missed the last page of discussion for this weekend and early next week.

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As fast as everything is moving..and the cold front clearing coast early morn Sat and cold air coming quicker..it seems the timeframe of the coastal should also move up..So instead of T day..Maybe it's Tuesday night into Wed. I highly doubt there will be a clipper Tuesday nite and a big coastal 24 hours later. It's one or the other

 

There is a little something Monday night bringing a little ra and/or snow for some. The T-day storm is highly dependent on what happens with the cutoff.

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Nice hit for the fish on this 12z GFS run. It seems to hold back the southern stream energy for decent phasing. In fact that southern stream piece is why you see almost a secondary low form behind the initial one. It leaves the whole thing baggy and weak and doesn't support a real bomb. Timing is everything as always. We will see what future runs have in store.

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There is a little something Monday night bringing a little ra and/or snow for some. The T-day storm is highly dependent on what happens with the cutoff.

IMO it's one or the other..or one morphs into the other or helps/hurts depending on how it plays out. We see this many times where models have 2 separate systems and it ends up morphing into 1

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IMO it's one or the other..or one morphs into the other or helps/hurts depending on how it plays out. We see this many times where models have 2 separate systems and it ends up morphing into 1

 

Well these are separate so they won't really morph. It's either the storm comes up, or goes out to sea. The same trough in the nrn stream that brings a weak system through Monday Night has a back side s/w that will try to dance with the srn stream...but the Monday Night system IMHO won't really have too much of an effect.

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Northern stream out of phase on this run of the oper. GFS.   Lots of time to have features morph around a bit on future charts before the truth comes into better focus. 

 

Cautionaries ...    The GFS has an E-W bias to some degree, much in the same way the Euro has a N-S bias, for that time range.  Hard to say if that is in play on this run, but zipping the northern stream amplitude on a shallow trajectory so quickly up toward NS and beyond, does hearken to that.     The other thing is, in spite of that, the GFS schooled the Euro on a system three weeks ago for this type of time range, when it abandoned a coastal idea and the Euro held onto it for 2 full additional days.  That could very well have been a fluke, less seasonal and/or inherent model performance trends.   Have to wait and see...  Seems about even, 50% pros and cons butting heads here. 

 

The overall theme around that though is an interesting apparent periodicity with EPO cold dumbs that cut into the GL-NE.   

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Well these are separate so they won't really morph. It's either the storm comes up, or goes out to sea. The same trough in the nrn stream that brings a weak system through Monday Night has a back side s/w that will try to dance with the srn stream...but the Monday Night system IMHO won't really have too much of an effect.

Yea many times like Jan 05 we get this Arctic intrusion with a good windex event then the big dog. Pretty cool when that happens, sets the stage sort of.

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:weenie:

Guess you missed the last page of discussion for this weekend and early next week.

 

 

In the November discussion there's a lot of December talk I was just worried about running afoul of the moderating rules.

  ;)

 

There really has been so much talk of what can go wrong.  We're muting out the mild and the cold shots are impressive and are accompanied by potential flakeage.  It's been a rough few years so everyone is in the "what can go wrong" mindset, but this has looked for some time to be a more traditional winter at least for the foreseeable future. <--(bad choice of words, but I thought it was pretty clear that we're looking good and have been for some time.  Some threats will work out, others won't obviously, but it's predominantly cool/cold)

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In the November discussion there's a lot of December talk I was just worried about running afoul of the moderating rules.

  ;)

 

There really has been so much talk of what can go wrong.  We're muting out the mild and the cold shots are impressive and are accompanied by potential flakeage.  It's been a rough few years so everyone is in the "what can go wrong" mindset, but this has looked for some time to be a more traditional winter at least for the foreseeable future. <--(bad choice of words, but I thought it was pretty clear that we're looking good and have been for some time.  Some threats will work out, others won't obviously, but it's predominantly cool/cold)

A rough couple of years? Huh? It's been a great couple of years winter wise

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