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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Well the T-day threat is still alive and well...ensembles actually were slightly later with it...so it would be more of a Wed night deal. There isn't a whole ton of cold air, so we'll need a pretty good track for mostly frozen...but beggars can't be choosers. Its pretty good for 11/27.

euro Ens trended much colder for 7-10

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euro Ens trended much colder for 7-10

 

 

I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer.

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I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer.

They look like a turn to colder in the 11-15 day from my view. Nice Aleutian ridge/north ATL ridge.
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Here are 3 pieces that I've noticed that will impact our weather next week.  #1 is the one that could give us a clipper type system early next week if it digs far enough S to tap some moisture.  It could amount to nothing though.  #2 and #3 are the pieces that are giving us the T-Day system as modeled.  As you can see the image is still 120h so a lot can change.

 

The image is from last nights 00z Euro.  The GFS and GGEM in some form or another have all 3 pieces as well.

 

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I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer.

I just thougt 3-4 degrees C ,colder on days 8-10 at 850 was colder

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well, it can't get drier...lol.   I just hope the storm next week doesnt disappear or trend drier etc like the last 2 months of model runs vs verification.

 

Well I suppose it could go out to sea, but if a coastal develops...I consider it a win because we really have not had any this Fall. Things are changing and I'm fairly confident we will start seeing more precip chances. Whether we are 1" above or 1" below next month I can't say obviously.

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Looks like a nice day Saturday although it will cool off in the aftn. The real chill awaits the second front probably for Sunday.

 

 

Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels.

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Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels.

 

It wouldn't shock me to see something Saturday Night and then Sunday as the vorticity passes through.

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The GFS tries to develop an inv trough in the Gulf of Maine too.

"wintry appeal" for Sun.

Yeah, that inv trough signature has been there for a couple days.  I would not expect that to pan out.

Still looking at the clipper too behind this for Tue/Wed.  May lift too far N for us but perhaps NNE gets in on it.

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It wouldn't shock me to see something Saturday Night and then Sunday as the vorticity passes through.

 

 

Total Totals get near 50 as the core of the H5 anaomly gets overhead Sunday morning...some pretty steep ML lapse rates, so any surviving flurries/snowshowers will be able to sustain themselves. So it wouldn't be shocking if some folks saw brief moderate snow...you'd typically like the lower levels a little more moist for true WINDEX squall potential...but the hint of inverted trough and steep lapse rates will probably mean plenty of flurries and snow showers around.

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Total Totals get near 50 as the core of the H5 anaomly gets overhead Sunday morning...some pretty steep ML lapse rates, so any surviving flurries/snowshowers will be able to sustain themselves. So it wouldn't be shocking if some folks saw brief moderate snow...you'd typically like the lower levels a little more moist for true WINDEX squall potential...but the hint of inverted trough and steep lapse rates will probably mean plenty of flurries and snow showers around.

 

Yeah agreed. You can even see it pivot through on the models fairly well....the instability and RH that is. Those are rather unstable soundings. The sounding for BOS at 12z is sweet in the 700mb-600mb layer.

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