Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Well the T-day threat is still alive and well...ensembles actually were slightly later with it...so it would be more of a Wed night deal. There isn't a whole ton of cold air, so we'll need a pretty good track for mostly frozen...but beggars can't be choosers. Its pretty good for 11/27. euro Ens trended much colder for 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 euro Ens trended much colder for 7-10 I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer.They look like a turn to colder in the 11-15 day from my view. Nice Aleutian ridge/north ATL ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Quite a bit of model support out there for a 7 day threat, Could wrench a few holiday plans next week especially for interior folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The outcome is the same. Lame fropa. Big cold though comes in Saturday night and especially Sunday, but it's a quick hitter. Begins to turn a bit milder Monday. same ol pattern. Will we ever get out of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Here are 3 pieces that I've noticed that will impact our weather next week. #1 is the one that could give us a clipper type system early next week if it digs far enough S to tap some moisture. It could amount to nothing though. #2 and #3 are the pieces that are giving us the T-Day system as modeled. As you can see the image is still 120h so a lot can change. The image is from last nights 00z Euro. The GFS and GGEM in some form or another have all 3 pieces as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 same ol pattern. Will we ever get out of it? I'm not worried about precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I dunno if I'd say "much" colder. They were a bit colder...esp around D10-11...but still that same level of uncertainty where you don't gain a whole lot of confidence in cold the week after T-day. I wouldn't be confident of mildness either...its just that type of pattern right now. We'll see if they trend somewhere as we get closer. I just thougt 3-4 degrees C ,colder on days 8-10 at 850 was colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If the end of the 06z GFS even comes close to being correct, northern Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia are going to get buried first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL. torontoblizzard and Damage in Tolland are neck-and-neck in the race to most predictably-annoying poster All I was saying was that they looked decent in the long range especially around D13-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'm not worried about precip at all. I'm not worried about precip at all. When do you see us getting wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 When do you see us getting wetter? I'm thinking next week and beyond. I'm not saying we'll avg 8" of precip a month, but it will get wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'm thinking next week and beyond. I'm not saying we'll avg 8" of precip a month, but it will get wetter. well, it can't get drier...lol. I just hope the storm next week doesnt disappear or trend drier etc like the last 2 months of model runs vs verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 well, it can't get drier...lol. I just hope the storm next week doesnt disappear or trend drier etc like the last 2 months of model runs vs verification. Well I suppose it could go out to sea, but if a coastal develops...I consider it a win because we really have not had any this Fall. Things are changing and I'm fairly confident we will start seeing more precip chances. Whether we are 1" above or 1" below next month I can't say obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL. torontoblizzard and Damage in Tolland are neck-and-neck in the race to most predictably-annoying poster Really necessary? Said with lots of warm/fuzzy feelings. Pretty good push of cold last night...sounded like winter with the wind howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 NAM is even quicker now with Fropa Saturday. Looks like it moves thru entire area bey 8:00am. Cold weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Still a chance of sneaky mixed precip in wrn areas for Friday morning if we can radiate a bit Thursday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 More importantly the Turkey storm is still on the table lets see how the models cook it. I'm starting to get hungry already. Look at that 98% of Canada covered with snow-cover and very early prairie lakes frozen over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like a nice day Saturday although it will cool off in the aftn. The real chill awaits the second front probably for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like a nice day Saturday although it will cool off in the aftn. The real chill awaits the second front probably for Sunday. Could be a squally type day too with the ULL passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like a nice day Saturday although it will cool off in the aftn. The real chill awaits the second front probably for Sunday. Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z is colder up here at the same time frame as the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Could be a squally type day too with the ULL passing overhead. The GFS tries to develop an inv trough in the Gulf of Maine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels. It wouldn't shock me to see something Saturday Night and then Sunday as the vorticity passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The GFS tries to develop an inv trough in the Gulf of Maine too. "wintry appeal" for Sun. Yeah, that inv trough signature has been there for a couple days. I would not expect that to pan out. Still looking at the clipper too behind this for Tue/Wed. May lift too far N for us but perhaps NNE gets in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS is further south with the secondary clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 It wouldn't shock me to see something Saturday Night and then Sunday as the vorticity passes through. Total Totals get near 50 as the core of the H5 anaomly gets overhead Sunday morning...some pretty steep ML lapse rates, so any surviving flurries/snowshowers will be able to sustain themselves. So it wouldn't be shocking if some folks saw brief moderate snow...you'd typically like the lower levels a little more moist for true WINDEX squall potential...but the hint of inverted trough and steep lapse rates will probably mean plenty of flurries and snow showers around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Some snow in the air Monday night. Lets enjoy this earlier than recent years taste of deep winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Models look like they are starting to pick up on the depth of the colder air as we get closer in as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Total Totals get near 50 as the core of the H5 anaomly gets overhead Sunday morning...some pretty steep ML lapse rates, so any surviving flurries/snowshowers will be able to sustain themselves. So it wouldn't be shocking if some folks saw brief moderate snow...you'd typically like the lower levels a little more moist for true WINDEX squall potential...but the hint of inverted trough and steep lapse rates will probably mean plenty of flurries and snow showers around. Yeah agreed. You can even see it pivot through on the models fairly well....the instability and RH that is. Those are rather unstable soundings. The sounding for BOS at 12z is sweet in the 700mb-600mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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