Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame? GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night. Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE. Might be something to watch. f162.gif Yup. Posted earlier about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yup. Posted earlier about it. I wonder if this could be one of those where most of us were focused on what were considered larger threats like Friday/Sat and then the Thanksgiving system, and instead neither of those work out but a widespread dusting-2" greets folks when they wake up Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yup. Posted earlier about it. I just hope we don't have the core of the cold overhead and keep the action south through the next 7-10 days. Certainly could happen that way. Nice to see everything still on the table though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 FWIW - Euro ensembles are very juiced up for the Thanksgiving storm. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 00z op run trend north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 FWIW - Euro ensembles are very juiced up for the Thanksgiving storm. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 00z op run trend north and west. Honestly if stuff falls into place that could become a fairly significant snow event for the area. A lot has to come together obviously though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Seeing signs of a brief warm up to end of november with another significant cold shot moving into the east for the dec 3rd to dec 8th period. Expecting to see a wave 2 response in the strat in the 6-10 with a strong EAMT surge as well. Pressures are expected to lower west of the tibetan plateau in asia, so this should help bring the positive 10mb temp anoms poleward. This shifts the vortex into the NAO region... so until the vortex shifts, look for the core of the cold to stay across the northern tier with a progressive look to the pattern and any blocking remaining mostly east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I wonder if this could be one of those where most of us were focused on what were considered larger threats like Friday/Sat and then the Thanksgiving system, and instead neither of those work out but a widespread dusting-2" greets folks when they wake up Tuesday. I just hope we don't have the core of the cold overhead and keep the action south through the next 7-10 days. Certainly could happen that way. Nice to see everything still on the table though. It's snuck in there for sure. Will have to monitor closely since the atmosphere will be pretty cold so won't take much to snow. It's possible but I feel its a lower probability given the pattern. Cutoff low in the SW will lead to higher heights in the SE. Should promote a storm track off the mid atl, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It's snuck in there for sure. Will have to monitor closely since the atmosphere will be pretty cold so won't take much to snow. It's possible but I feel its a lower probability given the pattern. Cutoff low in the SW will lead to higher heights in the SE. Should promote a storm track off the mid atl, no? Last weekend into Monday's model runs had the system for Fri/Sat (which is now so far NW it's essentially a FROPA for us) much farther SE, and the cut-off low in the SW was also progged much further east. As the models adjusted that feature westward, it seemed to excite that SE ridge and now we have a low going wayyyy NW of our area. Next week may be the same thing, if the cut-off in the SW starts being progged a little further west...I think we'd see that system likewise correct westward a bit in response to the building heights in the southeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Whatever happens next week, I gotta imagine there will be a strong baroclinic zone and sharp gradient along the coast with that anomalous cold airmass in place and the still warm adjacent coastal waters...hopefully we can get some system to take advantage of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame? GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night. Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE. Might be something to watch. Yeah the GGEM has been flagging that little critter for a few cycles. Both the GFS and Euro have an impulse but N as you've noted. I'd caution that the GGEM has a N-S bias in this time range, though. Doesn't mean it can't happen of course, but in knowing that, and seeing the other models N doesn't help it's cause much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Epic 00z GFS run on an apparent dead thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 That's a pretty big storm..... Question is...... Drum roll please..... Who's rain who's snow...... It's a week out so really splitting hairs I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Epic 00z GFS run on an apparent dead thread Could you or someone elaborate on this 00z GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Could you or someone elaborate on this 00z GFS run? that about sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Could you or someone elaborate on this 00z GFS run? Has that T-G storm and then constant cold going right out to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Has that T-G storm and then constant cold going right out to the end. Weenies will be out in force in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 That's a pretty big storm..... Question is...... Drum roll please..... Who's rain who's snow...... It's a week out so really splitting hairs I suppose Can't tell at this time range. There's been a system flagged for the 25-29th for some time, so seeing runs continue to come in and hit that period is interesting; also because they are not all wet. Also, because there are larger scale statistical indicators have been honing that period for some time. Personally I think winter is trying to hit hard and early this year and we've been seeing a lot of growing pains in the last 2 weeks of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GGEM is in on the noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 what time is the euro due out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 what time is the euro due out? Should be starting now for us who don't pay It's delayed on the freebie sites... Doesn't matter much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Some encourging things to be sure. Echo PF's comment about the baroclinic zone with the warm waters. Of course, that's all for naught if the track ends up sucking. I like where it is now, though. Too bad it's more than a week out. It really is shaping up to be a bit nipply at gillette Sunday night. The forecasted high out here on Sunday is currently pegged at 28* and the overnight low of 14*. Suspect it will be similar in Pats country. 21.5/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 06 GFS continues the idea of a system on Wednesday. Obviously things will shift, but as portrayed now, looks like a good track for many, even for those who aren't all snow. Of course, it's only 180 hours away, so we can lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Signal remains strong for something near or offshore next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Big cold coming this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 22.1F in Hubbardston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If models are right, most of us are in the 20s Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro seems much faster with fropa Saturday vs 12Z and is way less robust with warmth ahead of it. Kevin, you may preserve the life of your curtains by not touching them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro has a nasty soaking rainstorm for all of SNE even up into S VT and NH next week. Let's see if we can trend this thing colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Seems like Euro is kind of on its own with that torch on Saturday. Part of it seems to be its much slower than the others on timing of fropa. GFS has it early Sat am. With the progressive pattern, bet on an earlier passage Yeah Jerry..I posted this last night and it was mocked and questioned by a couple mets..but as has been the case..The euro has blown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro has a nasty soaking rainstorm for all of SNE even up into S VT and NH next week. Let's see if we can trend this thing colder Ensembles are way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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