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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame?  GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night.

 

Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE.

 

Might be something to watch.

 

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Yup. Posted earlier about it.

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Seeing signs of a brief warm up to end of november with another significant cold shot moving into the east for the dec 3rd to dec 8th period. Expecting to see a wave 2 response in the strat in the 6-10 with a strong EAMT surge as well.  Pressures are expected to lower west of the tibetan plateau in asia, so this should help bring the positive 10mb temp anoms poleward. This shifts the vortex into the NAO region... so until the vortex shifts, look for the core of the cold to stay across the northern tier with a progressive look to the pattern and any blocking remaining mostly east based.

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I wonder if this could be one of those where most of us were focused on what were considered larger threats like Friday/Sat and then the Thanksgiving system, and instead neither of those work out but a widespread dusting-2" greets folks when they wake up Tuesday.

  

I just hope we don't have the core of the cold overhead and keep the action south through the next 7-10 days. Certainly could happen that way.

 

Nice to see everything still on the table though.

It's snuck in there for sure. Will have to monitor closely since the atmosphere will be pretty cold so won't take much to snow.

It's possible but I feel its a lower probability given the pattern. Cutoff low in the SW will lead to higher heights in the SE. Should promote a storm track off the mid atl, no?

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It's snuck in there for sure. Will have to monitor closely since the atmosphere will be pretty cold so won't take much to snow.

It's possible but I feel its a lower probability given the pattern. Cutoff low in the SW will lead to higher heights in the SE. Should promote a storm track off the mid atl, no?

Last weekend into Monday's model runs had the system for Fri/Sat (which is now so far NW it's essentially a FROPA for us) much farther SE, and the cut-off low in the SW was also progged much further east. As the models adjusted that feature westward, it seemed to excite that SE ridge and now we have a low going wayyyy NW of our area.

Next week may be the same thing, if the cut-off in the SW starts being progged a little further west...I think we'd see that system likewise correct westward a bit in response to the building heights in the southeast US.

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Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame?  GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night.

 

Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE.

 

Might be something to watch.

 

 

 

Yeah the GGEM has been flagging that little critter for a few cycles.  Both the GFS and Euro have an impulse but N as you've noted.  I'd caution that the GGEM has a N-S bias in this time range, though. Doesn't mean it can't happen of course, but in knowing that, and seeing the other models N doesn't help it's cause much.

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That's a pretty big storm..... Question is...... Drum roll please..... Who's rain who's snow...... It's a week out so really splitting hairs I suppose

Can't tell at this time range. There's been a system flagged for the 25-29th for some time, so seeing runs continue to come in and hit that period is interesting; also because they are not all wet. Also, because there are larger scale statistical indicators have been honing that period for some time.   

 

Personally I think winter is trying to hit hard and early this year and we've been seeing a lot of growing pains in the last 2 weeks of modeling. 

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Some encourging things to be sure.  Echo PF's comment about the baroclinic zone with the warm waters.  Of course, that's all for naught if the track ends up sucking.  :)  I like where it is now, though.  Too bad it's more than a week out.

 

It really is shaping up to be a bit nipply at gillette Sunday night.  The forecasted high out here on Sunday is currently pegged at 28* and the overnight low of 14*.  Suspect it will be similar in Pats country.

 

21.5/14

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Seems like Euro is kind of on its own with that torch on Saturday. Part of it seems to be its much slower than the others on timing of fropa. GFS has it early Sat am. With the progressive pattern, bet on an earlier passage

Yeah Jerry..I posted this last night and it was mocked and questioned by a couple mets..but as has been the case..The euro has blown

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