weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pacific still wants to cooperate. 1993 continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pacific still wants to cooperate. 1993 continues. just looked at Euro Op after reading posts first, always a mistake. Cold and snow chances. Day 10 is not the horror show I imagined reading here, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 that mean pattern would probably be good below 40N, yes? progressive and a bit suppressed for NE? Or course it is just a mean... Possibly, yeah ... actually, this pattern in the means might be a icer for western MV/lower Plains region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Lord knows I've been wrong before but I don't see a warm first few days of December... The EPO rebulges downward, and despite whatever operational trends there are for the NAO, the nightly derivatives are still indicating a -NAO actually. All the while, the AO is corrected down to neutral. Perhaps a transient warm sector before a predominating cold signal reloads, I could go with that. We'll see. Well what I mean is the potential for a split flow in combo with a +NAO...that may send a wave nearby or allow the pattern to relax and modify for a bit before another reload. I think that is to be expected given we are still premature in the game, but we'll see. I do see the tendency for the cold to want to remain more west at first. Classic Aleutian ridge +NAO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 yeah i think it's definitely a fine line after the first cold shot gets through here. maybe the second has legs as well (around / just after turkey day). from there...the flow looks rather flat across the conus but there's plenty of cold in canada to offset that. i just hope we aren't watching -20C 850s continuously drop to james bay and then rotate due E. If we can keep that amplitude of a ridge (which for a mean look that far out is rather strong) I'd feel pretty good about December because you know eventually the whole cold dome would sag south a bit. However as we noted before, lose the amplitude and it's lows going up Toronto Blizzard's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 just looked at Euro Op after reading posts first, always a mistake. Cold and snow chances. Day 10 is not the horror show I imagined reading here, geez. Its pretty ugly...we'd warm up in a hurry of the D10 OP verified...but luckily its an OP run beyond 6-7 days...its pretty much meaningless. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty (more than average for D10) in that time range. The Wednesday threat next week is still very much alive on the ensembles...they were more robust than the OP run. Maybe we can get that one inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 just looked at Euro Op after reading posts first, always a mistake. Cold and snow chances. Day 10 is not the horror show I imagined reading here, geez. agree to disagree it's very cold up through and beyond turkey day. the only point was...the end is not good. doesn't mean it will evolve that way by any stretch but days 11 --> on that prog would be warm, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Its pretty ugly...we'd warm up in a hurry of the D10 OP verified...but luckily its an OP run beyond 6-7 days...its pretty much meaningless. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty (more than average for D10) in that time range. The Wednesday threat next week is still very much alive on the ensembles...they were more robust than the OP run. Maybe we can get that one inside of 5 days. yes, beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 personally think the smart $ is on the NAO being positive - if not strongly positive. it might dip negative for a very brief interlude...but i don't see a favorable pattern. those spaghetti charts are poo. Well, the means as of late certainly have been positive.... 2013 11 01 196.33 2013 11 02 182.60 2013 11 03 218.06 2013 11 04 228.16 2013 11 05 202.19 2013 11 06 152.73 2013 11 07 130.10 2013 11 08 116.02 2013 11 09 77.10 2013 11 10 87.50 2013 11 11 146.86 2013 11 12 129.93 2013 11 13 96.29 2013 11 14 104.76 2013 11 15 109.65 2013 11 16 96.54 2013 11 17 57.35 But I looking at the CPC and CDC, I may be wrong anyway. The CDC shows a negative interval, then out there in time a weaker positive one, then looking at CPC there is a lot of spread beyond the end of week 1. I think they were more negative looking yesterday ... heh, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I would definitely take my chances if the euro ensembles held that pattern for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well, the means as of late certainly have been positive.... 2013 11 01 196.33 2013 11 02 182.60 2013 11 03 218.06 2013 11 04 228.16 2013 11 05 202.19 2013 11 06 152.73 2013 11 07 130.10 2013 11 08 116.02 2013 11 09 77.10 2013 11 10 87.50 2013 11 11 146.86 2013 11 12 129.93 2013 11 13 96.29 2013 11 14 104.76 2013 11 15 109.65 2013 11 16 96.54 2013 11 17 57.35 But I looking at the CPC and CDC, I may be wrong anyway. The CDC shows a negative interval, then out there in time a weaker positive one, then looking at CPC there is a lot of spread beyond the end of week 1. I think they were more negative looking yesterday ... heh, we'll see. yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. also - of course, depends on how the actual "index" is being calculated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I would definitely take my chances if the euro ensembles held that pattern for December.Yea that's not a disastah at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Verbatim on the op euro for next week, that would be an inch or two of snow for some? I could be wrong in trying to learn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 agree to disagree it's very cold up through and beyond turkey day. the only point was...the end is not good. doesn't mean it will evolve that way by any stretch but days 11 --> on that prog would be warm, imho. My point was day ten itself on that op run was not in itself a bad look, I am not going to predict what a model will predict the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. Certainly ... I was just thinking back to the February event of 2006, that brought the thundersnow and 27" to Central Park (or was that 2007 ?) anyway, so I checked and it got fascinating. The phase of the NAO was very negative in the week before hand, but then ... right as the phase was flipping from negative to positive ..almost right smack on the boundary, the Feb 11 to 13th even transpired. 2006 02 10 -111.83 2006 02 11 -79.90 2006 02 12 -19.83 2006 02 13 7.01 2006 02 14 96.66 2006 02 15 171.39 Interesting ... so I checked the PNA, and it was spiking right as the storm developed, then just a couple days after it ended, it flipped negative. Seems like for at least that case, the H. Archembault stuff really fit 2006 02 01 77.68 2006 02 02 38.90 2006 02 03 61.25 2006 02 04 83.35 2006 02 05 169.82 2006 02 06 268.71 2006 02 07 291.01 2006 02 08 284.44 2006 02 09 289.70 2006 02 10 301.42 2006 02 11 317.63 2006 02 12 282.45 2006 02 13 95.62 2006 02 14 -154.39 2006 02 15 -324.48 2006 02 16 -384.60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yea that's not a disastah at all. But don't forget the word " held." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 But don't forget the word " held."Well yea isn't that the case every 12 hours?, newly updated Euro op and ens by the way started at 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 So still a decent look in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 So still a decent look in the long range? Read the last two pages of posts...might give you some info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Thanks giggedy storm back on the 18z Goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Read the last two pages of posts...might give you some info. Or it may make him jump off the nearest tall building...all depends on which posts he reads. Subtle signs that the little appendage may get going in time to spare CNE and NNE this weekend. That'd be nice. When some of you are knee deep in snow on Thanksgiving the caution flags for Festivas will already be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Nice. It's 32F, the air has a tinge aroma of fireplace smoke, and our town just foisted the annual neon reminders about the winter parking ban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Seems like Euro is kind of on its own with that torch on Saturday. Part of it seems to be its much slower than the others on timing of fropa. GFS has it early Sat am. With the progressive pattern, bet on an earlier passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nice. It's 32F, the air has a tinge aroma of fireplace smoke, and our town just foisted the annual neon reminders about the winter parking ban. Yeah, a good wintery evening out there. Cold, wind blown snow showers continue to roll through...its got that arctic feel as snow sifts across the parking lot, not really accumulating to anything, but snow is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I wonder if model biases are playing a large roll in the outcome of our Thanksgiving Day storm. I mean the EURO tends to hold energy back, while the GFS seems a little progressive with the southern stream system. Too early too tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame? GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night. Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE. Might be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nice. It's 32F, the air has a tinge aroma of fireplace smoke, and our town just foisted the annual neon reminders about the winter parking ban. I always think it's cool how certain nights just play with the senses like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame? GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night. Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE. Might be something to watch. f162.gif Potentially the best chance for snow in this area that nobody is talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Umm, huh? lol - who knows what he's talking about. Seems like the forecast for next weekend and beyond is behaving. Obviously 1 or 2 winter threats but it will take us some time to pin down any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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