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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Lord knows I've been wrong before but I don't see a warm first few days of December...  The EPO rebulges downward, and despite whatever operational trends there are for the NAO, the nightly derivatives are still indicating a -NAO actually.  All the while, the AO is corrected down to neutral.   Perhaps a transient warm sector before a predominating cold signal reloads, I could go with that.  We'll see. 

 

Well what I mean is the potential for a split flow in combo with a +NAO...that may send a wave nearby or allow the pattern to relax and modify for a bit before another reload. I think that is to be expected given we are still premature in the game, but we'll see. I do see the tendency for the cold to want to remain more west at first. Classic Aleutian ridge +NAO signal.

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yeah i think it's definitely a fine line after the first cold shot gets through here. maybe the second has legs as well (around / just after turkey day). from there...the flow looks rather flat across the conus but there's plenty of cold in canada to offset that. i just hope we aren't watching -20C 850s continuously drop to james bay and then rotate due E. 

 

If we can keep that amplitude of a ridge (which for a mean look that far out is rather strong) I'd feel pretty good about December because you know eventually the whole cold dome would sag south a bit. However as we noted before, lose the amplitude and it's lows going up Toronto Blizzard's fanny.

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just looked at Euro Op after reading posts first, always a mistake. Cold and snow chances. Day 10 is not the horror show I imagined reading here, geez.

 

 

Its pretty ugly...we'd warm up in a hurry of the D10 OP verified...but luckily its an OP run beyond 6-7 days...its pretty much meaningless. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty (more than average for D10) in that time range.

 

 

The Wednesday threat next week is still very much alive on the ensembles...they were more robust than the OP run. Maybe we can get that one inside of 5 days.

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just looked at Euro Op after reading posts first, always a mistake. Cold and snow chances. Day 10 is not the horror show I imagined reading here, geez.

agree to disagree :lol:

 

it's very cold up through and beyond turkey day.

 

the only point was...the end is not good. doesn't mean it will evolve that way by any stretch but days 11 --> on that prog would be warm, imho.

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Its pretty ugly...we'd warm up in a hurry of the D10 OP verified...but luckily its an OP run beyond 6-7 days...its pretty much meaningless. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty (more than average for D10) in that time range.

 

 

The Wednesday threat next week is still very much alive on the ensembles...they were more robust than the OP run. Maybe we can get that one inside of 5 days.

yes, beat me to it.

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personally think the smart $ is on the NAO being positive - if not strongly positive. it might dip negative for a very brief interlude...but i don't see a favorable pattern. those spaghetti charts are poo.  

 

Well, the means as of late certainly have been positive....

 

2013 11 01 196.33

2013 11 02 182.60

2013 11 03 218.06

2013 11 04 228.16

2013 11 05 202.19

2013 11 06 152.73

2013 11 07 130.10

2013 11 08 116.02

2013 11 09 77.10

2013 11 10 87.50

2013 11 11 146.86

2013 11 12 129.93

2013 11 13 96.29

2013 11 14 104.76

2013 11 15 109.65

2013 11 16 96.54

2013 11 17 57.35

 

But I looking at the CPC and CDC, I may be wrong anyway.  The CDC shows a negative interval, then out there in time a weaker positive one, then looking at CPC there is a lot of spread beyond the end of week 1.   I think they were more negative looking yesterday ... heh, we'll see. 

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Well, the means as of late certainly have been positive....

 

2013 11 01 196.33

2013 11 02 182.60

2013 11 03 218.06

2013 11 04 228.16

2013 11 05 202.19

2013 11 06 152.73

2013 11 07 130.10

2013 11 08 116.02

2013 11 09 77.10

2013 11 10 87.50

2013 11 11 146.86

2013 11 12 129.93

2013 11 13 96.29

2013 11 14 104.76

2013 11 15 109.65

2013 11 16 96.54

2013 11 17 57.35

 

But I looking at the CPC and CDC, I may be wrong anyway.  The CDC shows a negative interval, then out there in time a weaker positive one, then looking at CPC there is a lot of spread beyond the end of week 1.   I think they were more negative looking yesterday ... heh, we'll see. 

yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. 

 

of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. 

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yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. 

 

of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. 

also - of course, depends on how the actual "index" is being calculated. 

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agree to disagree :lol:

 

it's very cold up through and beyond turkey day.

 

the only point was...the end is not good. doesn't mean it will evolve that way by any stretch but days 11 --> on that prog would be warm, imho.

My point was day ten itself on that op run was not in itself a bad look, I am not going to predict what a model will predict the next day or two.
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yeah...i just see a giant vortex parked west of greenland. i assume the negative in the charts is coming from some of the very modest ridging that wants to show up from time to time east of greenland...but that's bootleg, imo. i feel like that deep negative height anomaly over the davis strait would rule the show from a NAO perspective. 

 

of course, as others have mentioned - any you as well - it's not the be all, end all. 

 

Certainly ... I was just thinking back to the February event of 2006, that brought the thundersnow and 27" to Central Park (or was that 2007 ?)   anyway, so I checked and it got fascinating.  The phase of the NAO was very negative in the week before hand, but then ... right as the phase was flipping from negative to positive ..almost right smack on the boundary, the Feb 11 to 13th even transpired. 

 

2006 02 10 -111.83

2006 02 11 -79.90

2006 02 12 -19.83

2006 02 13 7.01

2006 02 14 96.66

2006 02 15 171.39

 

Interesting ... so I checked the PNA,  and it was spiking right as the storm developed, then just a couple days after it ended, it flipped negative.   Seems like for at least that case, the H. Archembault stuff really fit

 

2006 02 01 77.68

2006 02 02 38.90

2006 02 03 61.25

2006 02 04 83.35

2006 02 05 169.82

2006 02 06 268.71

2006 02 07 291.01

2006 02 08 284.44

2006 02 09 289.70

2006 02 10 301.42

2006 02 11 317.63

2006 02 12 282.45

2006 02 13 95.62

2006 02 14 -154.39

2006 02 15 -324.48

2006 02 16 -384.60

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Read the last two pages of posts...might give you some info.

 

Or it may make him jump off the nearest tall building...all depends on which posts he reads.

 

Subtle signs that the little appendage may get going in time to spare CNE and NNE this weekend.  That'd be nice.

 

When some of you are knee deep in snow on Thanksgiving the caution flags for Festivas will already be flying.

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Nice.  It's 32F, the air has a tinge aroma of fireplace smoke, and our town just foisted the annual neon reminders about the winter parking ban.  

 

Yeah, a good wintery evening out there.  Cold, wind blown snow showers continue to roll through...its got that arctic feel as snow sifts across the parking lot, not really accumulating to anything, but snow is in the air.

 

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Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame?  GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night.

 

Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE.

 

Might be something to watch.

 

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Anyone notice the sneaky clipper in the Mon/Tue time frame? GFS has it tracking further north, but GGEM was showing a light snowfall across SNE on Monday night.

Even the GFS has some light QPF at times along the SNE coast early next week, but here's the GGEM's 12z run showing the snow for you guys in SNE.

Might be something to watch.

f162.gif

Potentially the best chance for snow in this area that nobody is talking about

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