Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It's got that little appendage pushing across SNE as if it wants to pop a secondary. Not that it will do us any good, but I'm not sold on warm temps for all of us like it shows. sort of similar to this past sunday when places like CON held in the 30s for much of the daylight hours with calm winds as some damming set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Witch's tit Sunday/Monday on the GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Cold is doing better as ginxy says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Remember the 850 model outputs for today, -5 or so, current analysis has -10 to NH Mass border with -8 into NE CT. Cold they were actually colder than that...but just early on in the day with rather quick modification through the afternoon and tonight. i think yesterday's GFS had ~-10C to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Remember the 850 model outputs for today, -5 or so, current analysis has -10 to NH Mass border with -8 into NE CT. Cold Last week's depiction was much colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 sort of similar to this past sunday when places like CON held in the 30s for much of the daylight hours with calm winds as some damming set-up. Yeah that's what I thought of as well. Maybe similar but a little more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I did not see it, but co-workers said it was flurrying here in Leominster this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Sub 30 highs for some on Sunday and Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GFS completely loses the cutoff as it moves E. I don't buy that for one minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Had some flurries here earlier. Cold and windy.... Completely under dressed for the weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GFS completely loses the cutoff as it moves E. I don't buy that for one minute. It closes back off at 500mb south of Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That cutoff is going to mess around with the weather starting this weekend. Expect volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well we've got reason to think it might stay cold @WXRISKCOM: ***US ENERGY WEATHER ** strong signals from incr Pos SOI ...neg WPO &d neg EPO that DEC 2013= Below Normal Temps eastern half of conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't trust any guidance since 00z really. The symphony was playing a kind of song and than rather inharmonious someone hit a wrong note. The whole structure of the flow has got some continuity issues all of the sudden. It seems more a mere coincidence that the new paradigm still delivers chilly air masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well we've got reason to think it might stay cold @WXRISKCOM: ***US ENERGY WEATHER ** strong signals from incr Pos SOI ...neg WPO &d neg EPO that DEC 2013= Below Normal Temps eastern half of conus More like dateline ridging. Me thinks he may be too cold for all of the east. Def a warm risk south of 40N and possibly even some warmer interludes up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 More like dateline ridging. Me thinks he may be too cold for all of the east. Def a warm risk south of 40N and possibly even some warmer interludes up here. agree. certainly don't have high confidence for the SE quarter of the lower 48...and if i had to wager right now...i'd say near or slightly above for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I thought it was suppose to stay cold in december for the northeast US because that is what the Euro Weekilies showing aren't they? plus the increase in the SOI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I thought it was suppose to stay cold in december for the northeast US because that is what the Euro Weekilies showing aren't they? plus the increase in the SOI. Well the weeklies were showing increased dateline ridging which then may force a more cold north warm south gradient...but a bit tilted thanks to the SE US ridge. ENSO is still up in the air with no real big signal from that yet...although it seems tropical forcing at least isn't hindering us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Any lake effect guru's have any thoughts on upcoming potential? Will be visiting the in-laws in Syracuse for Thanksgiving…hoping for a decent enough event Sun/Mon next week to justify packing the sleds on our trip next week. From my rusty eye seems like flow should be good for the Syracuse area to get in on some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Witch's tit Sunday/Monday on the GFS today. The colder and windier the better for Sunday night at 8.30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 sort of similar to this past sunday when places like CON held in the 30s for much of the daylight hours with calm winds as some damming set-up. It's just that time of year where it is so easy to develop that northerly ageostrophic drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It's just that time of year where it is so easy to develop that northerly ageostrophic drain. Workshop all fired up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Workshop all fired up? It's crazy. Moving into hydrology and dual-pol in a little bit. You guys are really missing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Remember the 850 model outputs for today, -5 or so, current analysis has -10 to NH Mass border with -8 into NE CT. Cold Seems to be performing as expected up here, hopefully it doesn't moderate as quick as the models have tomorrow. Back above normal for the month at MVL/BTV...we put up a +15 yesterday at MVL and BTV did back to back double digit positives during the mini-torch. Up and down, up and down. Be interesting to see where the month finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 To say the euro switched its tune is putting it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 To say the euro switched its tune is putting it lightly.Torch Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Torch Saturday? Pull the shades down south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Torch Saturday? "those forecasts of 40s and 50s are going to be in trouble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 "those forecasts of 40s and 50s are going to be in trouble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Bottom falls out for temps after the FROPA as has been discussed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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