moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 EC ensembles had another pretty decent signal for Dec 2-3. As long as the EPO cooperates, I think we'll have chances going into December...but I don't expect frigid conditions the whole time considering the Atlantic is out of synch and the GOA isn't exactly stamped in ink going forward. I nearly spit out my coffee--I read that at first as "day" 2-3 and got really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 We just had a huge burst of winds tear thru town..Gusts near 50..limbs were flying..pretty wild 10 minutes. it's calmed down some now Tolland Works Grant hill is closed tree down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I nearly spit out my coffee--I read that at first as "day" 2-3 and got really excited. Well you still have 13 cups to go on the day....lol. And those dates will be d2-3 ....in 11 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well you still have 13 cups to go on the day....lol. And those dates will be d2-3 ....in 11 days.. lol--true enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 As evidenced by the dearth of comments this morning. 34.5/24 It's really hard to determine what event people are talking about as they spike the football...the one 108 hours away or the one 160 hours away so I suspect many of us just are reading the comments and not posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Regardless, Wednesday/T-Day still looks like a legit chance....the obvious 200 hour caveats applied. Decent mean high position with the wave coming out of the southeast...the question is whether the initial cold airmass next week will still have a good amount of pop left to it to handle some warm air advection out in front of the storm. That's assuming the storm even takes a half decent track...we all know it could end up in Buffalo or Bermuda still at this range. This weekend was never likely, just an interesting possibility. Next week looks like a real possibility, with Arctic air proceeding, and available to feed in. At this point as you and the other mets tell us, all you can look at is the set up. Next week looks like a decent set up. Cool! Its mid November!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Kevin has taken over the QPF mantra. 32.1/19, winds have slackened for the time being. I don't believe anyone can dethrone you from the qpf title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty good secondary fropa going on. Even some flurries here near work. Looks like my 24+hr hiatus of not having the heat on will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 wonder if we'll see a decent ice event(s) across the north country sometime from ~12/1 - 12/10. assuming NE conus troughing relaxes after turkey day, pattern might favor that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't believe anyone can dethrone you from the qpf title You always need to be wary of these up-and-comers..... 32.0/18--temp pretty much stuck so far this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 06z GFS only spits out a 0-.1". And another big precip maker that had ben modeled is now reduced to a few showers turning to snow showers. Concerns mounting The dryness? Yes but it won't last forever. It is the X factor though. I'm confident of a cold winter. I don't want cold and dry. Dry is this year's elephant in the room until the atmosphere proves that it's not. I know "dry begets dry" is just a non-meteorological cliche but it's where we sit right now. I personally would take some soakers in November if it meant a pattern shift that was going to deliver precipitation through the heart of the winter months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well the good news is that the weeklies did an ok job a couple of weeks ago indicating a return to COD and weakly into Nina phases of the MJO. It was probably too aggressive with the Nina stages, but had the right idea. They now try to get it towards P6-7 which is good to have on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I'm still optimistic that we may see more of a frontal passage and wave along it for the weekend. Particularly CNE/NNE, but even down here. 4 days way, plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 The long range guidance looks really similar to what we saw in December 2008...big Aleutian ridge that is poleward for a -EPO...a semi-hostile Atlantic, and +NAO. The only thing that is a bit different is the ridge in the PAC is centered a bit east of guidance so the PNA isn't as negative as Dec 2008. This doesn't mean we are going to get a Dec 2008 month in case some of you were tempted to think you'd get 30-40 inches of snow because of similarities in the pattern, it just means that upcoming in the 7-20 day period, we're seeing a pattern similar to that month. It is characterized by voliatility with some cold air available (perhaps a bit more than 2008), but not sustained. Whether it sticks around beyond early December is anyone's guess, but for the next 1-3 weeks, I think that isn't a bad analog in terms of the longwave pattern. With the ridge shifted east, we might be colder in the mean...a lot of people forget that Dec '08 was above average temps because of all the snow and ice that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Looks like AO bounces back as quickly as it drops on teleconnector guidance . I dont buy into LR that much but i do think we are gonna need pacific to be more favorable than it has in last few years to have a decent winter. In other words i see enough signs of a +AO winter that i think the talk of a late novie -early Dec wintery period may be the most prolong'd wintery period we see for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Looks like AO bounces back as quickly as it drops on teleconnector guidance . I dont buy into LR that much but i do think we are gonna need pacific to be more favorable than it has in last few years to have a decent winter. In other words i see enough signs of a +AO winter that i think the talk of a late novie -early Dec wintery period may be the most prolong'd wintery period we see for a while. We will have a vortex split and part of it will be in Canada near Hudson Bay so that is a good thing in that Canada will be cold and we have money in the bank up there. Now does it dive energy south to enhance a -PNA and a SE ridge? Possibly, but the vortex for now is disturbed which means we will probably have some volatility...esp without a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 We will have a vortex split and part of it will be in Canada near Hudson Bay so that is a good thing in that Canada will be cold and we have money in the bank up there. Now does it dive energy south to enhance a -PNA and a SE ridge? Possibly, but the vortex for now is disturbed which means we will probably have some volatility...esp without a -NAO. If that PV splits really happens all the way into the stratosphere, then we'd have a chance at more sustained blocking probably well into December. Still plenty of caution flags though as to whether that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If that PV splits really happens all the way into the stratosphere, then we'd have a chance at more sustained blocking probably well into December. Still plenty of caution flags though as to whether that happens. does anyone have access to euro ens strat progs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 does anyone have access to euro ens strat progs? you can get them on this site: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ I think Scott has access to them for the ensembles from WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If that PV splits really happens all the way into the stratosphere, then we'd have a chance at more sustained blocking probably well into December. Still plenty of caution flags though as to whether that happens. Yeah definitely...I meant more in the troposphere...but having it that high would certainly help. That's a pretty good signal there in the strat-casts, but my guess is similar yellow flags exist with the strat forecasts like they do with regular surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 you can get them on this site: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ I think Scott has access to them for the ensembles from WSI. thanks - yeah i have that one bookmarked, but that's just the op, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I only have ensemble temp anomalies at 50mb...nothing else, so it doesn't quite have the detail as available there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That was an impressive jet engine sound last night around 3am, had that winter sound. Now without leaves the wind has a different pitch. For Nov 19th sure is a lot of worry about stuff. I thought about what Phil said about us looking too early for winter results, he is right in a way. You would think it was Mid December in here with Scooter getting fired up at Kevin. In all the upcoming pattern is cold, the threat for a winter event is pretty good. Certainly feels like early winter today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That was an impressive jet engine sound last night around 3am, had that winter sound. Now without leaves the wind has a different pitch. For Nov 19th sure is a lot of worry about stuff. I thought about what Phil said about us looking too early for winter results, he is right in a way. You would think it was Mid December in here with Scooter getting fired up at Kevin. In all the upcoming pattern is cold, the threat for a winter event is pretty good. Certainly feels like early winter today. I only got fired up because we always warn people about the traditional caveats when looking ahead this time of year...yet it always happens. It's 11/19, there is a reason why I don't avg much more than an inch of snow in Novie...and much of that is from do or die Novembers where we either get hit, or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Probably a weenie comment, but a slight chance of a little very light mixed precip perhaps Friday morning, esp west. Some decent WAA and ribbon of mid level RH coming in. Could see it as fractured garbage moving through, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I only got fired up because we always warn people about the traditional caveats when looking ahead this time of year...yet it always happens. It's 11/19, there is a reason why I don't avg much more than an inch of snow in Novie...and much of that is from do or die Novembers where we either get hit, or nothing. Well since Oct is now a Winter month, it would seem reasonable that Nov is too. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 gfs doesn't even give Damage in Tolland a snow shower on saturday. and hardly a rain shower either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 The GFS evolution of the front this weekend is definitely a bit different than some other guidance. Its really just carrying that first wave and winding it up to our northwest and then blowing the front through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The GFS evolution of the front this weekend is definitely a bit different than some other guidance. Its really just carrying that first wave and winding it up to our northwest and then blowing the front through. It's got that little appendage pushing across SNE as if it wants to pop a secondary. Not that it will do us any good, but I'm not sold on warm temps for all of us like it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Remember the 850 model outputs for today, -5 or so, current analysis has -10 to NH Mass border with -8 into NE CT. Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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