moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't recall anyone saying that. Honestly. i remeber general excitement and that it was legit. Whatever. It s showers of rain and snow FTL You were all drunk. 32.6/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro will be wrong on tday snow It may never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 You were all drunk. 32.6/22 It was one of those things where we were like.."yeah maybe it could..." but it was far out too. I guess we should be careful of what we say since it gets misinterpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It may never snow again.Why are you acting like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 GOA trough seems a bit more pronounced at end of the euro ens run. Scooter caution flags flying everywhere. Its going to be tough to sustain cold like that with the Atlantic the way it is. It doesn't mean disaster as we don't have a death vortex, but it could be a variable pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 He posted a map of the whole run so the snow on the map further south was out in clown range....it had nothing to do with the weekend event. Oh okay, I was looking at surface maps for the tday threat and it seemed a bit warm down here to support that. My 850's are torching.Either way it's 204 hrs out, just trying the grasp the credibility of the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It may never snow again.Why are you acting like this?. He's just messing with your head,let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Why are you acting like this? It happens every year. We get crap for discussing the pros and cons of a pattern, you guys tell us to only be positive, we then warn you to not complain if a day 8 prog doesn't verify and then those people complain. It's so scripted it's not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It happens every year. We get crap for discussing the pros and cons of a pattern, you guys tell us to only be positive, we then warn you to not complain if a day 8 prog doesn't verify and then those people complain. It's so scripted it's not even funny. Plural? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Why are you acting like this? It happens every year. We get crap for discussing the pros and cons of a pattern, you guys tell us to only be positive, we then warn you to not complain if a day 8 prog doesn't verify and then those people complain. It's so scripted it's not even funny. . I've learned not to get to up or down on things, let's see how things play out, if we are in January and pattern sucks then worry, maybe old age is getting to me . Balmy 40.4 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Scooter caution flags flying everywhere. Its going to be tough to sustain cold like that with the Atlantic the way it is. It doesn't mean disaster as we don't have a death vortex, but it could be a variable pattern.. yeah can't say i was a fan of the evolution of that run. 850s in general still looked cool across the region and northward, so that's a plus. but beyond, it could certainly yield height rises out east and likewise put a dent in the cold. we'll see how today's runs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Plural? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yes. Put away those caution flags and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It happens every year. We get crap for discussing the pros and cons of a pattern, you guys tell us to only be positive, we then warn you to not complain if a day 8 prog doesn't verify and then those people complain. It's so scripted it's not even funny.Again no one was complaining. Not one person. It was expressing concern over the way models continue backing off on storms and Qpf as we are now in very close to winter and in snow threat time of year..the same way mets are worried this morning about the euro ens look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 Again no one was complaining. Not one person. It was expressing concern over the way models continue backing off on storms and Qpf as we are now in very close to winter and in snow threat time of year..the same way mets are worried this morning about the euro ens look Well the only model runs that had big precip this weekend were over 7 days out. Worrying about qpf on models that far out is a fools errand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Again no one was complaining. Not one person. It was expressing concern over the way models continue backing off on storms and Qpf as we are now in very close to winter and in snow threat time of year..the same way mets are worried this morning about the euro ens look Well it's a shame that it sounds like you ignored most of our comments over the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well it's a shame that it sounds like you ignored most of our comments over the last week.It doesn't sound that way at all. The thoughts of many mets was there was a chance of snow Sunday. There were some caution warnings issued as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Again no one was complaining. Not one person. It was expressing concern over the way models continue backing off on storms and Qpf as we are now in very close to winter and in snow threat time of year..the same way mets are worried this morning about the euro ens look Kevin has taken over the QPF mantra. 32.1/19, winds have slackened for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It doesn't sound that way at all. The thoughts of many mets was there was a chance of snow Sunday. There were some caution warnings issued as well. Odds of an event 11/24 anywhere in sne are always low. That's the default going in. So a marginal situation will rarely cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It doesn't sound that way at all. The thoughts of many mets was there was a chance of snow Sunday. There were some caution warnings issued as well. LOL, well there is always a chance. There is a chance I win powerball this week, but will it happen? Probably not. You fell right into the day 7+ model trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 It doesn't sound that way at all. The thoughts of many mets was there was a chance of snow Sunday. There were some caution warnings issued as well. Well then there shouldn't be much angst, surprise, or a big feeling of letdown if we don't get snow this weekend. The caution flags aren't just for fun, they ar ebecause there's legit reasons why it won't happen. The cutter look was a very real possibility. I think even at the GTG, I mentioned this could be a cutter and I know its been talked about in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I do think the psychology comes around every year...heck...I'm part of it. Someone should bump threads of the past 5 years going back to eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well then there shouldn't be much angst, surprise, or a big feeling of letdown if we don't get snow this weekend. The caution flags aren't just for fun, they ar ebecause there's legit reasons why it won't happen. The cutter look was a very real possibility. I think even at the GTG, I mentioned this could be a cutter and I know its been talked about in this thread. Yep, you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well the only model runs that had big precip this weekend were over 7 days out. Worrying about qpf on models that far out is a fools errand. I'm not even sure any model had big precip for this upcoming weekend? The cutoff low is too far SW and the ridge axis is out in BC. Not a good setup at all to get a storm here. Looks like a nice strorm for the Upper Plains and GL region. This thing is playing out like I felt it would. Low occludes so far W that we are left with a frontal passage with some rain showers. As far as next week goes, still a lot can happen as a lot of it hinges on that cutoff in the SW and how it comes back into the mean flow. That's the T-Day system. Could pass S of us or it could hug the coast. I also would not rule out some sort of a weak clipper type system before that on or around tues/wed. Could be a NNE type thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yep, you did. Regardless, Wednesday/T-Day still looks like a legit chance....the obvious 200 hour caveats applied. Decent mean high position with the wave coming out of the southeast...the question is whether the initial cold airmass next week will still have a good amount of pop left to it to handle some warm air advection out in front of the storm. That's assuming the storm even takes a half decent track...we all know it could end up in Buffalo or Bermuda still at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 I'm not even sure any model had big precip for this upcoming weekend? The cutoff low is too far SW and the ridge axis is out in BC. Not a good setup at all to get a storm here. Looks like a nice strorm for the Upper Plains and GL region. This thing is playing out like I felt it would. Low occludes so far W that we are left with a frontal passage with some rain showers. As far as next week goes, still a lot can happen as a lot of it hinges on that cutoff in the SW and how it comes back into the mean flow. That's the T-Day system. Could pass S of us or it could hug the coast. I also would not rule out some sort of a weak clipper type system before that on or around tues/wed. Could be a NNE type thing though. A couple runs on the weekend had around an inch of qpf. It was never a monster event, but pretty decent sized on a few runs...but they were like 180-192 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 A couple runs on the weekend had around an inch of qpf. It was never a monster event, but pretty decent sized on a few runs...but they were like 180-192 hours out. LOL. QPF is stupid to look at until ~2.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Regardless, Wednesday/T-Day still looks like a legit chance....the obvious 200 hour caveats applied. Decent mean high position with the wave coming out of the southeast...the question is whether the initial cold airmass next week will still have a good amount of pop left to it to handle some warm air advection out in front of the storm. That's assuming the storm even takes a half decent track...we all know it could end up in Buffalo or Bermuda still at this range. Pretty strong signal for something at the range. I will say that I think the pattern will become more active as we start to get these cold outbreaks diving south and firing up the baroclinicity over the US. Like you said, I don't know if it will be a Bermuda or Buffalo track..but I think we will see more storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty strong signal for something at the range. I will say that I think the pattern will become more active as we start to get these cold outbreaks diving south and firing up the baroclinicity over the US. Like you said, I don't know if it will be a Bermuda or Buffalo track..but I think we will see more storms. EC ensembles had another pretty decent signal for Dec 2-3. As long as the EPO cooperates, I think we'll have chances going into December...but I don't expect frigid conditions the whole time considering the Atlantic is out of sync and the GOA isn't exactly stamped in ink going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Winds have picked up after an odd 30-minute period of relative calm. 32.0/19--temps struggling so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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