CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah that's what I thought too..hence the north of 40 look..Phew Many energy mets fear an Aleutian ridge for the east, but that doesn't necessarily apply for 40N. Of course that is assuming they are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Many energy mets fear an Aleutian ridge for the east, but that doesn't necessarily apply for 40N. Of course that is assuming they are correct. How did they look week by week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm surprised you guys didn't comment on the definitely going to happen 384 hour 18Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Finally can see my models again. BOY, the long range looks great on the GFS! My Halloween call of pattern change around the 25th is looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Caution, this is an op run and I am not a pro at this lol... We may be seeing the Strat PV trying to split o the euro op out by day 10. This may be due to a wave 2 response as shown here that will try and disrupt the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Caution, this is an op run and I am not a pro at this lol... We may be seeing the Strat PV trying to split o the euro op out by day 10. ecmwf50f240.gif This may be due to a wave 2 response as shown here that will try and disrupt the PV. ecmwfzm_ha2_f216.gif That would be nice if it happened. HM was mentioning this potential. Another factor to consider for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 HM says weeklies look like Dec 1980 with spilt PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That would be nice if it happened. HM was mentioning this potential. Another factor to consider for December. Well the ensembles don't seem as enthusiastic with a PV split. There is a hint at it, but not as clear as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well the ensembles don't seem as enthusiastic with a PV split. There is a hint at it, but not as clear as the op. But isn't something like that smoothed out in an ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 A good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well I think there's reason to be optimistic given everything. Things could fall apart but I like where we sit the night of 11/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well my fault for posting a lot...some of it probably gets missed. I know you are kidding...so was I with the cutter then cold comment. I'm only discussing the possibilities of why we should be more patient. Gun to head....the pattern really is pretty good over the next couple of weeks I think. Maybe it rains on the coast, but I think the interior is looking at a good potential for at least a moderate snowstorm over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Those indices look good. I was thinking (not recommended) Is early season arctic air release into CONUS more dependent on +PNA or -NAO? Or a combination? First you need the bottled up frigidity and climo-wise is gaining strength, so usually that's a given. Secondly a mechanism to release. This time of year I would think a -NAO is more important than a neutral or -/+ PNA. Such a balancing act. Later on as the season progresses a + PNA gains more importance for sustainability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Given the teleconnection progs, the Ens progs, the weeklies look, the analog look, the next 6-14 days should be , much cooler than normal, provide opportunities for wintry events. 20 analog dates for days 6-14 produce this composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Interesting strong push to some pretty cold 850 s, wonder where they bottom out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Interesting strong push to some pretty cold 850 s, wonder where they bottom out Yeah Ginxy, I'm getting a lot more confident on the cold. I know you've been banging the drum for a while, but I'm getting there slowly, lol. Hopefully we can get an active pattern. I could sort of see this going the dry route this winter, but if its cold, that'll give chances when they come. A couple threats though in the next couple weeks isn't too bad. Hopefully we can up the frequency of precip events a little bit, keep it active. That's what makes 07-08 so awesome...there was a storm to track every 3-5 days all winter, lol. And they were mostly gradient mixed events which made forecasting it so difficult, but some great convo during those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The winter of 2010-2011, was fun tracking storms as well, there were a lot of threats to watch unfold, but I spent from Jan 11 2011 on in the military, especially boot camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 GFS is a way westward cutter for the weekend. GGEM has not much of a wave at all...almost something weak along the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 PV sitting over ND at the end of the run. lol -25C at 850 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GFS did bring back the long rate threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty classic inverted trough on the 00z CMC for Sunday. Very different from GFS or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro went much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Euro bonafide fropa as was an option discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Well, the AFD puts a stake in the heart of snow lovers. The smallest glimmers of hope presented at the end, but this one's shaping up to be a rainer. At least we'll have the cold. Gusted to 29mph during the overnight--looks like we'll have a nice breeze continuing. Still a little mild. 35.5/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 06z GFS only spits out a 0-.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This weekend is dead and it never had much of a chance. However, pretty strong signal for something near T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This weekend is dead and it never had much of a chance. However, pretty strong signal for something near T-Day. As evidenced by the dearth of comments this morning. 34.5/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 From the analogs maps I saw, it ould seem euro ens are mild 11-15 and then cooler thereafter? Still overall a decent look at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 As evidenced by the dearth of comments this morning. 34.5/24 Lol......most aren't up yet and Kevin is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 From the analogs maps I saw, it ould seem euro ens are mild 11-15 and then cooler thereafter? Still overall a decent look at H5. There is definitely some variance due to storm track, but yeah an overall decent look. I still argue it's a little early for this pattern so we ride the line so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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