November weather dicsussion

[Ginx snewx]

I know it is Nov 18th and everyone is freaking out it is not snowing or freezing cold. Since when is it in November? lol

Maybe in your world but certainly no one here is freaking out.

[toronto blizzard]

No...they might affect late February or March...but not anything in the near future from a direct ENSO standpoint. There's like a 3 month lag.

What about the warm pool near the dateline? Would that at least cause convection to lead to a -EPO?

[CoastalWx]

Fitting our winter weather workshop is tomorrow.

Bridgton ME deformation zones and ice does not only accrete in the valleys. That should do it.

[weathafella]

I know it is Nov 18th and everyone is freaking out it is not snowing or freezing cold. Since when is it in November? lolMaybe in your world but certainly no one here is freaking out.

Well Kevin reeled himself in from teetering on meltdown lane this morning.

[OceanStWx]

Bridgton ME deformation zones and ice does not only accrete in the valleys. That should do it.

 

Don't forget the always popular no rain in the grids with temps below freezing.

[ORH_wxman]

Bridgton ME deformation zones and ice does not only accrete in the valleys. That should do it.

 

Highs over southern Quebec = "go colder/snowier/icier than guidance"

 

Models generally are terrible with CAD over the interior and erode the cold air way too fast.

[Ginx snewx]

Highs over southern Quebec = "go colder/snowier/icier than guidance"

Models generally are terrible with CAD over the interior and erode the cold air way too fast.

Do You think the models are trying to push through CAD this weekend? Seems like a further south solution will evolve benefitting CNE and up.

[dryslot]

Because it's 10 days out. This weekend doesn't excite me unless I'm in Maine.

 

It has my attention

[weathafella]

Weeklies out yet? Based on the ens analog package d16-30 they're probably cool but not frigid? Also those same analogs are wet I. That period could be fun of that verifies.

[mahk_webstah]

Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy.

 

Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy.

Could you come up with a few more ways this could fail?  Let's get em all out....

I need more material for nightmares.

So far I think we have:

• The Atlantic doesn't cooperate
• The EPO ridge doesn't get poleward enough
• The MJO emerges in phase 4
• Short blasts of cold that aren't sustained and even out
• Cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to spring

[CoastalWx]

<p>

Could you come up with a few more ways this could fail? Let's get em all out....

I need more material for nightmares.

So far I think we have:

• The Atlantic doesn't cooperate
• The EPO ridge doesn't get poleward enough
• The MJO emerges in phase 4
• Short blasts of cold that aren't sustained and even out
• Cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to spring

They are real and they're spectacular.

[weathafella]

Restless weenies...happens every year. I'll be restless if we're warm in a month. Till then we're playing with house money.

[toronto blizzard]

Do the euro ensembles have EPO ridging?

[mahk_webstah]

They are real and they're spectacular.

I know.  This is like therapy.  

Whenever I think we are all set is when the most spectacular of the failures occurs.

93-94 was a spectacular failure in center city philadelphia but a bonanza 20 miles to the north.  Beautiful snows piling up and then sleet....in almost every storm.

 

Of course we have a little more room for error up here in central NH, and average or slightly below with a wet pattern works for me.  The big cold can come later.

[CoastalWx]

I know. This is like therapy.

Whenever I think we are all set is when the most spectacular of the failures occurs.

93-94 was a spectacular failure in center city philadelphia but a bonanza 20 miles to the north. Beautiful snows piling up and then sleet....in almost every storm.

Of course we have a little more room for error up here in central NH, and average or slightly below with a wet pattern works for me. The big cold can come later.

I think every met in some shape or form has stated what I said. I also think you missed the part where I said there are no glaring issues . We go through this every year.

[Ginx snewx]

<p>

Could you come up with a few more ways this could fail? Let's get em all out....

I need more material for nightmares.

So far I think we have:

• The Atlantic doesn't cooperate
• The EPO ridge doesn't get poleward enough
• The MJO emerges in phase 4
• Short blasts of cold that aren't sustained and even out
• Cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to cold to cutter to spring

Lol the caution flags are flying like penalty flags at a Raiders game.

[mahk_webstah]

Lol the caution flags are flying like penalty flags at a Raiders game.

You are old school bro...

 

I hope Scott realizes that I am being tongue in cheek.  He is a most spectacular poster.

[mahk_webstah]

I think every met in some shape or form has stated what I said. I also think you missed the part where I said there are no glaring issues . We go through this every year.

i did miss that.  It's part of the syndrome.  I think you need to bold and triple font those things.

 

Seriously though....this is the best step down I've seen since November 08.  And in the darkest hour I always remember what Dendrite told me in a pm when I moved up here...."it usually finds a way to snow up here."

[weathafella]

Decent look friends...

 

 

[powderfreak]

Actually, if you recall, we had 2-3 cutters followed by strong cold from late November through early December 2010. That's when we started having meltdowns by a few because it didn't look like Yellowknife by 12/15.

Yeah we had a monster upslope event (30"+ totals in some areas, 16" here) on like the 5th-7th in December and then almost completely wiped it out like two days later in a cutter. I was able to hold on to a few inches though and had snowpack from Dec 3 through March that year.

2010-2011 will be remembered for the SNE snowstorms but that's an under-rated winter up here...150.5" here but 220.2" in Underhill on the out her side of the mountains. J.Spin was near 200" too...big totals for populated areas.

[CoastalWx]

i did miss that.  It's part of the syndrome.  I think you need to bold and triple font those things.

 

Seriously though....this is the best step down I've seen since November 08.  And in the darkest hour I always remember what Dendrite told me in a pm when I moved up here...."it usually finds a way to snow up here."

 

Well my fault for posting a lot...some of it probably gets missed.

 

I know you are kidding...so was I with the cutter then cold comment. I'm only discussing the possibilities of why we should be more patient. Gun to head....the pattern really is pretty good over the next couple of weeks I think. Maybe it rains on the coast, but I think the interior is looking at a good potential for at least a moderate snowstorm over the next two weeks. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Decent look friends...

Shooosh yourself. I am expecting to see scenes similar to the day after tomorrow when people are climbing over 30 foot snow banks to get to the malls on Black Friday.

Kidding aside.... I think the chances are better that the system this weekend is wintry up north and I will get my 2nd and 3rd day in on the slopes. Always snows when I go north.

This winter is like a peacock, you gotta let it fly!

[Damage In Tolland]

Wait till Tonto Blizz hear's about the new weeklies. Uh oh

[powderfreak]

Well my fault for posting a lot...some of it probably gets missed.

I know you are kidding...so was I with the cutter then cold comment. I'm only discussing the possibilities of why we should be more patient. Gun to head....the pattern really is pretty good over the next couple of weeks I think. Maybe it rains on the coast, but I think the interior is looking at a good potential for at least a moderate snowstorm over the next two weeks.

Keep up the great posting...most level headed one on here, lol.

Everyone is just antsy for something to happen...anything. It's been a long boring summer, not that the dew point talk in July wasn't riveting, just not quite there on the excitement level. People are just staring at the screen waiting for anything at all to pop up.

It's funny though because 0.2" of QPF as rain is about as boring as it gets. But 0.2" QPF falling as 1-3" of snow would be the most exciting thing to happen since March, lol.

[CoastalWx]

Wait till Tonto Blizz hear's about the new weeklies. Uh oh

 

I saw them, what's the issue?

[Damage In Tolland]

I saw them, what's the issue?

I was sent them and the sender said not good..

 

I looked at them and thought they looked good north of 40

[toronto blizzard]

I saw them, what's the issue?

He's screwing with me.

[CoastalWx]

I was sent them and the sender said not good..

 

I looked at them and thought they looked good north of 40

 

I thought they were fine to be honest. Gradient-like.

[powderfreak]

Well 18z GFS has no frozen precip from the synoptic storm this weekend, even up here. Decent upslope response still progged though, which I'm sure will make many feel better, lol.

Just another in the wide range of possibilities.

[Damage In Tolland]

I thought they were fine to be honest. Gradient-like.

Yeah that's what I thought too..hence the north of 40 look..Phew