ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 :weenie: Weenieing out over a cutting rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 UKMET bombs a low from NJ/Del Marva underneath CC between 120 and 144 hours Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Weenieing out over a cutting rainstorm? Yup, significant QPF events are so hard to come by anymore that anything more than 0.25" is worth a few 's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Essentially correct. -EPO and the AA phase of the N Pac has been allowing for cold transport in the Canadian shield despite the more classic polar influences. The AO is falling. It has ( according to the CPC) fallen 2 SD in just two days. There is a lot of spread as the index approaches 0, but the mean is a neutralized index. It is interesting, because the EPO and NAO look to actually intensify their domains... By the way folks, there's an Archembault signal here ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Yes. If however the AO does go negative as some models pertain, it wont be long-lasting or neither will it go below -1SD in my opinion, as the pattern doesnt support it. NATL's argue for a long-lasting -NAO as well but Its quite possible we may develop a East based -NAO near the end of November as we see ridging developing on the Eastern flank of Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html The MJO may influence the STJ at times and if lets say we saw something devloping similar to the storm back in February, the warm atlantic temps may help fuel the storms. Its an interesting pattern and alot at stake but if we can keep the Pacific in a good pattern the SE ridge should be subjected further south similar to 07-08. In December 07/08 we had an active storm track with a strong gradient anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Weenieing out over a cutting rainstorm? Yup, significant QPF events are so hard to come by anymore that anything more than 0.25" is worth a few 's Nice recovery. I'm thinking the step down continues till we fall in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yes. If however the AO does go negative as some models pertain, it wont be long-lasting or neither will it go below -1SD in my opinion, as the pattern doesnt support it. NATL's argue for a long-lasting -NAO as well but Its quite possible we may develop a East based -NAO near the end of November as we see ridging developing on the Eastern flank of Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html The MJO may influence the STJ at times and if lets say we saw something devloping similar to the storm back in February, the warm atlantic temps may help fuel the storms. Its an interesting pattern and alot at stake but if we can keep the Pacific in a good pattern the SE ridge should be subjected further south similar to 07-08. In December 07/08 we had an active storm track with a strong gradient anomaly. Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's quite bitter on the Euro ensembles for next Monday......very cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 All I know is that this has been a medium range nightmare to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The analogs today have quite a few ice events for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 MJO and tropical forcing are overplayed unless it's high amplitude IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy. Lol - you're mean .... Check this out, you really get the sense that the Canadian shield has locked into winter in the last few frames of this loop. Notice the interior smaller lakes in the continent flashing over. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/ak-1mo-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy. January 1999. Actually, if you recall, we had 2-3 cutters followed by strong cold from late November through early December 2010. That's when we started having meltdowns by a few because it didn't look like Yellowknife by 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 MJO and tropical forcing are overplayed unless it's high amplitude IMHO Yeah snowstorms us bullseying his by by design or subconsciously. Who would do that?....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 MJO and tropical forcing are overplayed unless it's high amplitude IMHO Disagree, not when it is ENSO neutral. It's not everything, but something needs to help drive the pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looked like some sort of snow or frozen to rain this weekend...might have a better shot there as the cold comes in a bit deeper there. Beyond that is tricky. The 27-28 threat is real on the ensembles, but that's all you can call it...a threat. The PAC has certainly helped out, but will it last? That's the question a lot of us have. I know about 2007-2008 etc...I know weenies love to throw that at us to show how it can go right..but you also play with fire. You have to have a perfect setup to cash in and that's more likely the further north you are. I feel like this pattern is being driven by tropical forces in the WPAC with all signs pointing to a pattern that could and very well may bring the first siggy snows to a good portion of the northeast over the next 15 days. AAM is rising which is another good sign. It's beyond that where I really don't know. It's a very changeable pattern and I'm not completely sold on the dogs of winter coming in quite yet. Part of this is due to how early it is...I honestly believe it's a different story a month from now. However, we are very premature in the game and the tendency may be for troughs to amplify a bit further west than our liking here in SNE. Seems like Plains and GL troughing want to develop on the EC..GEFS a bit further east. A compromise would work here. So we'll see how the tropics behave over the next few weeks. We have some warmer waters in the WPAC that will try and facilitate the eastward propagation of any MJO wave. Bottom line is I don't want to hear people complaining if they don't have snow on the ground 2 weeks from now. Yes and I believe a +AAM correlates better with the subtropical jetstream than a -AAM. Winters that have started early usually ended early and that leaves a dent in the winter leaving many disappointed. One such example is 05-06 or 06-07 which started late in the season. Neutral winters are always risky and alot can be at stake. If the pacific patten broke up in the midst of a +AO many would be frustrated as it would furnace the nation similar to 99-00. And thanks. It seens November is going to end on a interesting note. We've seen an active storm track this fall thus far, could this be a sign of winter? Keeping canada cold is one good asset so let's hope that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Maybe we'll get into a pattern of cutters followed by bitter cold. That would make the board happy.Why aren't you getting excited for some snow over the next week or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 January 1999. Actually, if you recall, we had 2-3 cutters followed by strong cold from late November through early December 2010. That's when we started having meltdowns by a few because it didn't look like Yellowknife by 12/15. Oh I remember, we had quite the cutter near the 9th or 10th I think it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Why aren't you getting excited for some snow over the next week or so? Because it's 10 days out. This weekend doesn't excite me unless I'm in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yes and I believe a +AAM correlates better with the subtropical jetstream than a -AAM. Winters that have started early usually ended early and that leaves a dent in the winter leaving many many disappointed. One such example is 05-06 or 06-07 which started late in the season. Neutral winters are always risky and alot can be at stake. If the pacific patten broke up in the midst of a +AO many would be frustrated as it would furnace the nation similar to 99-00. And thanks. It seens November is going to end on a interesting note. We've seen an active storm track this fall thus far, could this be a sign of wunter On the flip side, I don't see any glaring issues either. It's basically, how will the pattern manifest itself during December? I wouldn't be shocked if the second half warmed a tad. But that's a combo of rumors I saw and WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Because it's 10 days out. This weekend doesn't excite me unless I'm in Maine.Well it certainly has many of us interior intrigued esp with some decent ensemble support. Even if it's rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 MJO and tropical forcing are overplayed unless it's high amplitude IMHO I agree to an extent. I have always thought of the MJO as needing the surrounding medium to be in phase(s) that allow its influence to emerge as more noticeable. If the WPO, NP and the general circulation suppresses the MJO (SSTs even play a role) than the MJO is less likely to usurp the pattern. It's just that when these other teleconnector constructively super-impose the MJO wave, it makes the MJO look like the cat's meow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Why aren't you getting excited for some snow over the next week or so? Probably because it leads to disappointment when you raise expectations beyond reasonable levels. I think saying an outside shot at some accumulating snow (maybe a bit better shot in the interior) is the way to play it right now. If this thing trends colder in the next 48 hours, then it will be time to get more excited since we'd be getting into that 3 day range. Right now we're still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 January 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 People need to look at the calendar as well... No need to rush into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Wouldn't the developing warm anomalies in the NINO 3.4&4 regions cause a colder and stormier winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 There are a lot of moving parts to December. Cold strat, but dropping QBO. MJO? West PAC warm pool.Solar spurt over the last few weeks...what does that mean for us? AO dropping for now...put them all together and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Because it's 10 days out. This weekend doesn't excite me unless I'm in Maine. Fitting our winter weather workshop is tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 People need to look at the calendar as well... No need to rush into winter. I know it is Nov 18th and everyone is freaking out it is not snowing or freezing cold. Since when is it in November? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Wouldn't the developing warm anomalies in the NINO 3.4&4 regions cause a colder and stormier winter? No...they might affect late February or March...but not anything in the near future from a direct ENSO standpoint. There's like a 3 month lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.