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November weather dicsussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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euro is borderline frigid sunday night. 

 

 

It gets 2m temps around 10F for ORH (maybe even colder)...record low is 9F...so we're talking about pushing the envelope for the type of cold you can get this time of the year. Pretty remarkable stuff if it happened.

 

Not convinced yet obviously, lol.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

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It gets 2m temps around 10F for ORH (maybe even colder)...record low is 9F...so we're talking about pushing the envelope for the type of cold you can get this time of the year. Pretty remarkable stuff if it happened.

 

Not convinced yet obviously, lol.

 

Will/others, this would be the second cold shot that has pushed the envelope for type of cold you can get for that period, do you see this lasting into deep winter? is there something in the upper air pattern that is causing this cold shots?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Euro ensembles definitely still hint at the Wednesday/Thanksgiving threat...but reminders that it is still 9-10 days out. But as far as ensemble signals for that time period, its pretty good.

 

 

They are quite bullish on the cold early next week too. About -14C to the pike...not bad for an ensemble mean a week out. The SWFE preceding that is there on the ensembles as well, but its a pretty decent spread...anything from a St. Lawrence valley cutter to stay to our south.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I wonder how cold the next 14 days will actually be. Take last week for example..it looked like this week was in the freezer. Now, it's a mundane cool down for all intents and purposes. The pattern is so progressive...it just seems like everything evens out  in the end. I'm not saying it's not below avg..but I don't see signs of a pronounced deep cold spell. At least for now. December is very much up in the air. The base state wants to revert to a +AO with a not so poleward ridge in the Pacific. I think the MJO is helping, but if we lose that...I would be concerned. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Today would be epic in mid April.

Out raking today thinking of the analogy to our push to summer, cold days similar to May 85-90 degree days, gradually the warmer days become consistent. Today was a May 50 degree reminder that mid spring has some influence it was 62 degree reminder that mid Fall has that same influence. As we head into Dec the cold deepens and the memories of fall weather are fewer.
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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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I wonder how cold the next 14 days will actually be. Take last week for example..it looked like this week was in the freezer. Now, it's a mundane cool down for all intents and purposes. The pattern is so progressive...it just seems like everything evens out in the end. I'm not saying it's not below avg..but I don't see signs of a pronounced deep cold spell. At least for now. December is very much up in the air. The base state wants to revert to a +AO with a not so poleward ridge in the Pacific. I think the MJO is helping, but if we lose that...I would be concerned.

Its a hostile pattern. The pacific is keeping us from torching from the anomalous +AO/NAO across the polar region. Overall indices and current patterns dont support a long lasting -AO through the next few weeks atleast. The MJO and EPO are the wild cards. They have been influencing our pattern greatly, from what looked like a torchy November, thus far, has turned out to be a tranquil-coolish November thanks to the pacific blocking.

It seems similar to 2007. I could see a decent gradient pattern setting up. We've seen an active storm pattern of late, in correlation to the Rossby wave train and the STJ, so could it continue through December? The cooler arctic this year amongst others may have allowed cold shots when present, to be brutal.

What did the ensembles show my way? Thanks! And whats your preliminary thoughts atm?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Its a hostile pattern. The pacific is keeping us from torching from the anomalous +AO/NAO across the polar region. Overall indices and current patterns dont support a long lasting -AO through the next few weeks atleast. The MJO and EPO are the wild cards. They have been influencing our pattern greatly, from what looked like a torchy November, thus far, has turned out to be a tranquil-coolish November thanks to the pacific blocking.

It seems similar to 2007. I could see a decent gradient pattern setting up. We've seen an active storm pattern of late, in correlation to the Rossby wave train and the STJ, so could it continue through December? The cooler arctic this year amongst others may have allowed cold shots when present, to be brutal.

What did the ensembles show my way? Thanks! And whats your preliminary thoughts atm?

 

 

Essentially correct.  -EPO and the AA phase of the N Pac has been allowing for cold transport in the Canadian shield despite the more classic polar influences.   The AO is falling.  It has ( according to the CPC) fallen 2 SD in just two days.   There is a lot of spread as the index approaches 0, but the mean is a neutralized index.   It is interesting, because the EPO and NAO look to actually intensify their domains... 

 

By the way folks, there's an Archembault signal here

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Its a hostile pattern. The pacific is keeping us from torching from the anomalous +AO/NAO across the polar region. Overall indices and current patterns dont support a long lasting -AO through the next few weeks atleast. The MJO and EPO are the wild cards. They have been influencing our pattern greatly, from what looked like a torchy November, thus far, has turned out to be a tranquil-coolish November thanks to the pacific blocking.

It seems similar to 2007. I could see a decent gradient pattern setting up. We've seen an active storm pattern of late, in correlation to the Rossby wave train and the STJ, so could it continue through December? The cooler arctic this year amongst others may have allowed cold shots when present, to be brutal.

What did the ensembles show my way? Thanks! And whats your preliminary thoughts atm?

 

Looked like some sort of snow or frozen to rain this weekend...might have a better shot there as the cold comes in a bit deeper there. 

 

Beyond that is tricky. The 27-28 threat is real on the ensembles, but that's all you can call it...a threat. 

 

The PAC has certainly helped out, but will it last? That's the question a lot of us have. I know about 2007-2008 etc...I know weenies love to throw that at us to show how it can go right..but you also play with fire. You have to have a perfect setup to cash in and that's more likely the further north you are. I feel like this pattern is being driven by tropical forces in the WPAC with all signs pointing to a pattern that could and very well may bring the first siggy snows to a good portion of the northeast over the next 15 days. AAM is rising which is another good sign.  It's beyond that where I really don't know. It's a very changeable pattern and I'm not completely sold on the dogs of winter coming in quite yet. Part of this is due to how early it is...I honestly believe it's a different story a month from now. However, we are very premature in the game and the tendency may be for troughs to amplify a bit further west than our liking here in SNE. Seems like Plains and GL troughing want to develop on the EC..GEFS a bit further east. A compromise would work here. So we'll see how the tropics behave over the next few weeks. We have some warmer waters in the WPAC that will try and facilitate the eastward propagation of any MJO wave.   Bottom line is I don't want to hear people complaining if they don't have snow on the ground 2 weeks from now. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I wonder how cold the next 14 days will actually be. Take last week for example..it looked like this week was in the freezer. Now, it's a mundane cool down for all intents and purposes. The pattern is so progressive...it just seems like everything evens out  in the end. I'm not saying it's not below avg..but I don't see signs of a pronounced deep cold spell. At least for now. December is very much up in the air. The base state wants to revert to a +AO with a not so poleward ridge in the Pacific. I think the MJO is helping, but if we lose that...I would be concerned. 

Just cold enough to snow is fine..That seems plausible

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

VALID 12Z THU NOV 21 2013 - 12Z MON NOV 25 2013


THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE IS "WINTER-LIKE"
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER 48. A BROAD NEGATIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CANADA ALLOWS FOR ARCTIC AIR TO
POOL OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND PERIODICALLY SEEP INTO THE
LOWER 48. A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING PACIFIC MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN
ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
OVERRUN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND GRADUALLY CARVE A VERY BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION BY
FORECAST PERIOD`S END.

THE 18/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE WAS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN SETUP THROUGH DAY 6...WITH THE 18/06Z GFS AND 18/00Z
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IN DECENT LOCKSTEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAYS 2-3. THIS AIRMASS
SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAY 4...THEN MODERATES ALONG THE WEST
COAST BUT PLUNGES DEEPER INTO THE MIDWEST...PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
EAST AROUND DAY 5.

ATOP THE NEWLY-ARRIVED AIRMASS...A SERIES OF WEAK...OVER-RUNNING
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEMS MIGRATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
PERIODS OF UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES DAY
3...WITH ARCTIC CANADIAN AIR SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY DAY 4-5. COLDEST AIRMASS
OF MID-AUTUMN APPEARS TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT
LAKES...NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR NEW ENGLAND...THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM INVOF BAJA WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...STARTING AROUND DAY 4 (FRIDAY) AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

VOJTESAK

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