Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. St Lawrence valley runner...not at all atypical this time of the year. I'd probably favor that over a snowy solution for us, but so much will depend on how far south the polar boundary settles ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. That sunds hideous.. Hopefully Canadian and Euro hold the course with the farther south track. GFS has been all over the place and way too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. first time this year watching the models and the 12Z GFS looks like a soaker for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That track is a messy one up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That is some ugly news. Interesting though. How much rain did you have overnight/early AM? 0.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 0.58" plus here 0.29" two day total here. I did record a 32.6 mph wind gust at 8:35 AM when that narrow line went through. Bright sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What are the records for driest Nov? Are we close? Farther north, last Nov was Farmington's driest since records began in 1893, with 0.64" - previous was 0.75" in 1939. I had 0.84" at my place, 6 miles east of there. Today's event will push this month's total to between 1.5" and 2", as we had 1.00" on 11/1 (and almost nothing between then and now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Day 11 system on the GFS preceded by a week wave on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Awesome pics from mainejayhawk of the whites in deep deep winter mode in nne thread We just gotta let the models shake out next few days wrt weekend thing. Gfs ens i hope are south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GFS out in weenie range I think would qualify as a "disturbed polar vortex". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 .28 here Same here. Did little for water deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GFS out in weenie range I think would qualify as a "disturbed polar vortex". Certainly has a very cold look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 end of the gfs run is cold to say the least wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GFS out in weenie range I think would qualify as a "disturbed polar vortex". looks like after the cold shot sun-tue we'd be close to average through 12/1 then await the arctic hounds after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 looks like after the cold shot sun-tue we'd be close to average through 12/1 then await the arctic hounds after that. Euro ensembles have been hinting at that...more avg temps from T-day through that weekend after the initial cold shot next weekend and early next week. A lot might depend on if there is a storm system around T-day and if it tracks south of us or not...then we could end up colder despite 850 temps not being overly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That track is a messy one up here Yeah, that would be snow to mix to rain...though its really close up here. The 2-m temps (which are taken with a grain of salt) do hang around 32F from this area eastward into Maine but it looks more like a Rangley/Jackman type deal. I think I could get out of that with a net gain though, not including the NW flow on the backside. Anyway, that low could still end up over Detroit or the Benchmark at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah, that would be snow to mix to rain...though its really close up here. The 2-m temps (which are taken with a grain of salt) do hang around 32F from this area eastward into Maine but it looks more like a Rangley/Jackman type deal. I think I could get out of that with a net gain though, not including the NW flow on the backside. Anyway, that low could still end up over Detroit or the Benchmark at this time frame. Just having it modeled consistently is all i want to see this far out anyways, Euro was further south with this system as well as the ensembles, It would be mainly frozen here verbatim with the Euro, And the area i am hunting in is NW of here so that's really where i want to see snow right now anyways........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I kind of agree with Kevin re analog dates. But when a slew of good years is on there vs bad it may be worth taking note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Better enjoy this balmy, blue-bird weather today while it lasts -- wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Today's gonna put big positives in the climo book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Just having it modeled consistently is all i want to see this far out anyways, Euro was further south with this system as well as the ensembles, It would be mainly frozen here verbatim with the Euro, And the area i am hunting in is NW of here so that's really where i want to see snow right now anyways........... Pure weenie fodder, but hopefully the ECM can remain consistent for the Saturday system. It had a stripe of 12"+ in central Maine, and a pretty widespread 6"+. We'll know in another hour or two if it heads more north like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean looks more favorable for next weekend (snow wise) than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean looks more favorable for next weekend (snow wise) than the op. nah. it looks pretty much like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well as you know..I'm not big on analog's. I don't give that very much merit.. Think it's used waaayy too muchYou insisted in Jan last year the same. Analogs for 8-15 day periods are very useful info. Season long I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GGEM is a mixed bag for southern areas this weekend. Looks like a snow to rain deal with all snow N. Follow-up potential is there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I think a lot of people would just save themselves grief and understand this will not be a quick process. It NEVER is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 gfs ens look a little more promising for the turkey day "threat" as the mean has HP just N of new england and some semblance of wave activity heading offshore to the SE of NE. at this time frame, about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Definitely something "in the cards" for 27-28 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Combining all 20 dates on the analog lists produces a -EPO,positive weak PNA, eastern trough, Neg NAO, and very low heights in Our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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