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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. 

 

 

St Lawrence valley runner...not at all atypical this time of the year. I'd probably favor that over a snowy solution for us, but so much will depend on how far south the polar boundary settles ahead of it.

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GFS brings the friday / saturday low through the OV into western NYS...with an attempt at some redevelopment NE of BOS...overall a rather mild / ugly solution. similar the GGEM of yesterday really. 

That sunds hideous.. Hopefully Canadian and Euro hold the course with the farther south track. GFS has been all over the place and way too fast

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What are the records for driest Nov? Are we close?

 

Farther north, last Nov was Farmington's driest since records began in 1893, with 0.64" - previous was 0.75" in 1939.  I had 0.84" at my place, 6 miles east of there.  Today's event will push this month's total to between 1.5" and 2", as we had 1.00" on 11/1 (and almost nothing between then and now.)

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looks like after the cold shot sun-tue we'd be close to average through 12/1 then await the arctic hounds after that. 

 

 

Euro ensembles have been hinting at that...more avg temps from T-day through that weekend after the initial cold shot next weekend and early next week.

 

A lot might depend on if there is a storm system around T-day and if it tracks south of us or not...then we could end up colder despite 850 temps not being overly cold.

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That track is a messy one up here

 

Yeah, that would be snow to mix to rain...though its really close up here.  The 2-m temps (which are taken with a grain of salt) do hang around 32F from this area eastward into Maine but it looks more like a Rangley/Jackman type deal.  I think I could get out of that with a net gain though, not including the NW flow on the backside.  Anyway, that low could still end up over Detroit or the Benchmark at this time frame.

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Yeah, that would be snow to mix to rain...though its really close up here.  The 2-m temps (which are taken with a grain of salt) do hang around 32F from this area eastward into Maine but it looks more like a Rangley/Jackman type deal.  I think I could get out of that with a net gain though, not including the NW flow on the backside.  Anyway, that low could still end up over Detroit or the Benchmark at this time frame.

 

Just having it modeled consistently is all i want to see this far out anyways, Euro was further south with this system as well as the ensembles, It would be mainly frozen here verbatim with the Euro, And the area i am hunting in is NW of here so that's really where i want to see snow right now anyways........... ;)

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Just having it modeled consistently is all i want to see this far out anyways, Euro was further south with this system as well as the ensembles, It would be mainly frozen here verbatim with the Euro, And the area i am hunting in is NW of here so that's really where i want to see snow right now anyways........... ;)

 

Pure weenie fodder, but hopefully the ECM can remain consistent for the Saturday system.  It had a stripe of 12"+ in central Maine, and a pretty widespread 6"+.

 

We'll know in another hour or two if it heads more north like the GFS.

 

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