Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 the timing on this fropa today shows how progressive the pattern is right now....iirc, a week ago this was a tue PM deal...then it became a monday washout...now - sun's already out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 8-14 day period is looking pretty solid for a storm threat. Of course we have seen this before but that Turkey day threat is particularly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 One ensemble run and you turn tail and run. Where's your confidence reverend? 2002,2004 dominate the analog lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 the timing on this fropa today shows how progressive the pattern is right now....iirc, a week ago this was a tue PM deal...then it became a monday washout...now - sun's already out here. not to mention a much rainier solution-models had 1 inch plus only to trim it as it got closer....seasonal trend of things coming in much drier than progged in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 not to mention a much rainier solution-models had 1 inch plus only to trim it as it got closer....seasonal trend of things coming in much drier than progged in the medium range. That had the look of something drier than an inch though, I even mentioned that a few days ago. GFS wasn't nearly as wet. I think this went as planned. Models blossomed precip over SE areas and that's what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 the timing on this fropa today shows how progressive the pattern is right now....iirc, a week ago this was a tue PM deal...then it became a monday washout...now - sun's already out here.That seems to happen a lot as of late. Things get here faster and last a shorter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That had the look of something drier than an inch though, I even mentioned that a few days ago. GFS wasn't nearly as wet. I think this went as planned. Models blossomed precip over SE areas and that's what happened. thankfully was pretty healthy out here...when i left my house i was at .77" and counting. euro actually bumped qpf here on the 12z yesterday to an inch...and i think that's actually going to end up pretty close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That seems to happen a lot as of late. Things get here faster and last a shorter time. It's a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 thankfully was pretty healthy out here...when i left my house i was at .77" and counting. euro actually bumped qpf here on the 12z yesterday to an inch...and i think that's actually going to end up pretty close to correct. The mesos hit that hard for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The mesos hit that hard for SE areas. yeah the stuff that developed along the pseudo-warm front yesterday even managed to drop about .1" which was more than i though it could. it was that heavy drizzle that pretty much equates to moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 yeah the stuff that developed along the pseudo-warm front yesterday even managed to drop about .1" which was more than i though it could. it was that heavy drizzle that pretty much equates to moderate rain. Looked like maybe 0.5" or so at home. Much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Looked like maybe 0.5" or so at home. Much needed. .63 at mia casa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 58f Mid Autumn torch in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What are the records for driest Nov? Are we close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 0.58" plus here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 2002,2004 dominate the analog lists. Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps. But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps. But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average. The PAC looks undecided a bit in the 11-15 day per guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps. But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average. gimme dec 08 thank you. historic ice storm and about 3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I would not mind seeing 07-08 walk back in the door this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The PAC looks undecided a bit in the 11-15 day per guidance. 06z GEFS looked very good in the 11-15 but the EC ensembles were definitely warmer..more like closer to average temps, though they "tried" to pump the EPO ridge in the final day or two of the run. You can see why the EC ensembles tried to warm it a bit...they bring the MJO around almost out of the circle of death near phase 4 which is a warm phase...but then it tacks back toward the center at the end which is probably why the last day or two cool back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 I would not mind seeing 07-08 walk back in the door this winter I'd be surprised if we got a pattern like that...that was a -QBO, strong La Nina classic gradient winter. We might get some sort of a gradient again this winter, but getting it as utterly active as that year would be difficult. Particularly with a pumped up western ridge...we almost had a permanent -PNA that year. This year is not looking like that at least to start. Though I'd take that pattern again too if offered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 06z GEFS looked very good in the 11-15 but the EC ensembles were definitely warmer..more like closer to average temps, though they "tried" to pump the EPO ridge in the final day or two of the run. You can see why the EC ensembles tried to warm it a bit...they bring the MJO around almost out of the circle of death near phase 4 which is a warm phase...but then it tacks back toward the center at the end which is probably why the last day or two cool back. Yep, and it's no surprise that as the forecasts changed, so has the EC. I looked at that earlier today..hopefully it goes into the COD and circles left again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Here's hoping for a decent snow my week in Bretton Woods next week - last year was rough with only a dusting falling in the valleys all week. Hiked up MTW the day before I had to leave and encountered several inches of snow with brutal winds above timberline. Ski area opened last Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yep, and it's no surprise that as the forecasts changed, so has the EC. I looked at that earlier today..hopefully it goes into the COD and circles left again. Yeah or even if it goes up to phase 6, that is not bad. That supports a fairly cold northeast/lakes. The GEFS bring it back around to phase 1/2 which is helping cause the much colder pattern in the 11-15 day. Hopefully its closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Fwiw and I'm not sure how much... Ensemble analog product on sv cool it beyond d15 using euro ens. Nice analog dates too. I can see some mild December days but a long torch doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 .63 at mia casa .28 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 2002,2004 dominate the analog lists. Well as you know..I'm not big on analog's. I don't give that very much merit.. Think it's used waaayy too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We now have tropical storm Melissa out in the middle of the Atlantic. The final storm to a meh tropical storm season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What are the records for driest Nov? Are we close? FWIW in our neck of the woods (and in the past 29 years), so far this November is ranking #2 behind November 1985 when we only had 0.75" (I've had 0.88" so far this month). That being said, we are currently in the driest fall with 1.94" having fallen so far. Unless we get a deluge, I think we will stay #1. In 2001 (currently #2) we had 5.16" for the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 FWIW in our neck of the woods (and in the past 29 years), so far this November is ranking #2 behind November 1985 when we only had 0.75" (I've had 0.88" so far this month). That being said, we are currently in the driest fall with 1.94" having fallen so far. Unless we get a deluge, I think we will stay #1. In 2001 (currently #2) we had 5.16" for the fall. That is some ugly news. Interesting though. How much rain did you have overnight/early AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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