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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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the timing on this fropa today shows how progressive the pattern is right now....iirc, a week ago this was a tue PM deal...then it became a monday washout...now - sun's already out here.

not to mention a much rainier solution-models had 1 inch plus only to trim it as it got closer....seasonal trend of things coming in much drier than progged in the medium range.

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not to mention a much rainier solution-models had 1 inch plus only to trim it as it got closer....seasonal trend of things coming in much drier than progged in the medium range.

 

That had the look of something drier than an inch though, I even mentioned that a few days ago. GFS wasn't nearly as wet. I think this went as planned. Models blossomed precip over SE areas and that's what happened.

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That had the look of something drier than an inch though, I even mentioned that a few days ago. GFS wasn't nearly as wet. I think this went as planned. Models blossomed precip over SE areas and that's what happened.

thankfully was pretty healthy out here...when i left my house i was at .77" and counting. euro actually bumped qpf here on the 12z yesterday to an inch...and i think that's actually going to end up pretty close to correct.

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2002,2004 dominate the analog lists.

 

 

Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps.

 

But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average.

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Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps.

 

But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average.

 

The PAC looks undecided a bit in the 11-15 day per guidance.

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Lots of 1956 and 2008 now...which were above average Decembers for temps...though they both had plenty of snow events despite the milder temps.

 

But the different analog patterns show the uncertainty...some were quite cold and others were above average.

gimme dec 08

thank you.  historic ice storm and about 3 feet of snow.

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The PAC looks undecided a bit in the 11-15 day per guidance.

 

 

06z GEFS looked very good in the 11-15 but the EC ensembles were definitely warmer..more like closer to average temps, though they "tried" to pump the EPO ridge in the final day or two of the run.

 

You can see why the EC ensembles tried to warm it a bit...they bring the MJO around almost out of the circle of death near phase 4 which is a warm phase...but then it tacks back toward the center at the end which is probably why the last day or two cool back.

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I would not mind seeing 07-08 walk back in the door this winter

 

 

I'd be surprised if we got a pattern like that...that was a -QBO, strong La Nina classic gradient winter. We might get some sort of a gradient again this winter, but getting it as utterly active as that year would be difficult. Particularly with a pumped up western ridge...we almost had a permanent -PNA that year. This year is not looking like that at least to start.

 

Though I'd take that pattern again too if offered.

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06z GEFS looked very good in the 11-15 but the EC ensembles were definitely warmer..more like closer to average temps, though they "tried" to pump the EPO ridge in the final day or two of the run.

 

You can see why the EC ensembles tried to warm it a bit...they bring the MJO around almost out of the circle of death near phase 4 which is a warm phase...but then it tacks back toward the center at the end which is probably why the last day or two cool back.

 

Yep, and it's no surprise that as the forecasts changed, so has the EC. I looked at that earlier today..hopefully it goes into the COD and circles left again.

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Here's hoping for a decent snow my week in Bretton Woods next week - last year was rough with only a dusting falling in the valleys all week.    Hiked up MTW the day before I had to leave and encountered several inches of snow with brutal winds above timberline.

Ski area opened last Thursday.

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Yep, and it's no surprise that as the forecasts changed, so has the EC. I looked at that earlier today..hopefully it goes into the COD and circles left again.

 

 

Yeah or even if it goes up to phase 6, that is not bad. That supports a fairly cold northeast/lakes.

 

The GEFS bring it back around to phase 1/2 which is helping cause the much colder pattern in the 11-15 day. Hopefully its closer to correct.  

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What are the records for driest Nov? Are we close?

 

FWIW in our neck of the woods (and in the past 29 years), so far this November is ranking #2 behind November 1985 when we only had 0.75" (I've had 0.88" so far this month).  That being said, we are currently in the driest fall with 1.94" having fallen so far.  Unless we get a deluge, I think we will stay #1.  In 2001 (currently #2) we had 5.16" for the fall.

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FWIW in our neck of the woods (and in the past 29 years), so far this November is ranking #2 behind November 1985 when we only had 0.75" (I've had 0.88" so far this month).  That being said, we are currently in the driest fall with 1.94" having fallen so far.  Unless we get a deluge, I think we will stay #1.  In 2001 (currently #2) we had 5.16" for the fall.

That is some ugly news. Interesting though.

 

How much rain did you have overnight/early AM?

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