toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Definitely a waxing and waning with the EPO with every run.Was it stronger this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Was it stronger this run? No. There was a bit more PNA ridging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 No. There was a bit more PNA ridging though. He's still waking up in the middle of the night screaming with images of the big black hole of 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Man though, looks like PF may clean up on upslope..It's been there for several runs in some form. Honestly don't care where the thing tracks, as long as it ends up as a stacked closed system vicinity of FVE or north of there.I mean this mornings run would be huge. Closed lows wrapping around plenty of cyclonic flow moisture off the Atlantic, and the wringing it out over the mountains on a beautiful WNW flow. The large hill in the backyard would know what to do with this set-up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 He's still waking up in the middle of the night screaming with images of the big black hole of 2 years ago. LOL. I'm tempted to mess around with him, but then you guys won't know if I'm kidding around or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It's all in good fun.Yep haha. I think most realize the ground rules this time of year. No one ever hopes someone gets out-right screwed, but likewise no one is going to cheer for someone else to get snow at their expense. It's fun to joke around about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It's been there for several runs in some form. Honestly don't care where the thing tracks, as long as it ends up as a stacked closed system vicinity of FVE or north of there. I mean this mornings run would be huge. Closed lows wrapping around plenty of cyclonic flow moisture off the Atlantic, and the wringing it out over the mountains on a beautiful WNW flow. The large hill in the backyard would know what to do with this set-up: image.jpg All that upslope and yet little old WaWa beat you guys to opening. Some house rattling gusts this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's a perfect SWFE redevelopment for here...occurring on the weekend would be a bonus. It's inside of week 2 now so lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 As long as it snows up here who cares what else happens............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's a perfect SWFE redevelopment for here...occurring on the weekend would be a bonus. It's inside of week 2 now so lock it in? 07-08 ish? 0z Euro was almost as good as it gets this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That's a perfect SWFE redevelopment for here...occurring on the weekend would be a bonus. It's inside of week 2 now so lock it in? White Thanksgiving at Winnie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The ensembles also have a threat on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The ensembles also have a threat on the 27th. They are also noticeably warmer for the weekend after T-day. Shows the volatility in the pattern. The risk for prematurely spiking footballs is massive in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Hopefully 2 snow shots by the time we cut birds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 They are also noticeably warmer for the weekend after T-day. Shows the volatility in the pattern. The risk for prematurely spiking footballs is massive in this pattern. Yep, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 They are also noticeably warmer for the weekend after T-day. Shows the volatility in the pattern. The risk for prematurely spiking footballs is massive in this pattern.Maybe a storm threat aroun that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland If someone offered you the look right now 3 weeks ago, you would have been a fool not to take it. We aren't going to get December 1983 or 1989 by T-day...or even 2002...its just not very relaistic to expect that. We're already going to be pretty cold T-day week and there's an outside chance at a snow event too...but as we've been discussing for days in this thread, there's a ton of uncertainty beyond T-day. Its not straight into the freezer that some may want to try and take this. It could be, but there's also a very realistic chance we go mild too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 If someone offered you the look right now 3 weeks ago, you would have been a fool not to take it. We aren't going to get December 1983 or 1989 by T-day...or even 2002...its just not very relaistic to expect that. We're already going to be pretty cold T-day week and there's an outside chance at a snow event too...but as we've been discussing for days in this thread, there's a ton of uncertainty beyond T-day. Its not straight into the freezer that some may want to try and take this. It could be, but there's also a very realistic chance we go mild too. How mild and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland Patience. This is why we discuss objectively, the good and bad. Nice cold shot coming this week folled by a moderating trend into the weekend. The weekend system is interesting. Will have to see how the models handle the cutoff low out W. If that digs far enough S and W it may allow for the weekend system to come far enough S to give us something worthwhile. After that we'll need to watch how that cutoff ejects E into the flow. Could provide a follow-up system middle of the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 How mild and for how long? It could be a mild December still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It could be a mild December still.Ugh. Enter Don S. It seems you are hedging this way too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It could be a mild December still. I hate equating overall temps to snowfall output. Sure there is a correlation but even in a milder pattern we can get plenty of snow chances if the cold is timed right. I know this sucks for the folks who want to retain snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 I hate equating overall temps to snowfall output. Sure there is a correlation but even in a milder pattern we can get plenty of snow chances if the cold is timed right. I know this sucks for the folks who want to retain snow pack. Yeah usually we want it cold in December though for snow...as the avg temps are higher than mid winter. But we can still do it. Dec 2008 was like +1 and we had some great snow events. Dec 1956 too. Dec 1996 was a total torch but the interior had the Cantore Storm...though it all torched away by Dec 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 My thinking is Dec comes in normal to maybe -1. I could see us being on the right side of a very close by gradient. Like where you go not too far south and it's much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yeah usually we want it cold in December though for snow...as the avg temps are higher than mid winter. But we can still do it. Dec 2008 was like +1 and we had some great snow events. Dec 1956 too. Dec 1996 was a total torch but the interior had the Cantore Storm...though it all torched away by Dec 24th. For Dec, yes, but even than I would think with these past cold shots we've gotten, we can certainly "cash in" on some snow if the timing is right. 1st things 1st though, we need to get the pattern going to give us more storms. Today was a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 This is a nice euro Ens look for late this weekend. I would be encouraged in Will,Hunchie, MPM ,Dryslot, PF, Dendrite Etc land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Will I just don't see how this pattern can produce sustained periods of weather one way or the other. Volatile is the key word and I'm not sure ensembles will prove to be as useful as normal. not that the OP runs are going to be better but they may give an overall better idea of what is to come with the ensembles blending so much variability they miss the extent of both cold and warm shots. I still favor a low off the coast around T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland One ensemble run and you turn tail and run. Where's your confidence reverend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 My thinking is Dec comes in normal to maybe -1. I could see us being on the right side of a very close by gradient. Like where you go not too far south and it's much warmer Why are you changing your tune now instead of listening to us for days? The pattern overall has a decent look for this early in the season...but we aren't just covering our behinds when we mention the caveats. They are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.