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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Man though, looks like PF may clean up on upslope..

It's been there for several runs in some form. Honestly don't care where the thing tracks, as long as it ends up as a stacked closed system vicinity of FVE or north of there.

I mean this mornings run would be huge. Closed lows wrapping around plenty of cyclonic flow moisture off the Atlantic, and the wringing it out over the mountains on a beautiful WNW flow. The large hill in the backyard would know what to do with this set-up:

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It's been there for several runs in some form. Honestly don't care where the thing tracks, as long as it ends up as a stacked closed system vicinity of FVE or north of there.

I mean this mornings run would be huge. Closed lows wrapping around plenty of cyclonic flow moisture off the Atlantic, and the wringing it out over the mountains on a beautiful WNW flow. The large hill in the backyard would know what to do with this set-up:

image.jpg

All that upslope and yet little old WaWa beat you guys to opening.

Some house rattling gusts this morning.

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Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland

 

 

If someone offered you the look right now 3 weeks ago, you would have been a fool not to take it. We aren't going to get December 1983 or 1989  by T-day...or even 2002...its just not very relaistic to expect that. We're already going to be pretty cold T-day week and there's an outside chance at a snow event too...but as we've been discussing for days in this thread, there's a ton of uncertainty beyond T-day. Its not straight into the freezer that some may want to try and take this.

 

It could be, but there's also a very realistic chance we go mild too.

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If someone offered you the look right now 3 weeks ago, you would have been a fool not to take it. We aren't going to get December 1983 or 1989 by T-day...or even 2002...its just not very relaistic to expect that. We're already going to be pretty cold T-day week and there's an outside chance at a snow event too...but as we've been discussing for days in this thread, there's a ton of uncertainty beyond T-day. Its not straight into the freezer that some may want to try and take this.

It could be, but there's also a very realistic chance we go mild too.

How mild and for how long?
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Seems like its time to really start worrying again. Ugh. I was hoping we had made it to the promised land. Instead it looks possible our wx will be more like Disneyland

Patience.  This is why we discuss objectively, the good and bad.  Nice cold shot coming this week folled by a moderating trend into the weekend.  The weekend system is interesting.  Will have to see how the models handle the cutoff low out W.  If that digs far enough S and W it may allow for the weekend system to come far enough S to give us something worthwhile.  After that we'll need to watch how that cutoff ejects E into the flow.  Could provide a follow-up system middle of the following week.

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I hate equating overall temps to snowfall output.  Sure there is a correlation but even in a milder pattern we can get plenty of snow chances if the cold is timed right.  I know this sucks for the folks who want to retain snow pack.

 

 

Yeah usually we want it cold in December though for snow...as the avg temps are higher than mid winter. But we can still do it. Dec 2008 was like +1 and we had some great snow events. Dec 1956 too. Dec 1996 was a total torch but the interior had the Cantore Storm...though it all torched away by Dec 24th.

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Yeah usually we want it cold in December though for snow...as the avg temps are higher than mid winter. But we can still do it. Dec 2008 was like +1 and we had some great snow events. Dec 1956 too. Dec 1996 was a total torch but the interior had the Cantore Storm...though it all torched away by Dec 24th.

For Dec, yes, but even than I would think with these past cold shots we've gotten, we can certainly "cash in" on some snow if the timing is right.  1st things 1st though, we need to get the pattern going to give us more storms.  Today was a good start.

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Will I just don't see how this pattern can produce sustained periods of weather one way or the other.  Volatile is the key word and I'm not sure ensembles will prove to be as useful as normal.  not that the OP runs are going to be better but they may give an overall better idea of what is to come with the ensembles blending so much variability they miss the extent of both cold and warm shots. 

 

  I still favor a low off the coast around T-Day. 

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My thinking is Dec comes in normal to maybe -1. I could see us being on the right side of a very close by gradient. Like where you go not too far south and it's much warmer

 

Why are you changing your tune now instead of listening to us for days? The pattern overall has a decent look for this early in the season...but we aren't just covering our behinds when we mention the caveats. They are real.

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