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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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looks like atlantic ridging prevents much of it from moving east

 

 

Yeah a bit of a SE ridge, but its definitely still below normal in the northeast. The heart of the cold is over the lakes/N plains. IT is likely one of those patterns where the cold gets there first then oozes down over the top.

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Yeah a bit of a SE ridge, but its definitely still below normal in the northeast. The heart of the cold is over the lakes/N plains. IT is likely one of those patterns where the cold gets there first then oozes down over the top.

 

Yeah and I'd rather have the core of the cold west... keeps the storm track nearby. Favorable for SWFEs/Miller Bs?

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Yeah unsure what he was getting at other than the usual trolling. With a -NAo in place it's not a cutter pattern.

 

Nice to see 4 or 5 mets correct him

 

 

I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England.

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I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England.

i'd rather see negative height anomalies over newfoundland than the positive anomalies shown on the ens mean. at least for anything interesting
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I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England.

I think others were refuting it wasn't a cutter pattern like he proclaimed. Maybe in South Jersey where that poster it located it wouldn't be very good for winter lovers

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I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England.

 

Cape Cod's greatest snowstorm was originially an APPS runner which turned coastal as it redeveloped offshore of the Delmarva peninsula.

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Cape Cod's greatest snowstorm was originially an APPS runner which turned coastal as it redeveloped offshore of the Delmarva peninsula.

 

 

I assume you are talking Jan 2005? That was not an Apps runner...it was a potent clipper diving in from the Great Lakes that redeveloped as a Miller B.

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i'd rather see negative height anomalies over newfoundland than the positive anomalies shown on the ens mean. at least for anything interesting

 

Meh... I think you're a little picky. The pattern looks pretty good IMO. Not going to search for a 50/50 low on a D12 ensemble mean. 

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Yeah and I'd rather have the core of the cold west... keeps the storm track nearby. Favorable for SWFEs/Miller Bs?

Man you guys are sounding like us western New Englanders, lol. Keep the cold and baroclinic zone as far west as possible without cutters. Looks good for some coastal plain trackers or right along the coastline.

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My reaction to watching the euro ensembles was one of excitement for what they were showing developing by around the 25th. With that being said, I don't disagree with what forky is saying. I think it is a pattern that would probably have a cutter or 2 INITIALLY...The ridge is off the west coast and to the east it is more of a north atlantic ridge versus greenland based. But at day 12 with that look and that cold air dumping into Canada via -EPO, I would never count out New England even if I think the storm track is favored a bit west. 

 

Moreover, I'd sign up for that pattern developing on November 25th any year. Hope it's right

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My reaction to watching the euro ensembles was one of excitement for what they were showing developing by around the 25th. With that being said, I don't disagree with what forky is saying. I think it is a pattern that would probably have a cutter or 2 INITIALLY...The ridge is off the west coast and to the east it is more of a north atlantic ridge versus greenland based. But at day 12 with that look and that cold air dumping into Canada via -EPO, I would never count out New England even if I think the storm track is favored a bit west. 

 

Moreover, I'd sign up for that pattern developing on November 25th any year. Hope it's right

 

I'm starting to think at least the beginning of December could be favorable for wintry wx. Seems like indices like tropical forcing etc are trying to help out the H5 pattern in the Pacific.

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Glad to see you mets coming around. Welcome aboard

Yeah it's nice to have the data actually supporting a favorable pattern in the future, rather than a hope and a prayer. Bring it on, winters rolling in.

What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid?

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At around this time last year I was in the beginning stages of accumulating a bounty of free meals on weathafella's dime. 

 

I have none of those feelings about this year.  I think we're in for an old fashioned winter.  Todays mini-event only goes to show what this pattern is able to potentially deliver in terms of cold with massive November departures.  Sure we may not have some of the indicators in place that would lead to prolonged stable weather patterns but who cares?  As long as we get threats I'll take a week of one pattern and a week of another.  It all works for me in the end.

 

Transient may be one of the keywords for this winter.

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What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid?

Sorry that's not what I meant Jerry...I'm not sure what the less conventional ways you are talking about includes, but the just was more that it's nice to see a good consensus of model data that shows good things ahead for winter lovers...if that makes sense.

I'm all for squirrels and that stuff, but it's nice having the data back it up.

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