CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I need my toaster bath pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Nice! I was bummed then but I've learned to expect what's not only possible but in the realm of probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I need my toaster bath pic. Albany FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I don't think there's anyone weenies that wouldn't risk sitting in deep traffic for hours if it meant snow on or near Tgiving. Most people who don't read weather discussions would be miserable. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Interesting for the 1971 event once you got north of Boston, snow was substantial all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Interesting for the 1971 event once you got north of Boston, snow was substantial all the way to the coast. The coastal front probably spent less time onshore thanks their latitude and shape of coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 1971 storm gained latitude while hugging the coast until it reached about LI and then almost went ENE. So this hurt the SNE coastline more than further north. The mid-level center also actually brought the 0C line nearly to 495...which is why you don't see interior SE MA with any snow. So it wasn't purely a CF thing...there were mid-level issues too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 1971 storm gained latitude while hugging the coast until it reached about LI and then almost went ENE. So this hurt the SNE coastline more than further north. The mid-level center also actually brought the 0C line nearly to 495...which is why you don't see interior SE MA with any snow. So it wasn't purely a CF thing...there were mid-level issues too. Very similar track to the dreaded 12/30/00 particularly wrt the mid level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Very similar track to the dreaded 12/30/00 particularly wrt the mid level low. Yeah, it formed a bit northwest of 12/30/00, but as it approached SNE it was kind of similar. NJ (outside of Sussex county) and NYC area didn't get much because of the further northwest formation...it was almost hugging ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS looks interesting in regards to the 23-24th time frame, has two clipper lows moving through Ontario, Canada, one reforms offshore of ME, and the other is near Lake Superior. This is as of 129 hours. 5-6 days away from the arctic plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 0Z/18 gfs continues the theme. A lobe of the pv practically over us as we begin thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 0Z/18 gfs continues the theme. A lobe of the pv practically over us as we begin thanksgiving week. I think the GFS is close to being right if that ridging over British Columbia, Canada can ridge into most of the Arctic Circle on our side of the Hemisphere. That will allow the PV to slide right over top of us, however there are limitations to as far south it can go since this is still November. That PNA ridge really blossoms as we near hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I think tomorrow's date in 1993 hit 78 at BOS. A week later the Leon Lett arctic blast. Back and for the but mainly mild the first half of December and the hammer drops around Christmas for a 2-3 month ride in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS OP colder now for next weekend again. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Lol.....gfs says happy birthday to me! I'll save you all the trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Through the entire 384 hour run this one is weenie! Good night friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Lol.....gfs says happy birthday to me! I'll save you all the trouble... LOL what a cold run. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 LOL what a cold run. Pretty impressive. It goes like Dec 1989 on us this run out in weenie range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It goes like Dec 1989 on us this run out in weenie range. Yup - just cold shot after cold shot. We'll see if this winds up verifying! Worst would be if we manage to stay cold and can't sneak in a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yup - just cold shot after cold shot. We'll see if this winds up verifying! Worst would be if we manage to stay cold and can't sneak in a snow event. GGEM has a nice Miller B next weekend. I think we've seen everything from a cutter, to a weak wave, to an ice storm, to a Apps runner, a straight whiff, and now a Miller B for next weekend. At the very least, its going to be interesting tracking the evolution of all of this. Not just next weekend and early next week where its looking more and more likely for a big cold shot...but also near and after T-day...where it could be really cold or legitimately mild...either one is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GGEM has a nice Miller B next weekend. I think we've seen everything from a cutter, to a weak wave, to an ice storm, to a Apps runner, a straight whiff, and now a Miller B for next weekend. At the very least, its going to be interesting tracking the evolution of all of this. Not just next weekend and early next week where its looking more and more likely for a big cold shot...but also near and after T-day...where it could be really cold or legitimately mild...either one is believable. A high confidence setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Boy what a frigid run of the 00z GEFS ensembles. Wow. Hopefully there are snow threats in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro still likes the idea of a wave along the front with snows on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The 06Z GFS brings a little love to north to north-central and northwest MA on Saturday before the arctic blast. Doesn't look like too many open windows on Sunday. 56.0/55 .40" so far, torrential with this line going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Up to .46" with the last batch entering the county now. Looks like things will be clearing by sunrise. With all the focus on possible cold weather this weekend, I missed the wind potential for today: Today: Partly sunny with showers this morning...then sunny this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. Highs around 60. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph...decreasing to 35 mph this afternoon. Too bad I'll be driving to northern VT for a meeting this afternoon--I had thought I was going to west-central VT. Maggelen, ftl. 55.2/55, EDIT: just recorded an 8' gust of 22mph--not too shabby. Looks like the front came through here at 5:00a.m. with the temp drop beginning about 45 minutes after. 54.4/54 off a high of 56.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Euro still likes the idea of a wave along the front with snows on Sunday To rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Still a lot of uncertainty on the euro ensembles in la la land. Looks like cold wantsto try and come down beyond the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ensembles develop a wave right over us this weekend. Looks like a PF special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Definitely a waxing and waning with the EPO with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ensembles develop a wave right over us this weekend. Looks like a PF special. Seasons in seasons. Wintry (cold) start to met winter is the biggest signal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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