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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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The 1971 storm gained latitude while hugging the coast until it reached about LI and then almost went ENE. So this hurt the SNE coastline more than further north. The mid-level center also actually brought the 0C line nearly to 495...which is why you don't see interior SE MA with any snow. So it wasn't purely a CF thing...there were mid-level issues too.

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The 1971 storm gained latitude while hugging the coast until it reached about LI and then almost went ENE. So this hurt the SNE coastline more than further north. The mid-level center also actually brought the 0C line nearly to 495...which is why you don't see interior SE MA with any snow. So it wasn't purely a CF thing...there were mid-level issues too.

Very similar track to the dreaded 12/30/00 particularly wrt the mid level low.

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Very similar track to the dreaded 12/30/00 particularly wrt the mid level low.

 

 

Yeah, it formed a bit northwest of 12/30/00, but as it approached SNE it was kind of similar. NJ (outside of Sussex county) and NYC area didn't get much because of the further northwest formation...it was almost hugging ACY.

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0Z/18 gfs continues the theme. A lobe of the pv practically over us as we begin thanksgiving week.

 

I think the GFS is close to being right if that ridging over British Columbia, Canada can ridge into most of the Arctic Circle on our side of the Hemisphere.  That will allow the PV to slide right over top of us, however there are limitations to as far south it can go since this is still November.  That PNA ridge really blossoms as we near hour 156.

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Yup - just cold shot after cold shot. We'll see if this winds up verifying!

 

Worst would be if we manage to stay cold and can't sneak in a snow event.

 

 

GGEM has a nice Miller B next weekend. :lol:

 

I think we've seen everything from a cutter, to a weak wave, to an ice storm, to a Apps runner, a straight whiff, and now a Miller B for next weekend. At the very least, its going to be interesting tracking the evolution of all of this. Not just next weekend and early next week where its looking more and more likely for a big cold shot...but also near and after T-day...where it could be really cold or legitimately mild...either one is believable.

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GGEM has a nice Miller B next weekend. :lol:

 

I think we've seen everything from a cutter, to a weak wave, to an ice storm, to a Apps runner, a straight whiff, and now a Miller B for next weekend. At the very least, its going to be interesting tracking the evolution of all of this. Not just next weekend and early next week where its looking more and more likely for a big cold shot...but also near and after T-day...where it could be really cold or legitimately mild...either one is believable.

 

A high confidence setup! 

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Up to .46" with the last batch entering the county now.  Looks like things will be clearing by sunrise.

 

With all the focus on possible cold weather this weekend, I missed the wind potential for today:

 

Today: Partly sunny with showers this morning...then sunny this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. Highs around 60. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph...decreasing to 35 mph this afternoon.

 

Too bad I'll be driving to northern VT for a meeting this afternoon--I had thought I was going to west-central VT.  Maggelen, ftl.

 

55.2/55,

 

 

EDIT:  just recorded an 8' gust of 22mph--not too shabby.  Looks like the front came through here at 5:00a.m. with the temp drop beginning about 45 minutes after.

 

54.4/54 off a high of 56.0

post-462-0-93405900-1384772200_thumb.gif

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