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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Yep, and I thought it was a lock for AN about 3 weeks ago. Funny how this pattern shook out. Thank you Pacific.

 

It's been a very unstable longwave pattern too... not a surprise given the time of year. Obviously still a lot to sort out but the ridging in the EPO domain continues to be good news down the line. We'll need some luck to get some snow in here but odds are definitely better than climo for measureable snow. 

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Ryans got snowflakes on the online/ on air forecast for Sunday

 

Yup I have rain showers on Saturday and rain/snow showers for Sunday. 44 for the high Saturday and 34 for the high Sunday. We'll see... pretty low confidence. Models have been all over the place last 36 hours.

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It's been a very unstable longwave pattern too... not a surprise given the time of year. Obviously still a lot to sort out but the ridging in the EPO domain continues to be good news down the line. We'll need some luck to get some snow in here but odds are definitely better than climo for measureable snow.

Yeah a very progressive one at that. The cold shots overall have won the battle....I hope it continues in December.

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I like Will and Ryan's comments.  Unstable pattern is probably the best way of stating it.  I like this pattern.

 

Sunny, I think for Thanksgiving the focus isn't on the major storm a few models have shown...they seem to be doing this to some degree with almost every event in the longer ranges but then back off as it approaches.  I'm expecting that may be the case here too so we don't end up with this major system but instead something less dramatic and as a result colder.

 

This may not be the winter of the epic storms we've been seeing over the last several years to some degree or another.  I could see this easily being a winter with faster moving .3 to .6" QPF type events but coming at us in rapid fashion.

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I like Will and Ryan's comments.  Unstable pattern is probably the best way of stating it.  I like this pattern.

 

Sunny, I think for Thanksgiving the focus isn't on the major storm a few models have shown...they seem to be doing this to some degree with almost every event in the longer ranges but then back off as it approaches.  I'm expecting that may be the case here too so we don't end up with this major system but instead something less dramatic and as a result colder.

 Usually models that far out show something crazy anyways so I'm not buying into a big storm on T-day just yet. I really hope we get nothing because I don't want to be sitting in traffic for 2+ hours (and I know others will be sitting in it longer).

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I like Will and Ryan's comments. Unstable pattern is probably the best way of stating it. I like this pattern.

Sunny, I think for Thanksgiving the focus isn't on the major storm a few models have shown...they seem to be doing this to some degree with almost every event in the longer ranges but then back off as it approaches. I'm expecting that may be the case here too so we don't end up with this major system but instead something less dramatic and as a result colder.

This may not be the winter of the epic storms we've been seeing over the last several years to some degree or another. I could see this easily being a winter with faster moving .3 to .6" QPF type events but coming at us in rapid fashion.

Yeah I'd prefer that to a winter with 1 or 2 big storms, with warm temps after the storm.

I remember several winters when I was younger where it was cold and we got a lot of 2/4 3-6 type events but the snow lasted and it didn't have massive temp fluctuations.

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I like Will and Ryan's comments. Unstable pattern is probably the best way of stating it. I like this pattern.

Sunny, I think for Thanksgiving the focus isn't on the major storm a few models have shown...they seem to be doing this to some degree with almost every event in the longer ranges but then back off as it approaches. I'm expecting that may be the case here too so we don't end up with this major system but instead something less dramatic and as a result colder.

This may not be the winter of the epic storms we've been seeing over the last several years to some degree or another. I could see this easily being a winter with faster moving .3 to .6" QPF type events but coming at us in rapid fashion.

I think next weekends event if we can get the cold in here nicely could drop a few inches for many in the area.

That should be watched more than the t day storm I believe

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Usually models that far out show something crazy anyways so I'm not buying into a big storm on T-day just yet. I really hope we get nothing because I don't want to be sitting in traffic for 2+ hours (and I know others will be sitting in it longer).

I hope we are sitting in traffic for 4+ hrs and that there is so much blowing and drifting you can't see 10 feet in front of you

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Yeah I'd prefer that to a winter with 1 or 2 big storms, with warm temps after the storm.

I remember several winters when I was younger where it was cold and we got a lot of 2/4 3-6 type events but the snow lasted and it didn't have massive temp fluctuations.

Yeah usually after a big storm we get somewhat of a pattern change with warmer air streaming in off the water or nice ridging coming in from the west behind the front. I always welcome it. :frostymelt:

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Usually models that far out show something crazy anyways so I'm not buying into a big storm on T-day just yet. I really hope we get nothing because I don't want to be sitting in traffic for 2+ hours (and I know others will be sitting in it longer).

I don't think there's anyone that wouldn't risk sitting in deep traffic for hours if it meant snow on or near Tgiving
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Jeez, everyone is in the tropics and we struggled to break 40 in the upper Pioneer Valley. Raw.

42 and the sheet drizzle continues.

Feels like November though.

 

We broke into the 40's easily, but it's been a tedious climb up from there.  At the current high of 47.2/46 now.  Hopefully, we'll get into some of the rains like Dave got.

 

or a 2002. Just heavy heavy snow on travel day FTW

 

Nothing beats heavy snow on travel day when you don't need to travel anywhere (like me).  Not that there's any traffic here in GC anyway.

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Rainy turkey day doesn't bother me either....as long as it's a cold rain, I forget the year...maybe 1971 when there was much hope. A full in Arctic blast made us weenies hopeful. I went to clinic on the day before thanksgiving with am temps in the low 20s and clouds moving in. When I left in the afternoon it was in the upper 30s with strong marine influence. I think Albany got 20 inches. We had thanksgiving at our cousins house then in LI....some quick hitting snow squalls to end the event.

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Rainy turkey day doesn't bother me either....as long as it's a cold rain, I forget the year...maybe 1971 when there was much hope. A full in Arctic blast made us weenies hopeful. I went to clinic on the day before thanksgiving with am temps in the low 20s and clouds moving in. When I left in the afternoon it was in the upper 30s with strong marine influence. I think Albany got 20 inches. We had thanksgiving at our cousins house then in LI....some quick hitting snow squalls to end the event.

 

 

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Rainy turkey day doesn't bother me either....as long as it's a cold rain, I forget the year...maybe 1971 when there was much hope. A full in Arctic blast made us weenies hopeful. I went to clinic on the day before thanksgiving with am temps in the low 20s and clouds moving in. When I left in the afternoon it was in the upper 30s with strong marine influence. I think Albany got 20 inches. We had thanksgiving at our cousins house then in LI....some quick hitting snow squalls to end the event.

We've had plenty of wet and raw Thanksgivings that I can remember.

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