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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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What does "superblend" mean?

 

GFS IS MUCH FASTER BUT IS COLDER AND WOULD POTENTIALLY GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF CLEARING OUT SAT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND SPITS BACK MOISTURE OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THAT WERE THE CASE. SO...IN SHORT... HAVE GONE WITH SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH RANGE FROM 35 PERCENT NORTH TO 55 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THIS FORECAST

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drizzle and mid 30s much of the day here in Concord NH.  surprisingly raw and cold, but typical of this area.

 

I am excited as I have been about a winter since we moved here, with the exception of 08-09 (our first full winter up here).  The step down has been really nice.  We are coming off of a dry but fairly normal fall, increasingly good cold shots, and now a persistant signal for snow and cold.  I think gettting into a snowy period in late November early Dec is very good for up here because we have the lowest sun angle in December/early January, and we have a signal for a cold source.  This pattern could get us as cold as we've been since I've lived here (about 20 below).

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Is that a 93-94 deal?  didn't we have a strong -EPO with cross polar flow and a HB vortex?  I think that would mean a swfe pattern yes?  Moist but perhaps more moderate storms and redevelopers but not a slow moving coastal blockbuster?

SIPS is nice. Had what appears to be a nice -EPO with the PV over ern/SE Hudson Bay. Would appear that it's a good position to drive some cold air at times, but heights are not abnormal here so probably a bit of a ying and yang perhaps? Bit of a QPF max se of Nova Scotia...maybe indicating coastals. 

 

SIPS is nice. Had what appears to be a nice -EPO with the PV over ern/SE Hudson Bay. Would appear that it's a good position to drive some cold air at times, but heights are not abnormal here so probably a bit of a ying and yang perhaps? Bit of a QPF max se of Nova Scotia...maybe indicating coastals. 

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SIPS is nice. Had what appears to be a nice -EPO with the PV over ern/SE Hudson Bay. Would appear that it's a good position to drive some cold air at times, but heights are not abnormal here so probably a bit of a ying and yang perhaps? Bit of a QPF max se of Nova Scotia...maybe indicating coastals. 

Offshore coastals FTW.

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Is that a 93-94 deal?  didn't we have a strong -EPO with cross polar flow and a HB vortex?  I think that would mean a swfe pattern yes?  Moist but perhaps more moderate storms and redevelopers but not a slow moving coastal blockbuster?

 

It could favor SWFE or Miller Bs depending on how the pattern resolved itself...IE is there any blocking..etc. It's not far off from 93.94 lol.

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Well we don't want them onshore. LOL. I think QPF is probably least in terms of scoring with these models...I honestly tend to only look at the H5 pattern. I can deduce what the storm track may be from that.

Haha I guess I meant "well far offshore" so we don't get squat here. You see the 18Z GFS for T-day lol. I hope it doesn't rain I can't afford for traffic to get any worse than it already will be.

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Deep snow OTG as we cut the bird and gather round and sing carols..Euro says yes

 

 

pic.twitter.com/fleNIzXD1h

 

Most of that looks like it will come form the system poised to pass through on the 24th since that's a 10 day precip accumulation graphic with a 10:1 ratio. T-Day doesn't look like anything but rain as of right now for most. You may see some weenie flakes since you're higher up and further inland but it's still too early to really tell. Models are onto something around that time period though. Bastardi hyping as always.

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Well we don't want them onshore. LOL. I think QPF is probably least in terms of scoring with these models...I honestly tend to only look at the H5 pattern. I can deduce what the storm track may be from that.

 

Just give me some Cape tracks please.

 

It could favor SWFE or Miller Bs depending on how the pattern resolved itself...IE is there any blocking..etc. It's not far off from 93.94 lol.

 

SWFE and Miller B's are GC friends.

 

Stepping away from the backyard comments, though--it is encouraging to have some sense of winter being hinted at.  But it's a few days too early to latch onto anything.  Remember the big snows that we had in store for last week.  That played out nicely for us.  :)

 

45.9/45

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Most of that looks like it will come form the system poised to pass through on the 24th since that's a 10 day precip accumulation graphic with a 10:1 ratio. T-Day doesn't look like anything but rain as of right now for most. You may see some weenie flakes since you're higher up and further inland but it's still too early to really tell. Models are onto something around that time period though. Bastardi hyping as always.

 

Weenies love the 10-day accumulated snowfall maps...Bastardi isn't an idiot, he knows what works on social media.  Those might be even better than the RPM runs prior to a big storm. 

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18z GFS is cold and looks like it was run out of my basement this time.  That's a fairly large upslope snowstorm next weekend, then a decent Thanksgiving snowstorm for the deeper interior.  The GFS has had that Thanksgiving system the past several runs, which is interesting consistency for a la la land prog, lol.  Hopefully we can capitalize on this cold air coming in. 

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It could favor SWFE or Miller Bs depending on how the pattern resolved itself...IE is there any blocking..etc. It's not far off from 93.94 lol.

 

It could favor SWFE or Miller Bs depending on how the pattern resolved itself...IE is there any blocking..etc. It's not far off from 93.94 lol.

That is what I was hoping.  I thought Jerry might chime in on this.  Jerry?  Jerry!  93-94 at the door.

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I think Kev must walk around naked, sticking to the couch, lol. One day, one day left in the period. Very lame departures for this highly advertised torch period or has Scoob would say, helluva way to run a torch.

 

 

Its probably a lock now that all stations finish the month below average.

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