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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Shop online but if a 9 year old girls wants to try on clothes, it's a great bonding experience with mom an daughter alone.

 

They'll have that in a couple weeks when they make the annual birthday drive to Newton to go to the American Girl store.  Thank God that's a hundred miles away.  One of those dolls costs a dollar per mile. 

 

To the weather--Will's joking 'fix' to ten runs is all too true.  I think it's safe to say that the pattern--if it plays out as most models are showing--are ripe for some type of event.  But this far out, I'd be reluctant to put any stock in any single system as portrayed.  I know people are posting comments as verbatum reads to the models.  But at this time frame, I'm more in 'pattern mode' rather than anything specific.

 

Meanwhile, what a crappy day.

 

45.5/44

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Still a yo yo on the ensembles as the 12z EC ensembles corrected a bit from the cold 00z run next weekend. The ensembles have a wave along the front it appears.

i feel like its a precarious set-up with the PV and trough axis where it is. if we lose any of those higher heights poking into the arctic circle north of alaska the PV will be/is too far north. 

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Are they still wintry looking or are they mild cold mild cold?

850 Date Minimum Mean

17.11.2013 12 GMT 8.5 °C

18.11.2013 12 GMT -1.9 °C

19.11.2013 12 GMT -6.8 °C

20.11.2013 12 GMT 0.1 °C

21.11.2013 12 GMT 0.7 °C

22.11.2013 12 GMT 0.0 °C

23.11.2013 12 GMT -4.6 °C

24.11.2013 12 GMT -11.7 °C

25.11.2013 12 GMT -11.3 °C

26.11.2013 12 GMT -7.4 °C

27.11.2013 12 GMT -7.7 °C

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i feel like its a precarious set-up with the PV and trough axis where it is. if we lose any of those higher heights poking into the arctic circle north of alaska the PV will be/is too far north.

That why I'd like to see some sort of a -NAO appear, but we are very PAC dependent at the moment since a -NAO doesn't really show itself much in the 11-15 day. I also wonder if the mean is too smoothed one way or another. I highly doubt we stay as static as the mean shows in terms of thicknesses for that long in the 11-15 day. I do think it offers some storms as shown and the cold source is not too far away.

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850 Date Minimum Mean

17.11.2013 12 GMT 8.5 °C

18.11.2013 12 GMT -1.9 °C

19.11.2013 12 GMT -6.8 °C

20.11.2013 12 GMT 0.1 °C

21.11.2013 12 GMT 0.7 °C

22.11.2013 12 GMT 0.0 °C

23.11.2013 12 GMT -4.6 °C

24.11.2013 12 GMT -11.7 °C

25.11.2013 12 GMT -11.3 °C

26.11.2013 12 GMT -7.4 °C

27.11.2013 12 GMT -7.7 °C

 

 

Looks a little nipply on a couple of those days.  What locale is that?

 

40's Fri/ Sat ahead of fropa?

 

BOX is calling for lower 40's on Friday, mid 30's on Saturday for GC (and upper 20's Sunday).  But, this far out, take it with more than a grain of salt.

 

45.7/45

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That why I'd like to see some sort of a -NAO appear, but we are very PAC dependent at the moment since a -NAO doesn't really show itself much in the 11-15 day. I also wonder if the mean is too smoothed one way or another. I highly doubt we stay as static as the mean shows in terms of thicknesses for that long in the 11-15 day. I do think it offers some storms as shown and the cold source is not too far away.

yeah. and i suppose beggars can't be choosers either. i'd like to see the core of that vortex further SE but eh...we'll see how where it goes. 

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yeah. and i suppose beggars can't be choosers either. i'd like to see the core of that vortex further SE but eh...we'll see how where it goes. 

 

 

Considering the time of the year, its pretty good. Hard to get the PV as far south this time of the year. This definitely looks like it has potential for the most impressive November airmass to hit the CONUS in probably at least a decade...maybe 2000?

 

We'll obviously have to see how it trends.

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SIPS is nice. Had what appears to be a nice -EPO with the PV over ern/SE Hudson Bay. Would appear that it's a good position to drive some cold air at times, but heights are not abnormal here so probably a bit of a ying and yang perhaps? Bit of a QPF max se of Nova Scotia...maybe indicating coastals. 

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