weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cmc is a huge outlier. It just doesn't send the cold more than a glance. Euro through d4-5 is already hugely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If this were a EL Nino winter season, I would go with the GGEM, as it clearly has slower northern vort energy allowing it to phase with the southern vort energy, however since this is a rather neutral ENSO winter season, chances are southern and northern vort energies are likely to be more progressive in nature, allowing such a 12z GFS solution to be more true than the GGEM solution. Just an observation of past weather events and modeled events. This post doesn't compute to me. There's not much of a phase but more of a strung out system on cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cmc is a huge outlier. It just doesn't send the cold more than a glance. Euro through d4-5 is already hugely different. Nice... will probably be able to keep the forecast confidently on the cooler side as we go into Saturday. Not surprising the CMC is an outlier, but it was such a vastly different scenario in sensible weather (cold and dry vs. warm and wet) this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 i don't really disagree...my only point the last few days has been: take today's gfs run, as good as it looks (and it looks good no doubt), the run ends 12/3. it's just still super early in the season. it's not the same as seeing this kind of a model run around xmas. climo is still relatively warm (case in point, look at today) so after an anomalous air mass departs you aren't really left with "cold". hopefully it goes "belly- to - belly" . I don't see this as a belly to belly at all. I just see it as a more normal winter where we have 1-2 week spells of colder weather and potential. We will be walking the tightrope too, next weekend is a perfect example where it likely ends up really warm or really cold. Com is one way, others so far are colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cmc is a huge outlier. It just doesn't send the cold more than a glance. Euro through d4-5 is already hugely different.huge surprise, ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro is just a fropa, but some anafrontal precip behind it. Clearly the cutoff over the SW will play havoc with the models over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro has many if us waking to white ground Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro is just a fropa, but some anafrontal precip behind it. Clearly the cutoff over the SW will play havoc with the models over the next few days. Scott how is the timing on the cold coming back in? Still Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A beautiful look d7 and beyond on the (unfortunately the operational) euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Scott how is the timing on the cold coming back in? Still Friday? Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A beautiful look d7 and beyond on the (unfortunately the operational) euro. Saturday along with -SN. Still a very volatile setup. Cutoff lows over the SW plus 6-7 days out equal model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Damn....-26C h85 in southern Quebec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Saturday along with -SN. Still a very volatile setup. Cutoff lows over the SW plus 6-7 days out equal model mayhem. As fella mentioned earlier the euro and sw cutoffs Watching the bears game, postponed as they're about to get hit. Impressive outbreak,,..8-9 warnings at one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Saturday along with -SN. Still a very volatile setup. Cutoff lows over the SW plus 6-7 days out equal model mayhem. The old tv weatherman in la dr george fishbeck used to say "cutoff low is weatherman's wow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I agree, the SW energy will play a huge roll in the outcome come Friday through Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Bona fide mid winter cold next Sunday afternoon through Monday in the euro. Cooking something beyond. Yes it's the op I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Very cold air into Southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I don't know what to think right now, but with regards to the teleconnections, the arctic oscillation will be heading towards neutral with some negative pulses embedded in the overall mean neutral, with regards to the NAO and PNA they both near neutral as well towards the 22nd. I think we end up with a coastal low, but whether or not its out to sea or a hit will be determined by the interaction of energy between the southern and northern streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 EURO shows a negative phase of the AO as a large polar vortex sits near the Hudson Bay towards day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Good reading. Hanks for the updates. 45 minute drive to get to old navy for 9-year old clothes shopping, ftl.shoot me now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 It will be just my luck that we get a monster snowstorm when I'm in Buffalo, NY. The way it looks right now, a huge Lake Effect snowstorm is just as likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 It will be just my luck that we get a monster snowstorm when I'm in Buffalo, NY. The way it looks right now, a huge Lake Effect snowstorm is just as likely. You'll see some great les. I remember being in Rochester for the first 2 weeks of December 1995....returning for a 10 inch dump 12/14 in Boston. The les machine can be magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 As fella mentioned earlier the euro and sw cutoffs Watching the bears game, postponed as they're about to get hit. Impressive outbreak,,..8-9 warnings at one time Yeah clearing the stands and asking people to take cover. Lots of posts on Social Media about why that game was not postponed or cancelled prior to filling the stands, with a high-confidence forecast of severe weather at game time. If anything happens it seems like some of the media will be all over the NFL, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Good reading. Hanks for the updates. 45 minute drive to get to old navy for 9-year old clothes shopping, ftl.shoot me now..... Shop online but if a 9 year old girls wants to try on clothes, it's a great bonding experience with mom an daughter alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro's a nice 1-3 or 2-4 type event next Sat nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 You'll see some great les. I remember being in Rochester for the first 2 weeks of December 1995....returning for a 10 inch dump 12/14 in Boston. The les machine can be magical. I went to my cousins house for Thanksgiving one year and I believe it was 2000 or sometime near that year; that November we had a wicked LES event, over 36" of snow fell for around a 12-18 hour period. We got smoked, and we were trapped in the car for a good 18-20 hours. The next morning we went into the Holiday Inn, they had free breakfast and waited for my Aunt to pick us up, where my dad stayed with the car and was with the car for a total of 30 hours straight. It was unconceivable but we managed to make it and I will never forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 To me it looks like the Euro makes a slight nod towards the Canadian with respect to the slower speed of the northern stream trough and slight interaction with the cutoff in the SWUS around day 5. The Euro still looks a lot more like the GFS than anything else. But I wonder if guidance might incrementally move towards increased interaction. Curious how many individual ensemble members of the EC, GFS, and CMC might try to phase part of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Euro's a nice 1-3 or 2-4 type event next Sat nite Yeah that would be a nice little snowfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 It was November 2000, Lake Effect Snowstorm Chestnut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Yeah that would be a nice little snowfall there. Just hope we can hold it a few more runs to make sure it's imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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