November weather dicsussion

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

As it always is, there are a million and one things that need to fall in place for interior southeast mass this time if year to have a legit snow threat. However, with temps as modeled I wouldn't be surprised if we could pull something off

[NJwinter23]

Nice link ginxy. Seems like he is hedging normal to slightly above into early- January , thou he says it could be cooler, then bottom drops out. I found it interesting that he assumes the QBO which has fallen last two months will "automatically" continue to fall 4 more points to the "blocking and stormy range, or at least that is how it sounded. I mean what logic do we have that a QBO that falls from 16 to 12 from sept to November will not RISE a bit in Dec or Jan? (Serious question/ trying to learn)

 

 

DT going belly to belly, wow

http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/WINTER13-14short.ppt

 

His read on the SAI is incorrect. The snow cover extent inEurasia was high, but the advancement was not good at all.

 

We'll see how it plays out. Brr next weekend indeed.

[N. OF PIKE]

Personally i would take Riccardo's forecast of a positive AO more seriously and i think that positive phase will dominate sign more than not later dec and most of Jan/Feb , i think we see winter late novie into early dec and then hopefully the pacific co-operates but either way i think it will be a roller coaster jan-feb with torches and normal periods and the Pacific doesnt look bad but i have much less confidence in long term pacific outlook and that could mean we could likely be best case (slightly below overall to much above) . The latter if pacific goes to worse state after early dec and persists.

If it works out that we have relatively brief periods of blocking we would need exceptional timing to maximize any big threats, also a bigger issue may just be total precip (and i think that is what has powder freak leaving a few reindeer sweaters hanging above the trees that overlook the picnic tables) bc i think NNE can cash in big still in a + AO so long as it isn't extreme in nature.

[CoastalWx]

Don't forget the AO is a total circulation over the polar regions and the intensity also needs to be taken into consideration. If the avg AO is just into the positive range...we still can do very well. It's definitely going to be dropping over the next two weeks.

[weathafella]

Personally i would take Riccardo's forecast of a positive AO more seriously and i think that positive phase will dominate sign more than not later dec and most of Jan/Feb , i think we see winter late novie into early dec and then hopefully the pacific co-operates but either way i think it will be a roller coaster jan-feb with torches and normal periods and the Pacific doesnt look bad but i have much less confidence in long term pacific outlook and that could mean we could likely be best case (slightly below overall to much above) . The latter if pacific goes to worse state after early dec and persists.

If it works out that we have relatively brief periods of blocking we would need exceptional timing to maximize any big threats, also a bigger issue may just be total precip (and i think that is what has powder freak leaving a few reindeer sweaters hanging above the trees that overlook the picnic tables) bc i think NNE can cash in big still in a + AO so long as it isn't extreme in nature.

Ricardo is also calling for a cold winter here per those charts.

I woke up and looked at the 0Z suite and cried out...HOLY FUK THATS COLD!

[powderfreak]

In relative weather sense, figured that was understood

 

Verbatim both the 00z GFS and 6z GFS would be huge upslope events later in the weekend.  12z seems to have backed off but would still definitely be close with closed H7 and H5 lows north of the area.  It looks like it would be deep layer WSW flow advecting great lakes moisture into the region, then the winds turn more WNW and slam that moisture into the mountains.  With those temps, snow growth would be phenomenal.  I certainly like the set up and just need to get those closed lows up near FVE. 

[weathafella]

Pickles called for BOS to have 25 inches in the cusp of 2010-11.

[Heisy]

Turkey Day Noreaster on the GFS, the ULL in the Southwest slowly ejects, I guess if you timed it right with the cold being reinforced from the northern branch it would be a colder storm. EURO has a similar setup as well. 

[powderfreak]

If it works out that we have relatively brief periods of blocking we would need exceptional timing to maximize any big threats, also a bigger issue may just be total precip (and i think that is what has powder freak leaving a few reindeer sweaters hanging above the trees that overlook the picnic tables) bc i think NNE can cash in big still in a + AO so long as it isn't extreme in nature.

 

Awesome visual... I'm going to figure out a way to make that a reality, lol.  I'll have to get some sweaters up on the flag pole. 

 

I'm actually not as worried about precip as I usually am.  Things have been rolling our way in the QPF department this fall.  Already 3" of liquid halfway through November, including a 1.00" upslope event here in town (which is a lot of QPF for purely orographic driven precip).  NNE has been relatively wet this fall...the guys in Maine have had even more I think from earlier in Sept/Oct. 

 

I've started to feel better about this winter in the past two weeks... I like to see things falling into place to some regard.  I'm also just patiently waiting as NNE hasn't had a relative jackpot in a few winters, as SNE has had the higher departures from normal in 2011 and 2013.  We'll pick it up one of these winters. 

[powderfreak]

Turkey Day Noreaster on the GFS, the ULL in the Southwest slowly ejects, I guess if you timed it right with the cold being reinforced from the northern branch it would be a colder storm. EURO has a similar setup as well. 

 

This would certainly be acceptable on Thanksgiving.  Weenie hope and a prayer though. 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

serious cold on the GFS. sub 500 thicknesses into the NE and 850s down to -16C into SNE. 

[weathafella]

Pickles remember I still love you. I am just pointing out your worry wort oersonna when it comes to winter expectations.

I'm looking forward to this week yanking people from warm to mid winter Monday to Saturday.

[weathafella]

The euro had the nor'easter too..

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The euro had the nor'easter too..

 

Next weekend still may break for the better and then beyond that you have to like the arctic plunge that's coming.  Whether it's more of a glancing blow or not is TBD, but with so many good things going on in the shorter to mid term...who cares about January and February.

Pretty sure I'd be willing to bet you that boston gets an " by x

 

Feeling pretty good still about the chances of wintry precip next weekend and around Thanksgiving.  Signal has been there for some time.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Next weekend still may break for the better and then beyond that you have to like the arctic plunge that's coming.  Whether it's more of a glancing blow or not is TBD, but with so many good things going on in the shorter to mid term...who cares about January and February.

Pretty sure I'd be willing to bet you that boston gets an " by x

lol...count me as someone who does. i like winter months. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

lol...count me as someone who does. i like winter months. 

 

Of course i care too, but the long range skill....look at the last couple of winters and this tropical season.  Long range predictions even with all the building data and correlations doesn't always pan out.

 

We've got an increasingly favorable pattern incoming.  It's not textbook which I think is throwing a lot of guys off, but it's good.  Anomolaus for sure...you and I have already had snow and there's likely to be a few more bites of the apple between now and the end of the month.  Whether they play out...?

 

Caution be damned, cold air is coming in multiple onslaughts to varying degrees through the end of this month and with each outbreak there comes the chance of wintry precip.   The snow guns will be blasting all week, ski areas are merry, ice was beginning to cover ponds in the backwoods up north...good times.

 

Next weekend could turn into a nice event, we'll see.  And I really do like the threat around the TDay holiday.  After that who knows?

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a stormy look on the GEFS. The NAO seems like it's not well agreed upon in the 11-15 day.  Pacific is pretty good I think, but a -NAO would assure us in case troughing decides to develop further west. 

[powderfreak]

Luckily its the CMC on a day 5-7 prog, but its got a torch next weekend until the boundary slides south on Sunday night.

 

Snowing in Mexico and raining in Montreal next weekend, lol.  If this is the case, a lot of forecast highs next Fri/Sat are far too low.

 

[weathafella]

Serious question. How do the NAEFS compare to the euro and GEFS and cmc ens alone? It seems that 40 ensemble members have the capacity to better smooth out extremes ala euro.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Of course i care too, but the long range skill....look at the last couple of winters and this tropical season.  Long range predictions even with all the building data and correlations doesn't always pan out.

 

We've got an increasingly favorable pattern incoming.  It's not textbook which I think is throwing a lot of guys off, but it's good.  Anomolaus for sure...you and I have already had snow and there's likely to be a few more bites of the apple between now and the end of the month.  Whether they play out...?

 

Caution be damned, cold air is coming in multiple onslaughts to varying degrees through the end of this month and with each outbreak there comes the chance of wintry precip.   The snow guns will be blasting all week, ski areas are merry, ice was beginning to cover ponds in the backwoods up north...good times.

 

Next weekend could turn into a nice event, we'll see.  And I really do like the threat around the TDay holiday.  After that who knows?

i don't really disagree...my only point the last few days has been: take today's gfs run, as good as it looks (and it looks good no doubt), the run ends 12/3. it's just still super early in the season.

 

it's not the same as seeing this kind of a model run around xmas. climo is still relatively warm (case in point, look at today) so after an anomalous air mass departs you aren't really left with "cold".

 

hopefully it goes "belly- to - belly" . 

[powderfreak]

Big differences between the GFS and CMC about the interaction with that SW energy later this week.  GFS cuts it off and keeps it seperate from the northern stream, allowing that to dig full bore into the Great Lakes and northeast.  The CMC sort of phases the energy together creating a large western/central trough with eastern ridging.  I'd put money on the GFS over Canadian any day though.

[CoastalWx]

Serious question. How do the NAEFS compare to the euro and GEFS and cmc ens alone? It seems that 40 ensemble members have the capacity to better smooth out extremes ala euro.

 

Well NAEFS blend the GEFS and Canadian ensembles I believe. If one suite is screwy, it may not give a proper solution. I usually look at all three separately and figure out how they match up.

[CoastalWx]

Big differences between the GFS and CMC about the interaction with that SW energy later this week.  GFS cuts it off and keeps it seperate from the northern stream, allowing that to dig full bore into the Great Lakes and northeast.  The CMC sort of phases the energy together creating a large western/central trough with eastern ridging.

 

Next weekend could still be a bonafide fropa with little fan fare. Not really excited.

[weathafella]

Big differences between the GFS and CMC about the interaction with that SW energy later this week.  GFS cuts it off and keeps it seperate from the northern stream, allowing that to dig full bore into the Great Lakes and northeast.  The CMC sort of phases the energy together creating a large western/central trough with eastern ridging.  I'd put money on the GFS over Canadian any day though.

To me the big difference is the cmc gives more of a glancing blow into the USA with the modeled cold and as such any s/w in the stream rides the boundary which is much further north.

[powderfreak]

Next weekend could still be a bonafide fropa with little fan fare. Not really excited.

 

Yeah, but regardless of snow chances or precip, the potential temperature bust is huge next weekend on the 12z GFS/CMC.  I hope the ECM will shed some light on the situation.  But the GFS has snow guns running full throttle up here on Saturday, while the CMC is like 50 degrees.  There's like a 20F difference in temps on Saturday between the two.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, but regardless of snow chances or precip, the potential temperature bust is huge next weekend on the 12z GFS/CMC.  I hope the ECM will shed some light on the situation.  But the GFS has snow guns running full throttle up here on Saturday, while the CMC is like 50 degrees.  There's like a 20F difference in temps on Saturday between the two.

 

Canadian model isn't the best as we know. My guess is some sort of a SWFE favoring NNE with something mixed, but that's a preliminary wild azz guess.

[powderfreak]

To me the big difference is the cmc gives more of a glancing blow into the USA with the modeled cold and as such any s/w in the stream rides the boundary which is much further north.

 

Yeah that could be it too... its just the 500mb differences at day 5-6 are pretty huge.  Again, I'd take the GFS over CMC any day.  Hopefully the ECM goes more towards the GFS with this weekend.

 

GFS on the left, CMC at the right.  Both valid at H+138.  CMC is a lot slower with the northern energy, and phases it together with the SW energy... the GFS keeps it completely separate. 

 

[weathafella]

Yeah that could be it too... its just the 500mb differences at day 5-6 are pretty huge.  Again, I'd take the GFS over CMC any day.  Hopefully the ECM goes more towards the GFS with this weekend.

 

GFS on the left, CMC at the right.  Both valid at H+138.  CMC is a lot slower with the northern energy, and phases it together with the SW energy... the GFS keeps it completely separate. 

 

GFSCMC.jpg

Well you know the euro will keep them separate given their bias of doing that for any excuse.

[powderfreak]

Well you know the euro will keep them separate given their bias of doing that for any excuse.

 

Very good point.

[jamesnichols1989]

If this were a EL Nino winter season, I would go with the GGEM, as it clearly has slower northern vort energy allowing it to phase with the southern vort energy, however since this is a rather neutral ENSO winter season, chances are southern and northern vort energies are likely to be more progressive in nature, allowing such a 12z GFS solution to be more true than the GGEM solution.  Just an observation of past weather events and modeled events.