Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 What can we attribute this great turn to deep winter on the ens the last few days? Is it more Pacific driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 What can we attribute this great turn to deep winter on the ens the last few days? Is it more Pacific driven? well it's pretty favorable when ridging bridges from the pacific all the way to greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 But are the Nao and AO negative? Or is it more epo driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 awesome thanks!!! ineedsnow, this is Ray (famartin) Winter Storm Archive for NJ. Shows all winter snow/ice events from 93. Some of the older dates have those TWC maps if you want to get a little nostalgic. : http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Day 10 EURO would likely lead to a monster storm. As 'Wow" pointed out in the SE thread, you can see all 3 streams coming together at 240 hrs...Lala land so it doesn't matter, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I have the same concern as Phil. Is it too early? Then again maybe belly to belly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Nao is neg on the ensembles I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 But are the Nao and AO negative? Or is it more epo driven? aren't you at a GTG with Will? he could tell you i'm sure. the pacific initially leads the way as heights rise substantially out west and across the GOA and right through Alaska. that gives the initial plunge of cold. but by day 10...the euro ens mean has an east based -nao...but you actually have ridging right across the pole essentially. thing is, initially...like scooter and i were talking about this morning...i feel like the wavelengths are still screwy so it doesn't look like something that's "locked" in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I have the same concern as Phil. Is it too early? Then again maybe belly to belly! hopefully it is belly to belly. certainly off to a fair start. i just wish we were about 2 weeks later than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 aren't you at a GTG with Will? he could tell you i'm sure. the pacific initially leads the way as heights rise substantially out west and across the GOA and right through Alaska. that gives the initial plunge of cold. but by day 10...the euro ens mean has an east based -nao...but you actually have ridging right across the pole essentially. thing is, initially...like scooter and i were talking about this morning...i feel like the wavelengths are still screwy so it doesn't look like something that's "locked" in stone. No . Scooter Willie and I left by 6:00. Home by 6:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 There is actually a bit of a rex block showing up in the Euro ensembles for day 10 over the northeast Atlantic. I wonder if that may help prolong the negative height anomalies over the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Everyone is home from gtg cept Diane wiz garth h2o and ray Do we have decent confidence the hounds are really on the way, seem'd up in the air yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 hopefully it is belly to belly. certainly off to a fair start. i just wish we were about 2 weeks later than we are. It's a little scary but then again I thought the same in some pretty epic winters, always afraid the worm would turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The end of the euro ensembles are still a little screwy looking. Well maybe not screwy, but a little uncommon? It features still a ridge over AK albeit not terribly strong and a screaming PAC that encounters a ridge out west and splits with a trough over srn Rockies and ridging to the NW over nrn Rockies and into western Canada. There looks like a tendency to develop a weak SE ridge. There also is a David Straits trough but also a ridge punching into Greenland from the east. Certainly has the potential to be fun, but it's a look that probably could and will change in terms of details. Ridge Bridge!! But yeah it's an odd look. I do like that both the GEFS and Euro Ens are pretty gung ho on -EPO D8-D15. That's a good thing. How the North Atlantic shakes out I think is going to be a big wild card in determining just how cold/stormy we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Ridge Bridge!! But yeah it's an odd look. I do like that both the GEFS and Euro Ens are pretty gung ho on -EPO D8-D15. That's a good thing. How the North Atlantic shakes out I think is going to be a big wild card in determining just how cold/stormy we get. Phew, you saved my post.....I just yelled at myself for accidentally deleting it lol. Yeah, I agree about the EPO. The Atlantic is probably going to need to help out if indeed we see a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Phew, you saved my post.....I just yelled at myself for accidentally deleting it lol. Yeah, I agree about the EPO. The Atlantic is probably going to need to help out if indeed we see a SE ridge. Agreed. I think odds are pretty good we get a "below normal" pattern. Whether it's a full on Arctic assault that the ridge bridge dislodges or if it's a bit more touch and go with SE Ridge flexing a bit I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 well its easy for me to go for it I have no reputation to uphold and I can dabble in the controversial without worry but thanks. Instead of doing a whole winter LR forecast this year I decided to break it up in 6 week pieces using a combo of conventional and not so conventional methods. This is what I put out there Oct 17th These forecasts are only for fun and experimental, don't kill me if I bust horribly. also these roughly represent my back yard with some region wide stuff thrown in WEEK 1 Ending 11/1/13 Much below normal for the week with temperatures -3 to-5 BN region wide, potential for minor precip events with possible Mtn, elevated snow, upslope snow and LES 1.gif WEEK 2 Ending 11/8/13 A continuation of somewhat below normal temps -1 to-3 region wide with the potential for a cutter and a widespread rain event, possible redeveloping as a Miller B allowing for far interior snow 2.gif WEEK 3 Ending 11/15/13 a return to a colder regime with temps -3-5 below normal, a potential wet event prior to the cold outbreak, this again could be a cutter with possible a follow up coastal bringing a more region wide elevated snow to the Berks , Greens, Whites 3.gif Week 4 Ending 11/22/13 A change to a warmer week with region wide warmth, pretty dry with warm frontal showers Temps +3 to +7 4.gif Week 5 Ending 11/29/13 A massive shift in temps with some very cold air finishing out the month, possible heavy snow almost to the coast with interior areas getting the most. Temps -4 to -6 5.gif Week 6 Ending 12/6/13 Possible record cold with a region wide blanket of snow, maybe heavy , Miller B type with a clipper thrown in. temps- 5 to -7 6.gif Has a chance at being a pretty good last two weeks of the six, hopefully when I do the next six It continues the final two weeks pattern although and early look suggests Mid Dec warm up. Maybe a return just in time for Christmas? Will post the entire package 12/5 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Good stuff Ginxy. I jus hope the cold look holds on ensembles next 48-72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Phew, you saved my post.....I just yelled at myself for accidentally deleting it lol. Yeah, I agree about the EPO. The Atlantic is probably going to need to help out if indeed we see a SE ridge. But wouldn't the trough over hudson bay sort of act like a block and shove systems south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT going belly to belly, wow http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/WINTER13-14short.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 0z NAM is very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Okay to get pretty excited here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT going belly to belly, wowhttp://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/WINTER13-14short.ppt Nice link ginxy. Seems like he is hedging normal to slightly above into early- January , thou he says it could be cooler, then bottom drops out. I found it interesting that he assumes the QBO which has fallen last two months will "automatically" continue to fall 4 more points to the "blocking and stormy range, or at least that is how it sounded. I mean what logic do we have that a QBO that falls from 16 to 12 from sept to November will not RISE a bit in Dec or Jan? (Serious question/ trying to learn) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cold and dry for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Nice link ginxy. Seems like he is hedging normal to slightly above into early- January , thou he says it could be cooler, then bottom drops out. I found it interesting that he assumes the QBO which has fallen last two months will "automatically" continue to fall 4 more points to the "blocking and stormy range, or at least that is how it sounded. I mean what logic do we have that a QBO that falls from 16 to 12 from sept to November will not RISE a bit in Dec or Jan? (Serious question/ trying to learn) Once the QBO starts rising or falling, it usually continues to do so. It might not do so at a steady rate, but it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Pretty sweet looking pattern on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Pretty sweet looking pattern on the ensembles. Just close your eyes and draw the shades today and tomorrow. After that it's the beginning of our run to the promised land. Hopefully next weekends snow pans out Hopefully it does, but I'm more intrigued by the pattern than that specific event. I'm not sure if we'll be running into sustained cold or some continued fluctuations. If we can time/space things right, there could certainly be some wintry events. Odds will always favor GC at this time of year, but 'on any given Sunday......'. FWIW--if I avoid looking at the ground, the fog in this light makes it look like a steady moderate snow. If only. 39.1/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Pretty sweet looking pattern on the ensembles. Nice to see some consistency there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Nice to see some consistency there. Yeah some difference near AK, but a pretty good look between the EC,GEFS, and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If you took EURO verbatim, I think it would lead to a snowstorm for NE on turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 But wouldn't the trough over hudson bay sort of act like a block and shove systems south? Just the opposite I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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