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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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awesome thanks!!!  :thumbsup:

ineedsnow, this is Ray (famartin) Winter Storm Archive for NJ. Shows all winter snow/ice events from 93. Some of the older dates have those TWC maps if you want to get a little nostalgic. :

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

 

Day 10 EURO would likely lead to a monster storm. As 'Wow" pointed out in the SE thread, you can see all 3 streams coming together at 240 hrs...Lala land so it doesn't matter, but fun to look at. 

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But are the Nao and AO negative? Or is it more epo driven?

aren't you at a GTG with Will? he could tell you i'm sure. :lol:

 

the pacific initially leads the way as heights rise substantially out west and across the GOA and right through Alaska. that gives the initial plunge of cold. but by day 10...the euro ens mean has an east based -nao...but you actually have ridging right across the pole essentially. 

 

thing is, initially...like scooter and i were talking about this morning...i feel like the wavelengths are still screwy so it doesn't look like something that's "locked" in stone. 

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aren't you at a GTG with Will? he could tell you i'm sure. :lol:

the pacific initially leads the way as heights rise substantially out west and across the GOA and right through Alaska. that gives the initial plunge of cold. but by day 10...the euro ens mean has an east based -nao...but you actually have ridging right across the pole essentially.

thing is, initially...like scooter and i were talking about this morning...i feel like the wavelengths are still screwy so it doesn't look like something that's "locked" in stone.

No . Scooter Willie and I left by 6:00. Home by 6:50
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The end of the euro ensembles are still a little screwy looking. Well maybe not screwy, but a little uncommon? It features still a ridge over AK albeit not terribly strong and a screaming PAC that encounters a ridge out west and splits with a trough over srn Rockies and ridging to the NW over nrn Rockies and into western Canada. There looks like a tendency to develop a weak SE ridge. There also is a David Straits trough but also a ridge punching into Greenland from the east. Certainly has the potential to be fun, but it's a look that probably could and will change in terms of details.

 

Ridge Bridge!!

 

But yeah it's an odd look. I do like that both the GEFS and Euro Ens are pretty gung ho on -EPO D8-D15. That's a  good thing.

 

How the North Atlantic shakes out I think is going to be a big wild card in determining just how cold/stormy we get. 

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Ridge Bridge!!

But yeah it's an odd look. I do like that both the GEFS and Euro Ens are pretty gung ho on -EPO D8-D15. That's a good thing.

How the North Atlantic shakes out I think is going to be a big wild card in determining just how cold/stormy we get.

Phew, you saved my post.....I just yelled at myself

for accidentally deleting it lol.

Yeah, I agree about the EPO. The Atlantic is probably going to need to help out if indeed we see a SE ridge.

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Phew, you saved my post.....I just yelled at myself

for accidentally deleting it lol.

Yeah, I agree about the EPO. The Atlantic is probably going to need to help out if indeed we see a SE ridge.

 

Agreed. I think odds are pretty good we get a "below normal" pattern. Whether it's a full on Arctic assault that the ridge bridge dislodges or if it's a bit more touch and go with SE Ridge flexing a bit I'm not sure. 

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well its easy for me to go for it I have no reputation to uphold and I can dabble in the controversial without worry but thanks. Instead of doing a whole winter LR forecast this year I decided to break it up in 6 week pieces using a combo of conventional and not so conventional methods. This is what I put out there Oct 17th

These forecasts are only for fun and experimental, don't kill me if I bust horribly. also these roughly represent my back yard with some region wide stuff thrown in

WEEK 1

Ending 11/1/13

Much below normal for the week with temperatures -3 to-5 BN region wide, potential for minor precip events with possible Mtn, elevated snow, upslope snow and LES

attachicon.gif1.gif

WEEK 2

Ending 11/8/13

A continuation of somewhat below normal temps -1 to-3 region wide with the potential for a cutter and a widespread rain event, possible redeveloping as a Miller B allowing for far interior snow

attachicon.gif2.gif

WEEK 3

Ending 11/15/13

a return to a colder regime with temps -3-5 below normal, a potential wet event prior to the cold outbreak, this again could be a cutter with possible a follow up coastal bringing a more region wide elevated snow to the Berks , Greens, Whites

attachicon.gif3.gif

Week 4

Ending 11/22/13

A change to a warmer week with region wide warmth, pretty dry with warm frontal showers Temps +3 to +7

attachicon.gif4.gif

Week 5

Ending 11/29/13

A massive shift in temps with some very cold air finishing out the month, possible heavy snow almost to the coast with interior areas getting the most. Temps -4 to -6

attachicon.gif5.gif

Week 6

Ending 12/6/13

Possible record cold with a region wide blanket of snow, maybe heavy , Miller B type with a clipper thrown in. temps- 5 to -7

attachicon.gif6.gif

Has a chance at being a pretty good last two weeks of the six, hopefully when I do the next six It continues the final two weeks pattern although and early look suggests Mid Dec warm up. Maybe a return just in time for Christmas? Will post the entire package 12/5 ish
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Nice link ginxy. Seems like he is hedging normal to slightly above into early- January , thou he says it could be cooler, then bottom drops out. I found it interesting that he assumes the QBO which has fallen last two months will "automatically" continue to fall 4 more points to the "blocking and stormy range, or at least that is how it sounded. I mean what logic do we have that a QBO that falls from 16 to 12 from sept to November will not RISE a bit in Dec or Jan? (Serious question/ trying to learn)

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Nice link ginxy. Seems like he is hedging normal to slightly above into early- January , thou he says it could be cooler, then bottom drops out. I found it interesting that he assumes the QBO which has fallen last two months will "automatically" continue to fall 4 more points to the "blocking and stormy range, or at least that is how it sounded. I mean what logic do we have that a QBO that falls from 16 to 12 from sept to November will not RISE a bit in Dec or Jan? (Serious question/ trying to learn)

 

Once the QBO starts rising or falling, it usually continues to do so. It might not do so at a steady rate, but it will.

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Pretty sweet looking pattern on the ensembles.

 

 

Just close your eyes and draw the shades today and tomorrow. After that it's the beginning of our run to the promised land. Hopefully next weekends snow pans out

 

Hopefully it does, but I'm more intrigued by the pattern than that specific event.  I'm not sure if we'll be running into sustained cold or some continued fluctuations.   If we can time/space things right, there could certainly be some wintry events.  Odds will always favor GC at this time of year, but 'on any given Sunday......'.

 

FWIW--if I avoid looking at the ground, the fog in this light makes it look like a steady moderate snow.  If only.

 

39.1/38

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