Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 The latest analogs based on the 0z Euro ensemble mean day 10 forecast suggest some ridging over the Pacific northwest and some ridging over the north Atlantic extending towards Greenland. The composite mean of the analogs shown here is similar to the 500 hPa height field forecast by the ensemble mean. ecmAnalog240.png The composite 850 hPa temperature anomaly map of the top analogs shows some below average departures centered over the northeast. compday.q2WySvaDYN.gif nice thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 38F with moderate snow showers still going on. Big-azz wet flakes. Has actually become darker outside in the past 15 mins. Sanders and plows are out too - lol. put this in the Arctic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 put this in the Arctic thread. lol! Nice pics at Kevin's place this a.m. First legit snow for him this year. Edit:Thought you were joking. I deleted photos from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I think all eyes now will turn to the tropical Pacific as we have some warmer water west of the dateline. It's possible the MJO may try to head east and the warmer waters facilitate the process which will help with EPO/PNA ridging. I still see some disagreement with these forecasts which is to be expected. The weeklies are coupled with the ocean so it's possible they are seeing this as well. The new ones were a change from last Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I think all eyes now will turn to the tropical Pacific as we have some warmer water west of the dateline. It's possible the MJO may try to head east and the warmer waters facilitate the process which will help with EPO/PNA ridging. I still see some disagreement with these forecasts which is to be expected. The weeklies are coupled with the ocean so it's possible they are seeing this as well. The new ones were a change from last Thursday. Do you think those warmer waters will help keep the forcing in place for awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Do you think those warmer waters will help keep the forcing in place for awhile? Honestly I couldn't say. It helps, but there are also other factors. You have to look at things like 850mb convergence and divergence aloft which has been favoring Indonesia for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Honestly I couldn't say. It helps, but there are also other factors. You have to look at things like 850mb convergence and divergence aloft which has been favoring Indonesia for a while. Do you know what this could mean for our pattern here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Do you know what this could mean for our pattern here? If it's stuck in Indo and points west it sometimes means more of a -PNA and SE ridge..especially later in Dec. If it moves east of Indonesia, it helps force more PNA ridging. The intensity is important too. If the wave is not strong, then you are at the mercy of smaller nuances driving the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Euro ensembles definitely look pretty nice in the LR...before that though, we should see some pretty mild wx. The 7 day period from 11/15-11/21 should be some solid positive departures. Then hopefully we can get back into a more wintry pattern the week of Thanksgiving, but I'm always a bit leery of the pattern change being rushed. It might start off better for the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Ccccchanges,timing on schedule for phase change, nice looking Teleconnector indices forecast across the realm. Hopefully we reap the rewards end of Nov first of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 LOL at the GFS op and that -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I really like how everything is coming together the week of the 25th and beyond. It could be a legit cold and stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 LOL at the GFS op and that -NAO. lol - haven't looked at a D10+ op model in a long time but that was worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Can't say I'm surprised at the developments. You'll be bowing toe by winters end this year...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Can't quote on this laptop but I'm with you weathafella. No way anyone can say how good it'll be but I see a much better winter than previous duds. Some warmer periods, probably a legit January thaw this year, good snow totals with some nice old school 3-6 and 4-8 type events vs blockbuster or bust of the last few years. Late November everything changes. Great winter for ski areas that make a ton of snow (Sunday River is buttering up south ridge right now) etc. Just a fun winter sports season incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Strong fropa next Wed/ Thurs? Tuesday looks like near 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Strong fropa next Wed/ Thurs? Tuesday looks like near 60 High dews and shorts, then euro becomes a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 High dews and shorts, then euro becomes a cold rain. Looks like the core of the cold stays north and west? Could be a glancing shot followed by another warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Looks like the core of the cold stays north and west? Could be a glancing shot followed by another warmup. We get a cold shot and then looks like some sort of a warm up before perhaps the real changes try to come near T-Day perhaps? Seems like something is in the cards around that time. I noticed too that the models do try to put out some NAO ridging into Greenland shirtly after day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 EURO blasts us with a cold shot on the 22nd on the day 9-10 range. Some nice PNA ridging on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Wow, Euro ensembles are throwing down the hammer D12 and beyond...Canada goes frigid and the plains/lakes too. -EPO FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah I should have posted about it here. The doors open into the US at the end of the run. Hope it's close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 LOL at the GFS op and that -NAO. Seeing as we are only musing the product... That's actually not even a -NAO. The NAO domain space terminates at 70W, and that ridge node appears to align around or even W of 80! Kind of weird. Otherwise ... not that anyone asked but I am a bit more impressed with the AO progs today, than I was up through yesterday. The problem I had with the collapse of the current positive regime (which is impressive, nearing +4SD in three days!) as it was suggested by the (at least) GFS ensemble members up through yesterday was that there was a large amount of spread. Usually when there is a lot of spread, you gotta wait it out until either some coherence evolves (meaning, parallel members), else a different reality (such as continued status quo) yanks the members back positive again. However, the former seems to be occurring here. At least through D10, we have a lot of members on the same linear trajectory: Down, at the same slope and similar values day-to-day. About 10 days from now ... some spread does re-enter the picture, but it is 1) not as much, and 2) most members are actually indicated a weakly negative phase state by the end of the 2nd week. That brings us into t-day period. The other thing I have noticed through the last 3 weeks we've had 3 warm roll-outs during that period, that were originally progged to last 3 days, but wound up being comparatively brief. It seems the EPO is the reason... Like, did it strike anyone as interesting that the AO is almost +4SD and we have this cold air? Granted, it won't last long.. Btw, that's an impressive two-day sensible turn around. Could be 60+ with wafting SW breeze on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Todays 12z OP GFS showed a similar pattern with a really nice block as well. It's in lala land for an OP, but cool to see it resemble the EURO ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Wow, Euro ensembles are throwing down the hammer D12 and beyond...Canada goes frigid and the plains/lakes too. -EPO FTW.Right outta Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 This turnaround back to positive above normal values for temperatures is quite impressive, someone could be hitting 65-70F by Friday and Saturday in the southwestern regions of New England as favored by southwesterly winds. This will be a case where SSTs favor a cooler coastline by comparison to inland locations away from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 This turnaround back to positive above normal values for temperatures is quite impressive, someone could be hitting 65-70F by Friday and Saturday in the southwestern regions of New England as favored by southwesterly winds. This will be a case where SSTs favor a cooler coastline by comparison to inland locations away from the ocean. Noone is hitting those temps with inversion and no mixing. The warmest day will be next Tuesday/Wed ahead of cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Wow, Euro ensembles are throwing down the hammer D12 and beyond...Canada goes frigid and the plains/lakes too. -EPO FTW. looks like atlantic ridging prevents much of it from moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Nobody is reaching 70F this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Noone is hitting those temps with inversion and no mixing. The warmest day will be next Tuesday/Wed ahead of cold front 60F could def happen in the torch spots on Friday or Saturday. I agree 70F isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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