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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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The latest analogs based on the 0z Euro ensemble mean day 10 forecast suggest some ridging over the Pacific northwest and some ridging over the north Atlantic extending towards Greenland. The composite mean of the analogs shown here is similar to the 500 hPa height field forecast by the ensemble mean.

ecmAnalog240.png

The composite 850 hPa temperature anomaly map of the top analogs shows some below average departures centered over the northeast.

compday.q2WySvaDYN.gif

nice thanks
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I think all eyes now will turn to the tropical Pacific as we have some warmer water west of the dateline. It's possible the MJO may try to head east and the warmer waters facilitate the process which will help with EPO/PNA ridging. I still see some disagreement with these forecasts which is to be expected. The weeklies are coupled with the ocean so it's possible they are seeing this as well. The new ones were a change from last Thursday.

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I think all eyes now will turn to the tropical Pacific as we have some warmer water west of the dateline. It's possible the MJO may try to head east and the warmer waters facilitate the process which will help with EPO/PNA ridging. I still see some disagreement with these forecasts which is to be expected. The weeklies are coupled with the ocean so it's possible they are seeing this as well. The new ones were a change from last Thursday.

Do you think those warmer waters will help keep the forcing in place for awhile?

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Do you know what this could mean for our pattern here?

 

If it's stuck in Indo and points west it sometimes means more of a -PNA and SE ridge..especially later in Dec.  If it moves east of Indonesia, it helps force more PNA ridging. The intensity is important too. If the wave is not strong, then you are at the mercy of smaller nuances driving the pattern. 

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Euro ensembles definitely look pretty nice in the LR...before that though, we should see some pretty mild wx. The 7 day period from 11/15-11/21 should be some solid positive departures.

 

Then hopefully we can get back into a more wintry pattern the week of Thanksgiving, but I'm always a bit leery of the pattern change being rushed. It might start off better for the plains.

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Can't quote on this laptop but I'm with you weathafella.  No way anyone can say how good it'll be but I see a much better winter than previous duds.   Some warmer periods, probably a legit January thaw this year, good snow totals with some nice old school 3-6 and 4-8 type events vs blockbuster or bust of the last few years.

 

Late November everything changes.  Great winter for ski areas that make a ton of snow (Sunday River is buttering up south ridge right now) etc.  Just a fun winter sports season incoming!

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Looks like the core of the cold stays north and west? Could be a glancing shot followed by another warmup.

 

We get a cold shot and then looks like some sort of a warm up before perhaps the real changes try to come near T-Day perhaps? Seems like something is in the cards around that time. I noticed too that the models do try to put out some NAO ridging into Greenland shirtly after day 8-9.

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LOL at the GFS op and that -NAO. 

 

Seeing as we are only musing the product... 

 

That's actually not even a -NAO.  The NAO domain space terminates at 70W, and that ridge node appears to align around or even W of 80!  Kind of weird.

 

Otherwise ... not that anyone asked but I am a bit more impressed with the AO progs today, than I was up through yesterday.  

 

The problem I had with the collapse of the current positive regime (which is impressive, nearing +4SD in three days!) as it was suggested by the (at least) GFS ensemble members up through yesterday was that there was a large amount of spread. Usually when there is a lot of spread, you gotta wait it out until either some coherence evolves (meaning, parallel members), else a different reality (such as continued status quo) yanks the members back positive again.  However, the former seems to be occurring here. At least through D10, we have a lot of members on the same linear trajectory:  Down, at the same slope and similar values day-to-day.   About 10 days from now ... some spread does re-enter the picture, but it is 1) not as much, and 2) most members are actually indicated a weakly negative phase state by the end of the 2nd week.  That brings us into t-day period.

 

The other thing I have noticed through the last 3 weeks we've had 3 warm roll-outs during that period, that were originally progged to last 3 days, but wound up being comparatively brief.  It seems the EPO is the reason... Like, did it strike anyone as interesting that the AO is almost +4SD and we have this cold air?  Granted, it won't last long..

 

Btw, that's an impressive two-day sensible turn around.  Could be 60+ with wafting SW breeze on Friday. 

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This turnaround back to positive above normal values for temperatures is quite impressive, someone could be hitting 65-70F by Friday and Saturday in the southwestern regions of New England as favored by southwesterly winds.  This will be a case where SSTs favor a cooler coastline by comparison to inland locations away from the ocean.

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This turnaround back to positive above normal values for temperatures is quite impressive, someone could be hitting 65-70F by Friday and Saturday in the southwestern regions of New England as favored by southwesterly winds.  This will be a case where SSTs favor a cooler coastline by comparison to inland locations away from the ocean.

Noone is hitting those temps with inversion and no mixing. The warmest day will be next Tuesday/Wed ahead of cold front

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