November weather dicsussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

We're due

[CT Rain]

I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward?

And this is why you're a bad poster.

Focusing only on positive and hyping up extremes is just silly. It doesn't do anyone any good.

[CT Rain]

Its interesting how Nov 28-Dec 4 is a really weak period for big snowfall climatologically in SNE...we've had big snowstorms between Nov 22-27 and then of course Dec 5th and onward...but that one week in there is really paltry. Probably a fluke...maybe this is the year we can get something substantial.

If we can tap into the EPO pattern with good efficiency, then we'd have a shot. Kind of like what a few of those OP GFS runs do post-T-Day.

Yeah I think there's a decent shot at getting something wintry in here if the pieces fall in place. Hopefully be can finally get something exciting in here,

[Damage In Tolland]

And this is why you're a bad poster.

Focusing only on positive and hyping up extremes is just silly. It doesn't do anyone any good.

Why would a mod call anyone a bad poster ? Should you be doing that in your role? why name call and try to belittle and hurt?Who is hyping? We are just asking for good as well as not so good

[powderfreak]

We are just asking for good as well as not so good

The mets on here have always done this. Good and not so good. They are very level headed and get excited when it's warranted. Do we really want to go to just cold/snow cheerleading? I'd rather hear their honest opinions.

[Damage In Tolland]

The mets on here have always done this. Good and not so good. They are very level headed and get excited when it's warranted. Do we really want to go to just cold/snow cheerleading? I'd rather hear their honest opinions.

How many different ways do we have to say this? No we don't want that. We want equal positive and not so good ideas .

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think... Maybe... He is looking for what ingredients should he look for in the semi long range that would indicate a cold/snowy regime

Maybe

[powderfreak]

How many different ways do we have to say this? No we don't want that. We want equal positive and not so good ideas .

And that's what they've been doing. I've seen posts from Will, Coastal, Ryan, and Tropo in the past day mentioning both positives and negatives. Read back just a page or so when the 12z ECM and ensembles came out...most of that was positive.

[CT Rain]

Why would a mod call anyone a bad poster ? Should you be doing that in your role? why name call and try to belittle and hurt?Who is hyping? We are just asking for good as well as not so good

 

I have no problem calling you a bad poster if you post (in a discussion thread, mind you) about being upset people are being objective and talking about cons in addition to pros. The discussion has been pretty good IMO I'm not sure what you expect. 

[weathafella]

OT but my druthers would be for real cold and snow not to lock in until later in December. If it locks in 11/22, at best it breaks a few days after new year. 12/17-2/10 sounds much more appealing to me.

[N. OF PIKE]

OT but my druthers would be for real cold and snow not to lock in until later in December. If it locks in 11/22, at best it breaks a few days after new year. 12/17-2/10 sounds much more appealing to me.

Well in Bos area i wonder how often (percentage wise) winter "locks" in , it did in 2010-2011 but i mean that is a top ten season that still had a New Years thaw , stunk after mid February, and didnt snow more than couple inches till Boxing Day. Yes a 6 week epic period but my point is every winter has a substantial period of crap near the coastal plain, maybe 2004-2005 is exception (or whatever year se mass had like 110 or so inches)

[weathafella]

Well in Bos area i wonder how often (percentage wise) winter "locks" in , it did in 2010-2011 but i mean that is a top ten season that still had a New Years thaw , stunk after mid February, and didnt snow more than couple inches till Boxing Day. Yes a 6 week epic period but my point is every winter has a substantial period of crap near the coastal plain, maybe 2004-2005 is exception (or whatever year se mass had like 110 or so inches)

1993-94 had non stop late December though mid march save for a few days in February. Believe me when there's a thaw in Boston, it's usually in a relative sense everywhere. If the only criteria is snow, no where in New England carries a candle to the tug, Quebec, the sierras, the cascades, Valdez, parts of japan.

[Ginx snewx]

1993-94 had non stop late December though mid march save for a few days in February. Believe me when there's a thaw in Boston, it's usually in a relative sense everywhere. If the only criteria is snow, no where in New England carries a candle to the tug, Quebec, the sierras, the cascades, Valdez, parts of japan.

I have always been fascinated by the somewhat statistically proven third week of Jan thaw. I wonder what process makes this a pretty regular occurring event in North America. Written and oral histories mention it often. http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201001_January_Thaw.pdf

[Typhoon Tip]

Its interesting how Nov 28-Dec 4 is a really weak period for big snowfall climatologically in SNE...we've had big snowstorms between Nov 22-27 and then of course Dec 5th and onward...but that one week in there is really paltry. Probably a fluke...maybe this is the year we can get something substantial.

 

If we can tap into the EPO pattern with good efficiency, then we'd have a shot. Kind of like what a few of those OP GFS runs do post-T-Day.

 

Reminds me of watching the pavement when the rain first starts, and you might notice that some blotches get pounded repeatedly with new drops, while other dry blotches seem to get missed.  That period of time you mentioned is a dry blotch in time.  Like with the rain analogy, if you turn your attention away, and then look back, eventually ... the whole of the pavement is soaked.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I have always been fascinated by the statistically proven third week of Jan thaw. I wonder what process makes this a pretty regular occurring event in North America. Written and oral histories mention it often.

 

Winter, all told for SNE (though it varies some from SW CT to SE NH of course ...) is 90 days in length.   We argue March is a winter month, and I tend to agree, but this argument doesn't bear any on the average pattern residence.  

 

It's hard to get a pattern to last longer than 45 days.   45 days from the typical onset of meaningful winter is right around that thaw climo.

[Ginx snewx]

Winter, all told for SNE (though it varies some from SW CT to SE NH of course ...) is 90 days in length.   We argue March is a winter month, and I tend to agree, but this argument doesn't bear any on the average pattern residence.  

 

It's hard to get a pattern to last longer than 45 days.   45 days from the typical onset of meaningful winter is right around that thaw climo.

I linked the study by Blue hill which I forgot to add originally ,http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201001_January_Thaw.pdf. Perhaps a more anecdotal record but there are some statistical anamolies that stand out centered around the 23 rd. obviously does not occur every year but pretty interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

All available guidance although varying in details and timing is now on board for a phase change. Hinted at at the end of of October by regression of the pattern and some modular outlooks it appears now to be in the cards. Broadening the available data and use of some deductive reasoning helped sniff this out early. Some initial skepticism from many sectors has now become some pretty enthusiastic agreement. Now that's a positive thought.

[powderfreak]

Winter, all told for SNE (though it varies some from SW CT to SE NH of course ...) is 90 days in length. We argue March is a winter month, and I tend to agree, but this argument doesn't bear any on the average pattern residence.

It's hard to get a pattern to last longer than 45 days. 45 days from the typical onset of meaningful winter is right around that thaw climo.

It's funny you say 45 days because I've always thought about 6 weeks is about as long as you can hold a pattern, lol. It's like established patterns move in 4-6 week cycles on average.

[Ginx snewx]

It's funny you say 45 days because I've always thought about 6 weeks is about as long as you can hold a pattern, lol. It's like established patterns move in 4-6 week cycles on average.

How do you define pattern?

[powderfreak]

Looks like a widespread 0.5"+ precip event coming for New England. Sounds like its much needed down south. Up here we are at around 3" so far for the month of NOV, so it's actually been a little wetter than normal.

[weathafella]

I don't give a fuk about upslope. But I love Powderfreak. That is all.

[powderfreak]

How do you define pattern?

I look at it as storm track, jet stream locations, overall look...I dunno, you just sort of know it when you see it, lol. Take this summer and the humidity part...we went from cold/very wet for 4-6 weeks from the second half of May till the end of June. Then it switched to the "most humid period of our lives" from later June into early August, then it switched again in early August back to colder than normal in the means. It just seems hard for a pattern to establish itself and hold on for much more than 6 weeks.

[powderfreak]

I don't give a fuk about upslope. But I love Powderfreak. That is all.

That might be the most random post of the evening...

[HoarfrostHubb]

That might be the most random post of the evening...

Vino flowing

34.3F/23

[weathafella]

Vino flowing

34.3F/23

Ironically not a drop. Maybe after walking the dog.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ironically not a drop. Maybe after walking the dog.

Bright moon tonight. Coyotes yipping

[Typhoon Tip]

I look at it as storm track, jet stream locations, overall look...I dunno, you just sort of know it when you see it, lol. Take this summer and the humidity part...we went from cold/very wet for 4-6 weeks from the second half of May till the end of June. Then it switched to the "most humid period of our lives" from later June into early August, then it switched again in early August back to colder than normal in the means. It just seems hard for a pattern to establish itself and hold on for much more than 6 weeks.

 

I don't know of any formal papers or even statistical studies that demo this, but it certainly "seems" true.  Steve brings up a good question; and it would be hard to really quantify a pattern.  I equally like your idea as an answer.  You get a feel that things are different.  Usually though, when a in situ pattern alters, there's an associated sensible change.  Not always, but most times..

 

The idea has been bandied about here and other places, agencies ..etc, for years.  It's really one of those axiomatic deals.   That said, ...yeah, take 1995-1996 as an ideal case study for that.  Big winter, almost 6 weeks to the dot, then a 10-day reprieve (or so...) before the another pattern rolled back.  I'm not even sure the return of cold/snow in Feb that year was "the same" pattern.  Good question for Will.

[eyewall]

It is definitely a little frustrating to see my snow chances in the valley vaporize for Tuesday, but Powder is still in business. This is a reflection of the GFS backing off, but I have no seen what the Euro etc. are showing.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Shouldn't the last x pages be in the banter thread?

[CoastalWx]

Well in Bos area i wonder how often (percentage wise) winter "locks" in , it did in 2010-2011 but i mean that is a top ten season that still had a New Years thaw , stunk after mid February, and didnt snow more than couple inches till Boxing Day. Yes a 6 week epic period but my point is every winter has a substantial period of crap near the coastal plain, maybe 2004-2005 is exception (or whatever year se mass had like 110 or so inches)

Do us all a favor and live on the Stowe Massif and stop bitching.