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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. 

 

GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. 

that doesn't seem to make much sense given the pattern. We'll see

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It is interesting, as we've been running verification on our new days 4-8 methodology we've noticed the Euro being one of the poorer performers on max/min temps in the last several weeks.

 

That's for all 2000+ forecast grids in our CWA.

 

Is it sloped?   We'd think that a D4 would be better than D8.   Also, the tendency for the Euro to over dig troughs aob D6's, I am wondering if majority of your error mass is around that time.  

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Holy wowzer!    This is probably one of the most extreme T/DP depressions I have ever seen in this area:

FIT

151952 CLR 10 62 6 2008 192

 

I'm wondering if that may be a bias in instrumentation because the other sites are around 12F for DP.  Still, this is some epic dryness out there.

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Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. 

 

GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. 

No they don't at least from what I was looking at.

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Nice +PNA - transient though?

 

 

Yeah it might be. Not sold on cold after T-day week or even for the end of Thanksgiving week. Looks like some uncertainty out in that range after the initial shot next weekend...it has us below average for T-day and beyond , but not by a lot and it looks like a an ambiguous signal.

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Yeah it might be. Not sold on cold after T-day week or even for the end of Thanksgiving week. Looks like some uncertainty out in that range after the initial shot next weekend...it has us below average for T-day and beyond , but not by a lot and it looks like a an ambiguous signal.

Of course they are. What else is new.
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I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward?

So don't be accurate and just go extreme?

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I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward?

it's not about looking for positives and negatives....it's being objective. 

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Wow, I was 21F at 6:30am.  You have some of the lowest daytime temps in the area and some of the highest nighttime!  Life at 1K.

 

I don't think I had anything low today with my temp--got up to 57.0!!

 

48.0/23 now

 

as is the euro (though pretty strong with the late week/weekend/la-la land shot).

 

fair amount of precip with the fropa though.

 

I'm happy to see the precip being modeled....even if it struggles to come through as robustly as depicted, it gives hope to a pattern change as we head deeper into the cooler seasons.

 

lol - I wasn't sure if you were annoyed by "Sultan of Shivers"

 

LOL

 

Just a bit of disagreement over the NAO domain..

 

attachicon.giftest8.gif

 

Man--just a little bit.  IS there a yin-yang symbol someplace?

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Wow, I was 21F at 6:30am.  You have some of the lowest daytime temps in the area and some of the highest nighttime!  Life at 1K.

 

 

I don't think I had anything low today with my temp--got up to 57.0!!

 

48.0/23 now

 

 

 

Oops--my bad.  I had the wrong station open--topped out at 51.0 at the Pit.  Still a toasty day, though.

 

47.7/23

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I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward?

 

Kevin I think people have posted 'good signs' about the extended, but perhaps tempering (pun intended) optimism as they should.  

 

The future is inherently uncertain, particular day 4, 5...7, 8...12 or Dec 1.  Once you get out there in time, you have to look at positives and negatives evenly, and without prejudice, lest one's opinions are of lower value.  Hell, even in nearer terms and now-casting one can get into trouble because of their own bias'. One should not always push/advertise what the want as being most likely.  Not that you are, just sayin'.

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I have another question.

 

When does the pattern turn wet? We keep hearing ens look stormy and then it ends up being a fropa like Monday with like .25 of rain..and some far Se place ends up with a bit more

 

 

They show potential for the 24th (the same system the OP run shows ejecting from the southern plains)...and there's some cold air around too. But its way too early to tell what will happen. Maybe its a cutter or maybe it goes out to sea.

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