November weather dicsussion

[OceanStWx]

I'm thinking a few early snows have a lot of people looking for the onslaught of winter far too early.

 

I don't see anything like some of these last years where it started to become obvious pretty early on that we were going to have some issues.  There's a modest cold shot next week, a return to more mild, and then Thanksgiving week to me looks like it'll be on the cold side with at least a threat of some snow (for you guys not down here).

 

Pretty much what the weather should be doing as we approach meteorological winter.

 

The patterns are going to be transient until the overall pattern changes.  That's kind of clear but that doesn't mean there won't be a gradual step down to colder weather punctuated by cold shots and then warmups.  Chance of something around Sunday the 24th and again around or just after Thanksgiving. 

 

Seasons preforming as seasons?

 

I'm not sure why there is this need for the next cold shot to be stronger than the last. Certainly each week we advance it is easier to achieve the "coldest day so far," but relative magnitude the last surge was more impressive. We were challenging record low max temps in the first half of November. This next air mass is now falling well within the normal range of variability for this time of year based on the latest GEFS run.

[OceanStWx]

GFS is not impressive  with the rain either. 

 

I know it's still early on in their usefulness, but latest SREF run is a mean around 0.35" for CON, with a nice cluster around 0.25".

[CoastalWx]

Seasons preforming as seasons?

 

I'm not sure why there is this need for the next cold shot to be stronger than the last. Certainly each week we advance it is easier to achieve the "coldest day so far," but relative magnitude the last surge was more impressive. We were challenging record low max temps in the first half of November. This next air mass is now falling well within the normal range of variability for this time of year based on the latest GEFS run.

 

A box and whisker graph will be posted to prove you wrong.

[CoastalWx]

I know it's still early on in their usefulness, but latest SREF run is a mean around 0.35" for CON, with a nice cluster around 0.25".

 

My guess is under a half inch too, but I hope not. We could use it down here even if the growing season is done.

[forkyfork]

all the energy curls to the nw of everyone... lame

[OceanStWx]

My guess is under a half inch too, but I hope not. We could use it down here even if the growing season is done.

 

8" of snow on the ground in Pittsburg, NH but the rest of the state is banned from open burning.

[CT Rain]

GFS is not impressive  with the rain either. 

 

Yeah... meh. Seems like the Euro has been way too deep with these lows. They trend weaker and weaker as time goes on. 

[Ginx snewx]

Euro Op was certainly a cold shot IMHO  just to be clear, a +8 850 is a torch but a -8 is not cold when average is +3 . Just checking

[CoastalWx]

8" of snow on the ground in Pittsburg, NH but the rest of the state is banned from open burning.

 

Place is amazing.

[CoastalWx]

Euro Op was certainly a cold shot IMHO  just to be clear, a +8 850 is a torch but a -8 is not cold when average is +3 . Just checking

 

You are assuming it's correct number one, and number 2, congrats on -8 departures for 12 hrs.

[CoastalWx]

Ginx missed my other post I guess. It's a cold shot, just nothing impressive. Meh.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro Op was certainly a cold shot IMHO  just to be clear, a +8 850 is a torch but a -8 is not cold when average is +3 . Just checking

 

 

Its cold for 1-2 days...but nothing like this past coldshot. Its mild on each side of it. The general theme of the mild posts is that the next 7 days will average out solidly positive.

 

 

I think the week of Thanksgiving we will be negative, but I'm not sure by how much yet. The ensembles (both GEFS and EC) have been waffling on the magnitude of the cold that week.

[Ginx snewx]

You are assuming it's correct number one, and number 2, congrats on -8 departures for 12 hrs.

NWS take note, we wlll see their forecasts change I assume.

[CoastalWx]

NWS take note, we wlll see their forecasts change I assume.

 

I don't think low 40s will change.

[Ginx snewx]

Its cold for 1-2 days...but nothing like this past coldshot. Its mild on each side of it. The general theme of the mild posts is that the next 7 days will average out solidly positive.

 

 

I think the week of Thanksgiving we will be negative, but I'm not sure by how much yet. The ensembles (both GEFS and EC) have been waffling on the magnitude of the cold that week.

Certainly nothing at all like the record breaking cold but to see posts this morning saying it will not be cold next week seemed at odds with what I saw and what my forecast shows, its the middle of Nov average  day is like 52/39, 39/25 just seemed cold in the use of the word sense to me. 

[OceanStWx]

Euro Op was certainly a cold shot IMHO  just to be clear, a +8 850 is a torch but a -8 is not cold when average is +3 . Just checking

 

Excuse the arrows, but this was for a Facebook post yesterday showing the raob analysis (so pretty close to reality). As you can see the last cold shot was -10 down to about MVY. This next one, while a cold shot and on the colder side of normal, isn't anything out of the norm for this time of year. That's all I'm trying to say. The Euro still wants to swipe them with -9 briefly, but the GFS is down to only about -6 at the coldest (speaking about the MVY latitude).

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

My guess is under a half inch too, but I hope not. We could use it down here even if the growing season is done.

fwiw...a lot of the ind ec ens members are fairly healthy - definitely better than the GFS and GEFS. 

 

perhaps owing to the stronger LLJ that the ec and ens develop in response to a more amplified pattern aloft? looks a solid 20 knots stronger at 9h on the euro and it's considerably deeper in the upper levels over the Lakes/Canada  

[CoastalWx]

Excuse the arrows, but this was for a Facebook post yesterday showing the raob analysis (so pretty close to reality). As you can see the last cold shot was -10 down to about MVY. This next one, while a cold shot and on the colder side of normal, isn't anything out of the norm for this time of year. That's all I'm trying to say. The Euro still wants to swipe them with -9 briefly, but the GFS is down to only about -6 at the coldest (speaking about the MVY latitude).

 

850T.png

 

Shhhh, don't tell Steve.

[CoastalWx]

fwiw...a lot of the ind ec ens members are fairly healthy - definitely better than the GFS and GEFS. 

 

perhaps owing to the stronger LLJ that the ec and ens develop in response to a more amplified pattern aloft? looks a solid 20 knots stronger at 9h on the euro and it's considerably deeper in the upper levels over the Lakes/Canada  

 

If that s/w can dig like the op shows, I could see some heavier rain. It just looks like a fropa to me and I'm not sure it's going to be able to tap into some good moisture long enough, but I hope it does. The GFS looked rather paltry. It's not your classic slow moving fropa with a lakes cutter. I could see a fine line of +RA like the last one.

[Ginx snewx]

Excuse the arrows, but this was for a Facebook post yesterday showing the raob analysis (so pretty close to reality). As you can see the last cold shot was -10 down to about MVY. This next one, while a cold shot and on the colder side of normal, isn't anything out of the norm for this time of year. That's all I'm trying to say. The Euro still wants to swipe them with -9 briefly, but the GFS is down to only about -6 at the coldest (speaking about the MVY latitude).

 

850T.png

I probably am being misread and did not see anyone else say its comparable to the record breaking event. I do think that LL temps will be colder than you would normally see with that 5H setup up and probably longer lasting than upper air temps suggest but certainly no where near the incredible record breaking day like the other day. 

[Ginx snewx]

Shhhh, don't tell Steve.

Keep trolling Dude, and then complain about it

 

Another several days of warm weather en route. Not really much of any cold shot next week.

[CoastalWx]

Low level winds are also more WNW-NW. Bit of a downslope component...with no snow OTG, I would rather a more NW-NNW flow like this last event.

[OceanStWx]

I probably am being misread and did not see anyone else say its comparable to the record breaking event. I do think that LL temps will be colder than you would normally see with that 5H setup up and probably longer lasting than upper air temps suggest but certainly no where near the incredible record breaking day like the other day. 

 

I'm certainly not singling you out, but I have seen a few posts in here about this cold shot being comparable to the last. I'll give you that if the high pressure can build in like the GFS suggests, we could benefit from some really nice radiational nights. If it goes the way of the Euro and builds SE, we may not do so well.

[CoastalWx]

Keep trolling Dude, and then complain about it

 

Another several days of warm weather en route. Not really much of any cold shot next week.

 

It really isn't much of one as has been pointed out, but whatever floats your boat. Have a good day.

[Tropopause_Fold]

If that s/w can dig like the op shows, I could see some heavier rain. It just looks like a fropa to me and I'm not sure it's going to be able to tap into some good moisture long enough, but I hope it does. The GFS looked rather paltry. It's not your classic slow moving fropa with a lakes cutter. I could see a fine line of +RA like the last one.

yeah that's what it seems like to me. doesn't look like an overly long period of rain...just sort of a narrow band with an embedded line of downpours. i'm not expecting an inch but do hope to crack .5"

[ORH_wxman]

Place is amazing.

 

 

I don't think most people realize that Pittsburg NH averages over 150 inches of snow per year.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think most people realize that Pittsburg NH averages over 150 inches of snow per year.

 

It's pretty much the most undiscovered weenie spot in New England. I was pointed to this last year by Wx2fish who is an avid angler and snowmobiler up there. Check out some of the melt dates for the CT lakes there.

[OceanStWx]

It's pretty much the most undiscovered weenie spot in New England. I was pointed to this last year by Wx2fish who is an avid angler and snowmobiler up there. Check out some of the melt dates for the CT lakes there.

 

9 months of winter, and 3 months of rough sledding.

[CT Rain]

fwiw...a lot of the ind ec ens members are fairly healthy - definitely better than the GFS and GEFS. 

 

perhaps owing to the stronger LLJ that the ec and ens develop in response to a more amplified pattern aloft? looks a solid 20 knots stronger at 9h on the euro and it's considerably deeper in the upper levels over the Lakes/Canada  

 

Yeah Euro Ensemble mean is like 0.8" at BDL... .the op is closer to an inch.

 

It seemed like the Euro was most bullish about the last strong fropa rain event that fell apart as we got closer to the day. 

[snowman21]

For the sake of gauging anomalies, at least as it translates into surface weather, these are the Connecticut normals for the next few weeks:

        Coast  Inland NW Hills
NOV 15  54/36   52/33   49/30
NOV 18  53/36   51/32   48/29
NOV 21  52/35   50/31   47/28
NOV 24  51/34   48/30   46/27
NOV 27  50/33   47/29   44/26
NOV 30  48/32   46/28   43/25
DEC  3  47/31   45/27   42/24
DEC  6  46/30   44/26   40/23