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November weather dicsussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I can appreciate that Thing is...I spent enough time wishing for certain things to happen when I was young. Now...what I care about more is getting it right and understanding why something happened the way it did. Even busting in the "positive" direction kind of sucks. I don't like being wrong - not so much because "being wrong" bothers me but just listening to people talk about it and not understanding how much time/effort goes into trying to get it right. People think it's easy...but the more I learn, the less I know.

 

 

There's a ton of selective memory when it comes to that type of stuff. That's one reason I archived every forecast I sent out to clients...so if anyone ever asked or accused me of forecasting something else than what I actually did, I had backup.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I'm thinking a few early snows have a lot of people looking for the onslaught of winter far too early.

 

I don't see anything like some of these last years where it started to become obvious pretty early on that we were going to have some issues.  There's a modest cold shot next week, a return to more mild, and then Thanksgiving week to me looks like it'll be on the cold side with at least a threat of some snow (for you guys not down here).

 

Pretty much what the weather should be doing as we approach meteorological winter.

 

The patterns are going to be transient until the overall pattern changes.  That's kind of clear but that doesn't mean there won't be a gradual step down to colder weather punctuated by cold shots and then warmups.  Chance of something around Sunday the 24th and again around or just after Thanksgiving. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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I'm thinking a few early snows have a lot of people looking for the onslaught of winter far too early.

I don't see anything like some of these last years where it started to become obvious pretty early on that we were going to have some issues. There's a modest cold shot next week, a return to more mild, and then Thanksgiving week to me looks like it'll be on the cold side with at least a threat of some snow (for you guys not down here).

Pretty much what the weather should be doing as we approach meteorological winter.

The patterns are going to be transient until the overall pattern changes. That's kind of clear but that doesn't mean there won't be a gradual step down to colder weather punctuated by cold shots and then warmups. Chance of something around Sunday the 24th and again around or just after Thanksgiving.

Yeah, I think this year looks like what you think of in terms of gradual steps down. Everything seems par for the course right now.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I can appreciate that Thing is...I spent enough time wishing for certain things to happen when I was young. Now...what I care about more is getting it right and understanding why something happened the way it did. Even busting in the "positive" direction kind of sucks. I don't like being wrong - not so much because "being wrong" bothers me but just listening to people talk about it and not understanding how much time/effort goes into trying to get it right. People think it's easy...but the more I learn, the less I know.

weather is serious business but being a perfectionist in an imperfect profession has to be tough. Are you doing this full time now?
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'm thinking a few early snows have a lot of people looking for the onslaught of winter far too early.

I don't see anything like some of these last years where it started to become obvious pretty early on that we were going to have some issues. There's a modest cold shot next week, a return to more mild, and then Thanksgiving week to me looks like it'll be on the cold side with at least a threat of some snow (for you guys not down here).

Pretty much what the weather should be doing as we approach meteorological winter.

The patterns are going to be transient until the overall pattern changes. That's kind of clear but that doesn't mean there won't be a gradual step down to colder weather punctuated by cold shots and then warmups. Chance of something around Sunday the 24th and again around or just after Thanksgiving.

who is calling for an onslaught of winter?
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Sweet! Nothing worse than having the windows open because it's in the 60s on Thanksgiving, lol.

 

Reminds me of the Thanksgiving around 2006 or so.  Just awful.  Up in Maine, a tornado rips through down the road.  Quintessential  Thanksgiving day.

 

if we get a storm, my biggest concern is a MPM PF fetishes precip deficit.

 

I'm trying to be stoic about things this year.  I wonder how long I'll hold out.

 

my favorite,IMG_20130218_082525.jpg

 

Nice pic, Steve.  Is that the 'stead?  Nice spot.

 

Looks like the look has continued to mild-up a bit in the overnight.  But, a turn around come Thanksgiving still seems to be in the cards.

 

Mild start today.

 

29.8/16

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weathafella

weathafella

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DT says in that link a strong +EPO is due to a strong upper h5 in the Aleutians. I thought that was technically still negative albeit not the most optimal positioning. I thought positive had the h5 way south in the pacific and low anomalies over ak. Maybe all of my perceptions are warped?

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dendrite

dendrite

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lol

For reasons that I cannot figure out a large number private Energy Service providers during the month of October and November have committed to a mild and in some cases it extremely mild WINTER 2013-14 forecast. Not just the folks over Accu Buinder or at CPC . But I know for fact that several other well known private weather information providers are calling for pretty mild winter— such as CWxG EARTH RISK (formally weather bug) as well as CPC. In addition there HAS an awful lot of speculation and really bad forecasting and reasoning being displayed on many of the weather forum boards — specifically American weather forms and one over in Europe .

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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DT says in that link a strong +EPO is due to a strong upper h5 in the Aleutians. I thought that was technically still negative albeit not the most optimal positioning. I thought positive had the h5 way south in the pacific and low anomalies over ak. Maybe all of my perceptions are warped?

He mentions the EPO moving NW which basically would then imply more of a -EPO configuration.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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I can appreciate that Thing is...I spent enough time wishing for certain things to happen when I was young. Now...what I care about more is getting it right and understanding why something happened the way it did. Even busting in the "positive" direction kind of sucks. I don't like being wrong - not so much because "being wrong" bothers me but just listening to people talk about it and not understanding how much time/effort goes into trying to get it right. People think it's easy...but the more I learn, the less I know.

 

^ This ..I'm not in full agreement with the more i learn the less i know part, i guess it applies sometimes...but the rest of what you said couldn't have summed it up any better.

 

DT says in that link a strong +EPO is due to a strong upper h5 in the Aleutians. I thought that was technically still negative albeit not the most optimal positioning. I thought positive had the h5 way south in the pacific and low anomalies over ak. Maybe all of my perceptions are warped?

 

I didn't get where he was going with that +EPO talk at all either. I also don't understand the first sentence in his write-up. Cant understand for the life of him why people forecasting warmth? I respect his opinion to go colder but what is his reasoning. Word has it he doesn't buy into the SAI argument?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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^ This ..I'm not in full agreement with the more i learn the less i know part, i guess it applies sometimes...but the rest of what you said couldn't have summed it up any better.

I didn't get where he was going with that +EPO talk at all either. I also don't understand the first sentence in his write-up. Cant understand for the life of him why people forecasting warmth? I respect his opinion to go colder but what is his reasoning. Word has it he doesn't buy into the SAI argument?

At least that's what I think he meant regarding the EPO, but he's in his own world sometimes.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Yeah I'm not sure he realizes that a lot of these people he talks about have at least have been discussing a cold end of novy/early Dec..some even a cold Dec forecast all together..in an otherwise warm winter outlook.. 

i know some energy mets have been on this like flys on poop, too bad they do not post here but its seems DT is not aware of "somethings". Where is Blizz 24?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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his whole EPO discussion is wrong, lets just say the EPO has not been positive.

 

Well in his defense and after looking at the H5 anomalies on the euro ensembles..it isn't technically a -EPO. It's sort of a split flow look with a ridge in the Aleutians and above AK, trough over AK and a +PNA. So it's a weird kind of look, but a good one.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Euro ensembles backed off the cold in the long range...so the flip flop continue. It is still below average, but not like yesterday's 12z run.

 

Yeah heights lowered quite a bit near AK, but at least the PNA started to rise. Pretty much what we spoke about this being more of a patience deal.

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