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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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Still a good look on the ensembles near and after T-day.

 

 

That's a weird looking signal around D10-11..for next Sunday. It has almost a snowstorm look to it via a coastal but I'm wondering if it is averaging a lakes cutter or nothing to make it appear that way.

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That's a weird looking signal around D10-11..for next Sunday. It has almost a snowstorm look to it via a coastal but I'm wondering if it is averaging a lakes cutter or nothing to make it appear that way.

 

I noticed this too. It does have a coastal or secondary look, but if you look at the evolution of it...some members must also be cutters too.

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That's a weird looking signal around D10-11..for next Sunday. It has almost a snowstorm look to it via a coastal but I'm wondering if it is averaging a lakes cutter or nothing to make it appear that way.

 

Been hints around that time for a few days.  If I were prone to hype that'd be the next item to focus on.  Aside of hacky sacks and temp departure talk.

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I noticed this too. It does have a coastal or secondary look, but if you look at the evolution of it...some members must also be cutters too.

 

 

That one will definitely have to be watched with one eye...though I'm not really feeling it in the pattern that soon. I would feel like that wants to be a cutter over anything else, but there is a decent push of cold from the north, so you always have to keep an eye on it.

 

I am definitely liking the look beyond that though during the week of T-day and probably beyond. Maybe we will break the White Thanksgiving drought this year in SNE (haven't had one in the interior since 2005...2002 closer to the coast)

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That one will definitely have to be watched with one eye...though I'm not really feeling it in the pattern that soon. I would feel like that wants to be a cutter over anything else, but there is a decent push of cold from the north, so you always have to keep an eye on it.

 

I am definitely liking the look beyond that though during the week of T-day and probably beyond. Maybe we will break the White Thanksgiving drought this year in SNE (haven't had one in the interior since 2005...2002 closer to the coast)

 

Yeah verbatim you can't ask for much better. I almost wish this were the end of November and we saw this for December, but I won't complain with the look shown. I just hope we can have this look for December.

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So Thanksgiving week looks cold.  How did the weeklies look today for beyond as we had into the first half of the first month of met winter?

 

 

A lot of cold available in the northern tier in Canada and plains where it is frigid...we were slightly below normal through mid-December.

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Thanks Will.  That sounds like a decent pattern which could bring snow (and the risk of rain).

 

 

Yes, I like the look...week 4 is obviously way out there and could change a lot. Week 3 already has the solid EPO ridge (which is on the ensembles by 200 hours) which has credibility.

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Well we could only hope. It certainly a nice look to week 4. Nice to see the weeklies not back off  as we get closer...adds more confidence.

The fears of the death vortex have been alleviated, Canada is cold, sure we always face the warm days now and then in winter, what winter doesn'"t, but the calls for a dead ratter are slowly heading towards the proverbial trash pile.

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The fears of the death vortex have been alleviated, Canada is cold, sure we always face the warm days now and then in winter, what winter doesn'"t, but the calls for a dead ratter are slowly heading towards the proverbial trash pile.

 

Well there is a lot of time for that to occur..lol. I still think the base state is not a pretty one and that we are lucky some other factors are trying to help out. Way too early to start cheering for an epic winter, but I admit December is looking to at least start with a bang.

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The fears of the death vortex have been alleviated, Canada is cold, sure we always face the warm days now and then in winter, what winter doesn'"t, but the calls for a dead ratter are slowly heading towards the proverbial trash pile.

  The vortex fears even among mets is irrational.  In the ebb and flow of things, occasionally you get a year where it sits and sits.  Despite the trolling from one met, there never was a tendency to anchor and not move.  From time to time it moves in and then moves out.  And I'm pretty sure there was a robust vortex during our February 2013 blizzard.  

 

I know I'm beating a dead horse but the SSTA in September which initially started as a weenie concoction in my tiny brain actually has signaled our winter for the past 3 years.   As the sample size increases over the years let's see if it has legs.  But remarkeably, the SSTA at that time and the correlated pattern in the guidance has continuity.  We shall see but I'm more bullish than I've been in a long time.

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The fears of the death vortex have been alleviated, Canada is cold, sure we always face the warm days now and then in winter, what winter doesn'"t, but the calls for a dead ratter are slowly heading towards the proverbial trash pile.

Gradient pattern might not work out for the coastal plain, especially in December

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  The vortex fears even among mets is irrational.  In the ebb and flow of things, occasionally you get a year where it sits and sits.  Despite the trolling from one met, there never was a tendency to anchor and not move.  From time to time it moves in and then moves out.  And I'm pretty sure there was a robust vortex during our February 2013 blizzard.  

 

I know I'm beating a dead horse but the SSTA in September which initially started as a weenie concoction in my tiny brain actually has signaled our winter for the past 3 years.   As the sample size increases over the years let's see if it has legs.  But remarkeably, the SSTA at that time and the correlated pattern in the guidance has continuity.  We shall see but I'm more bullish than I've been in a long time.

 

It's not us just looking for some sort of lower heights near AK and getting worried. It's much deeper than that.  It's looking at the whole picture and understanding the background state. I'm not sitting here looking at a 10m change in heights over AK and sounding the alarm. I stated why December may start out fairly wintry in several posts..one being some warmer water west of the dateline helping the MJO propagate, but that is not a given. I that goes towards phase 3, then all bets are off. It's not an easy call, but it looks to start out interesting.

 

I should also state that we may be dealing with a -PNA in which I don't have to state the obvious risk there.

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Nah, go cold or go home.

 

Its just the usual early season optimism... hard to not get a little excited by finally getting a good cold shot or two in here in early/mid November.  

 

The mood would be different if it was like 60F every single day.  Even Blizz was worried in October when it was warm.  

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It's November 13th. A lot of confidence on here for so early.

Nah, go cold or go home.

Seems that way.

We'll see what the residence time is of the ridging in the WPO / EPO regions. I agree we wouldn't want to see a big hole in the atmosphere locking in there this time of year, but by the same token...if it holds for another 4 weeks...we aren't even at Christmas yet.

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