OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah i don't quite understand how that's a torch..That like 30's to low 40's Tuesday-Thurs..It does warm up a bit next Friday into the weekend You have to admit the overall 7 day run on the Euro isn't cold by any means. Sneak a couple below normal days in among the likely well above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:49 PM, OceanStWx said: You have to admit the overall 7 day run on the Euro isn't cold by any means. Sneak a couple below normal days in among the likely well above. Yeah, looks that way. Maybe I'll put some winterizer and grass seed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 6:43 PM, wxmanmitch said: Woodford, VT FTW! Know that spot well as I will sometimes take a weenie drive up there during the winter if I'm up for something a little more ambitious than Peru or Windsor here in the Berkshires. I last took a drive up there in mid March and there was zilch in Bennington, but by the time I reached the Big Pond area, there was a 2'+ glacier. Big upslope spot that cashes in on both easterly and westerly flows. They had 27" in the 12/26-27/12 event while Bennington had 3". I'd say Woodford averages 140-150" per year. It's an intriguing area to live considering the proximity to DDH. Maybe someday...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Pretty solid torch over the next 8 days on the Euro. The cold shot next week has been coming in less impressive...however, changes in the EPO region by D7 do hint at better times ahead maybe during T-day week. yeah. i liked the cold shot as it was modeled yesterday. last 2 runs have backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:50 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, looks that way. Maybe I'll put some winterizer and grass seed down. My forecast for Monday is a +10 at PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 You guys have to realize it's a Pacific driven -PNA pattern so the risk always is milder...especially so early in the season. I see no reason to think otherwise unless there is a -NAO. That doesn't mean it can't get cold, it means that the cold shots have a risk of bouncing or lifting out rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:51 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: yeah. i liked the cold shot as it was modeled yesterday. last 2 runs have backed off. We were briefly sniffing -15C at 850mb on a couple runs, but subsequent runs are struggling to get us to -10C, which is less impressive than the cold shot that just happened....it will still be pretty darn cold at least one night, but the overall trend has been to mute it a bit compared to a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The extended talk (and this hasn't changed) is trying to feature somewhat of a -NAO and more cross polar flow which is probably a better look for us. However, unless there is a -NAO...I think the risk here is still a -PNA one in which the SE ridge tries to flex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:51 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: yeah. i liked the cold shot as it was modeled yesterday. last 2 runs have backed off.The GFS still looks optimal for radiationsl cooling with that strong HP, the Euro has the HP at our latitude and looks pretty meh overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I can only imagine what they look like.hmn you would never guess, profiling fyl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Boy the MJO is helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:49 PM, OceanStWx said: You have to admit the overall 7 day run on the Euro isn't cold by any means. Sneak a couple below normal days in among the likely well above. It's not cold thruout..but it's below normal next Tuesday thru Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Boy the MJO is helping A lot of models have it going into the C.O.D. There is some warmer water west of the dateline so if there is some sort of impetus to push it east, that will help it along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It's not cold thruout..but it's below normal next Tuesday thru Thursday And milder before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said: And milder before and after. So days 8-10 is locked for warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said: And milder before and after. lol you all are saying the same thing. Overall it averages above but a couple days of below possible middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So days 8-10 is locked for warmth? Euro is cold D10, warmish D8-9. I wouldn't feel great about cold yet at D10 given the longwave pattern on the ensembles. I would favor warm, cold, warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So days 8-10 is locked for warmth? Will has it right..probably warm-cold-warm...something like that. Not sure why that's hard to understand. And honestly. this isn't a change other than the last two runs backing off a bit from next week's cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said: And milder before and after. You know Kevin only like to accentuate the positives. Cold in Winter, Hot in summer. I saw nothing exciting thru day 10 on the models other than what looked like a TC on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:22 PM, ETauntonMA said: You know Kevin only like to accentuate the positives. Cold in Winter, Hot in summer. I saw nothing exciting thru day 10 on the models other than what looked like a TC on the Euro. What about the wound up cutter with monster winds next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What about the wound up cutter with monster winds next week? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What about the wound up cutter with monster winds next week? Maybe a little snow behind the cutter? && Snow accumulate on west-northwest/upslope flow Monday night/Tuesday could bring dusting in valleys and a couple inches over hir terrain. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What about the wound up cutter with monster winds next week? Not sure it pans out like that here. Still out 4 days. Verbatim, it looks as though the low occludes too soon to give us anything great. Maybe some minor winds, rain as the front rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 8:30 PM, powderfreak said: Maybe a little snow behind the cutter? && Snow accumulate on west-northwest/upslope flow Monday night/Tuesday could bring dusting in valleys and a couple inches over hir terrain. && Yeah, that'll be nice up in NY/ NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 850s ~+7C to start the day tomorrow...some spots should approach 60F with good WSW flow. pretty big turn-around from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 On 11/14/2013 at 7:56 PM, mob1 said: The GFS still looks optimal for radiationsl cooling with that strong HP, the Euro has the HP at our latitude and looks pretty meh overall. yeah would likely be a couple of cold nights there with good rad cooling on those progs. cheap cold though as the air aloft is well on its way to warming back up by that point. really even tonight will probably cool pretty well in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro Ens are below normal from Tuesday on, normal for NYC from the 19th to the 24th is +2 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 How do Euro ens look? Cold holiday week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty darn cold for the week of T-day...going beyond Ginx's graph. They look very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Still a good look on the ensembles near and after T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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