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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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After the brutal but brief cold shot over the next 48 hours, it looks like we will begin to warm back up for the November 15-20 time range...beyond that is a bit uncertain, but it looks like no major return to cold for at least the next 10-12 days...perhaps a hint beyond that.

 

 

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Euro ensembles are bringing cold into the Plains and try to turn the east more stormy. Be my guest as to what happens or falls at this stage.  The overall look of the ensembles is decent, but I'm not confident how stable it will be heading into December. You could make an argument from both sides to be honest....but for now there is not an AK vortex.

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Yeah Euro ensembles in extended range (like week of T-day) are back to below normal, but not excessively so. The look is decent...not amazing, but decent. It would refresh Canada a bit and finally put the central and eastern US back into a polar airmass.

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Yeah Euro ensembles in extended range (like week of T-day) are back to below normal, but not excessively so. The look is decent...not amazing, but decent. It would refresh Canada a bit and finally put the central and eastern US back into a polar airmass.

 

What do you think? I sort of like the look...but I wish there was a bit more EPO ridging. I suppose beggars can't be choosers, it could be a lot worse.

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What do you think? I sort of like the look...but I wish there was a bit more EPO ridging. I suppose beggars can't be choosers, it could be a lot worse.

 

 

Yeah its fine. Its decently cold. Everyone's gotta remember that climo on 11/25 at 850mb is still only like +1 at BOS and like -6C in the arrowhead of MN.

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Yeah its fine. Its decently cold. Everyone's gotta remember that climo on 11/25 at 850mb is still only like +1 at BOS and like -6C in the arrowhead of MN.

 

I'd take the GEFS in a heartbeat. Had a nice look beyond T-Day. with the ridging near AK. Big time cold moving through Canada.

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euro weeklies?

 

Pretty nice week 4. Week 3 has some weak EPO ridging and weak ridging into srn Greenland. Week 4 had a better ridge centered in your typical -NAO region with some ridging  a bit westward now near the Aleutians and western AK. Verbatim, temp anomalies. -1 to -2 for you with  colder anomalies to the north. I don't really pay attention to the srfc temps, just the H5 pattern.

 

I definitely think tropical forcing is trying to help out if it's showing this depiction.

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I read in another wx forum someone (I think he posts on these forums ampsu19?). Anyway he was talking about how those forecasting a warm December may be in serious trouble based on what he's seeing in the tropical pacific. He and HM think there may be more of a west based -NAO than what most think. Interesting

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I read in another wx forum someone (I think he posts on these forums ampsu19?). Anyway he was talking about how those forecasting a warm December may be in serious trouble based on what he's seeing in the tropical pacific. He and HM think there may be more of a west based -NAO than what most think. Interesting

Well if the more skilled models are right, it would improve the Pacific. That's why I mentioned the MJO earlier, but not all models agree. Some of Paul Roundy's products indicate this as well which is probably why they are talking about the -NAO. Also, it seems that early Siberian snow cover correlated to a Dec -NAO which then slowly rose through the winter. Not a high sample size though.

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Well if the more skilled models are right, it would improve the Pacific. That's why I mentioned the MJO earlier, but not all models agree. Some of Paul Roundy's products indicate this as well which is probably why they are talking about the -NAO. Also, it seems that early Siberian snow cover correlated to a Dec -NAO which then slowly rose through the winter. Not a high sample size though.

Yeah they were mentioning something about a warm Tibetan plateau event. Not really sure what means but they said it would favour more -AO/-EPO style ridging. Good news if you ask me

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Yeah they were mentioning something about a warm Tibetan plateau event. Not really sure what means but they said it would favour more -AO/-EPO style ridging. Good news if you ask me

The coming phase change is occurring at the perfect time for wintry storms. Since the beginning of the month signs have appeared which have indicated this. The missing ingredient is going to be organized precip. Hopefully during this period we can stir up a storm or two. I have been encouraged and remain so.
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This probably belongs in some other thread, but the seeming impacts of this on our weather are recognized.  

 

Iknow we had posts a couple years back about the record sunspot minimium.  Well, I guess we're coming to a similarly weak max and some oddities regarding the shifting of the sun's polarity (or lack thereof).

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304672404579183940409194498

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It sounds as if things are changing quicker than thought. HPC

 IF ONE FOLLOWS THE MUCH FASTER GFS...THAT SYSTEM WILL HAVEALREADY CLEARED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WOULD BE GRINDING OUT AFAIRLY INTENSE WINTER SYSTEM FOR NEW ENGLAND. FOLLOWING THE MUCHSLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A WELL-DEVELOP WINTER CYCLONE IN THEGREAT LAKES.  ALL THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR A SECONDARY WAVE(IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM) TO MOVE ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY BY DAY7. EXACTLY WHERE...IS TIED TO DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERNALBERTA AS EARLY AS DAY 5. THIS DAY 5 SYSTEM HAS IMPLICATIONS FORTHE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND WILL BE A CHALLENGEFROM BOTH A TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE AFTER DAY 5.STAY TUNED AND FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
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That's a great -EPO on the euro ensembles at the end of the run. Extrapolating that out would yield some fun heading towards the end of the run. After Wednesday Kevin will need to close his eyes and lower the shades for a whole.

low-mid 50's for a few days ain't bad. Also signs of a backdoor this weekend. Then arctic fropa middle of next week..nothing hideous at all

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The latest analogs based on the 0z Euro ensemble mean day 10 forecast suggest some ridging over the Pacific northwest and some ridging over the north Atlantic extending towards Greenland. The composite mean of the analogs shown here is similar to the 500 hPa height field forecast by the ensemble mean.

 

post-869-0-75531000-1384254921_thumb.png

 

The composite 850 hPa temperature anomaly map of the top analogs shows some below average departures centered over the northeast.

post-869-0-60045100-1384254778_thumb.gif

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The latest analogs based on the 0z Euro ensemble mean day 10 forecast suggest some ridging over the Pacific northwest and some ridging over the north Atlantic extending towards Greenland. The composite mean of the analogs shown here is similar to the 500 hPa height field forecast by the ensemble mean.

 

attachicon.gifecmAnalog240.png

 

The composite 850 hPa temperature anomaly map of the top analogs shows some below average departures centered over the northeast.

attachicon.gifcompday.q2WySvaDYN.gif

Great tool and thanks for sharing!

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