TalcottWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013111123&plotName=1ref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 That looks terrible here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Is that because those areas seem to be in the best combination of having a bit more moisture and lift, yet still a decently cold surface? I honestly haven't examined BUFKIT for all that many sites. Yeah well what might happen is as the trough sharpens, you'll get the echoes blossoming but also slowing their march southeastward at the same time. The combo of that plus CAA at the surface could yield a coating or maybe even an inch or so in spots. The wildcard is just how organized will this thing get. If it gets its act together too late than it's nothing but mangled flakes down there. The boundary layer also will need to cool, but that will be hastened if the precip falls at a steady clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah well what might happen is as the trough sharpens, you'll get the echoes blossoming but also slowing their march southeastward at the same time. The combo of that plus CAA at the surface could yield a coating or maybe even an inch or so in spots. The wildcard is just how organized will this thing get. If it gets its act together too late than it's nothing but mangled flakes down there. The boundary layer also will need to cool, but that will be hastened if the precip falls at a steady clip. That makes a lot of sense and I didn't even consider that...the flow becoming more meridional could definitely act to slow the progression of the precip while also prolonging the lift and blossoming the echoes. The decently southerly component at the midlevels could try to make up for the lack of initial moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah...there's some thin spots in the ovc across N MA/S NH so those who went calm are getting some weak radiational cooling. Some stars showing atm here in Franklin Co. Down to 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Clouds rolled in quick here earlier. I'd almost call it balmy out right now. Everything on track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 You can see why I said the HRRR was waffling because the 00z run came in bullish. It will do that towards the end of the run...the key is to see if there is a 2-3hr trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Good luck with the snow down there. What'd you get? Come snow season, hope you get a load of sand to weigh down the back. Nothing like a good set of studded snows to complete the ensemble. Looks like some returns over the higher elevations. Not sure if anything is hitting the ground, but perhaps its allowing for some evaporational cooling. Could use some of that here--a painstaking slow temp drop tonight. 40.3/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I upgraded from my 03 dakota to a 2011 silverado. To be honest, i miss the dodge so far, but it is a nice truck. I usually put cinderblocks between the 2 x 10 slots in the bedliner. Virga town her earlier, my son is a monster so I haven't been outside in hours but nothin is goin on atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 For you guys watching and waiting I posted this in NNE from Winooski, VT in the CPV (near BTV): Wow that was one of the most rapid changeovers I have seen. i would say as soon as this main band hit with the front it took 1-2 minutes to go from rain to snow/sleet to mostly snow. We have about 0.1" in Winooski and although it has lightened up some it is still snowing. Despite the rain everything dusted quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I upgraded from my 03 dakota to a 2011 silverado. To be honest, i miss the dodge so far, but it is a nice truck. I usually put cinderblocks between the 2 x 10 slots in the bedliner. Virga town her earlier, my son is a monster so I haven't been outside in hours but nothin is goin on atm Nice. I've got 2007 F-150. I don't know what I'd do without it. Only has 75k on it, but I'm running it constantly here at the Pit. Lots to move around. Not sure how long it'll take for these echos to reach the ground--haven't seen any nearby reports that they are. 38.6/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 For you guys watching and waiting I posted this in NNE from Winooski, VT in the CPV (near BTV): Wow that was one of the most rapid changeovers I have seen. i would say as soon as this main band hit with the front it took 1-2 minutes to go from rain to snow/sleet to mostly snow. We have about 0.1" in Winooski and although it has lightened up some it is still snowing. Despite the rain everything dusted quickly. Congrats! Meanwhile, this is just plain ugly for 10:45 in mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Nice. I've got 2007 F-150. I don't know what I'd do without it. Only has 75k on it, but I'm running it constantly here at the Pit. Lots to move around. Not sure how long it'll take for these echos to reach the ground--haven't seen any nearby reports that they are. Side bar: the truck only had 15k, and my father in law is good friends with dealer, so I couldn't pass, can't wait to see how she handles snow, now that I am in the north country 38.6/28 Was just lookin at the radar around buffalo, some decent returns just south, hope things pan out, first real snow is always exciting, espically driving to beantown in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Looks like a quick 0.2 but it is tapering off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Was just lookin at the radar around buffalo, some decent returns just south, hope things pan out, first real snow is always exciting, espically driving to beantown in it! Frankly, i'm not sure how much snow you'll encounter on your way to Boston. But any flakes are good flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 GFS really tries to slow down the back edge as it exits stage right...pretty decent looking soundings too for areas in SE MA before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 GFS really tries to slow down the back edge as it exits stage right...pretty decent looking soundings too for areas in SE MA before it ends. Could be fun for those folks. What's your take on the rate of change-over, Will? Think the Winooski experience will be repeated in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 GFS really tries to slow down the back edge as it exits stage right...pretty decent looking soundings too for areas in SE MA before it ends.Maybe an inch in the taunton area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 GFS really tries to slow down the back edge as it exits stage right...pretty decent looking soundings too for areas in SE MA before it ends. Was just looking at some 00z 4km nam soundings for my parents area down on Long Island for the morning tomorrow...looks halfway decent. Snow growth is quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Was just looking at some 00z 4km nam soundings for my parents area down on Long Island for the morning tomorrow...looks halfway decent. Snow growth is quite good. Yeah the snow growth region is quite deep on the soundings. If the precip is falling just halfway decent, then it could cause a nice burst of moderate snow and a quick accumulation. Its kind of a tough forecast for such a paltry event...since it could briefly be fairly high impact or be almost nothing at all. If somewhere like Foxoborough with a bit of elevation on I-95 goes to SN at 30F for an hour or two tomorrow morning during rush hour, it could get pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Maybe an inch in the taunton area? I'm thinking that might be right on the money. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I'm thinking that might be right on the money. JMO I feel like I'm in as good a spot as any for more than a dusting. First measurable always exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Maybe an inch in the taunton area? Best chance for that is probably to your NW with some elevation, but I think a good coating possibly. HRRR continues bullish with the precip blossoming and hanging tough as the flow aloft turns a bit more SW...meanwhile colder air filters in at the surface. Despite the 50F temps currently, strong CAA and melting of snow as it falls into the warmer column will really plummet temps quickly after the front moves through. I think many will be surprised how fast it drops. Melting snow requires energy and hence helps lower temps. That's why many marginal events love to hang near 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 It's still 47 degrees here in Tolland... how much longer before it's supposed to drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 It's still 47 degrees here in Tolland... how much longer before it's supposed to drop? At least 4-5 more hours until it really starts dropping fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 As Will mentioned a possible flash freeze at the worst time for the Metro morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 At least 4-5 more hours until it really starts dropping fast. Just in time for Kevin to be waking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Best chance for that is probably to your NW with some elevation, but I think a good coating possibly. HRRR continues bullish with the precip blossoming and hanging tough as the flow aloft turns a bit more SW...meanwhile colder air filters in at the surface. Despite the 50F temps currently, strong CAA and melting of snow as it falls into the warmer column will really plummet temps quickly after the front moves through. I think many will be surprised how fast it drops. Melting snow requires energy and hence helps lower temps. That's why many marginal events love to hang near 32F. Thanks for the insight. I was getting a little curious as to when temps were supposed to start dropping as it was 50 degrees the last time I checked, but that makes a lot of sense. Just need to get the precip going to make it happen. Obviously will be happy for anybody who may exceed expectations, as many around here are i the same boat in regards to getting the seasons first snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I think sw Ct over to sw RI stands a decent shot tommorrow 6-10 am , as there is some decent elevation (300-500ft) just several miles from the shoreline and i think it seems they are best situated to make best of sharpening trough. Possible the hilly areas in se mass do well also, i think best precip likely sets up SE of the Easton/Foxboro areas w ok elevation so i would have much lower confidence, Also wondering if its like a 35f snow there after some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Thanks for the insight. I was getting a little curious as to when temps were supposed to start dropping as it was 50 degrees the last time I checked, but that makes a lot of sense. Just need to get the precip going to make it happen. Obviously will be happy for anybody who may exceed expectations, as many around here are i the same boat in regards to getting the seasons first snowfall. It may fall slightly due to evaporational cooling in any shwrs before the front noes through, but it really won't fall until after frontal passge. Good luck, it's one of those events that either produces or nothing really at all. At least a coating is within reach I think down there. Maybe a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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