ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We'll continue the discussion pertaining to the arctic front, snow showers (or even a burst of steadier snow) and very cold temps in here. My quick thoughts: 1. The biggest story will be the cold. It won't be long lasting (about 2 days), but high temps may not make it above freezing on Wednesday. Record low maxes are in jeopardy for some. 2. The arctic front shoul dhave a band of precip just behind it that will probably start as rain showers for most...but then transition to snow before ending. The soundings briefly become isothermal between about 600-700mb at -10 to -11C...this could allow for a burst of steadier snow that starts to accumulate before it end...we'll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Nothing down here on Cape, ORH? Look forward to rain I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 3:52 PM, ORH_wxman said: We'll continue the discussion pertaining to the arctic front, snow showers (or even a burst of steadier snow) and very cold temps in here. My quick thoughts: 1. The biggest story will be the cold. It won't be long lasting (about 2 days), but high temps may not make it above freezing on Wednesday. Record low maxes are in jeopardy for some. 2. The arctic front shoul dhave a band of precip just behind it that will probably start as rain showers for most...but then transition to snow before ending. The soundings briefly become isothermal between about 600-700mb at -10 to -11C...this could allow for a burst of steadier snow that starts to accumulate before it end...we'll have to watch that. Both american models amped up the QPF and dynamics a bit, nice. I'm wondering if there is going to be a narrow band of fairly "intense" early season snow or if it's a little too far SE, snow and rain mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 not bad really. wouldn't be shocked at all to see a coating on the grass right to the S coast. soundings look like an hour or two of steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 From 6z NAM. I noticed that the 12z GFS is a bit juicier. 00z Euro ensembles had around 0.1" for the I-84 corridor and just shy of 0.2" QPF down by GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:38 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: not bad really. wouldn't be shocked at all to see a coating on the grass right to the S coast. soundings look like an hour or two of steady light snow. On 11/11/2013 at 4:41 PM, CT Rain said: From 6z NAM. I noticed that the 12z GFS is a bit juicier. 00z Euro ensembles had around 0.1" for the I-84 corridor and just shy of 0.2" QPF down by GON. Yeah as long as we actually keep this precip going through about 12z, I see no reason why we can't have a quick burst of steadier snow to the coastline. I also would keep an eye for a potential flash freeze in the 10-12z range over the interior. We could go from like 34F to 28F pretty quickly with steady snow falling...this could actually be a pretty nasty morning commute if that pans out...obviously a lot will depend on if we can get that steadier burst of precip versus just spottier/lighter stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah as long as we actually keep this precip going through about 12z, I see no reason why we can't have a quick burst of steadier snow to the coastline. I also would keep an eye for a potential flash freeze in the 10-12z range over the interior. We could go from like 34F to 28F pretty quickly with steady snow falling...this could actually be a pretty nasty morning commute if that pans out...obviously a lot will depend on if we can get that steadier burst of precip versus just spottier/lighter stuff. Yup that's the concern. I'm not sure how this plays off but there are a few signals pointing toward a relatively high impact event for very little snow. First of the season, flash freeze possibility, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Optimism has been turned on. Hoping to see something here in Falmouth. What's the timing for onset of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:46 PM, CT Rain said: Yup that's the concern. I'm not sure how this plays off but there are a few signals pointing toward a relatively high impact event for very little snow. First of the season, flash freeze possibility, etc. Yeah...timing too. 6-8am could be nasty in spots which obviously coincides with morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I firmly believe many of us see at least 1 inch and some lucky folks will see 2. I've been thinking this for several days even when others were chuckling at me. I almost think there might be 2 max zones..One interior elevated..maybe a shaft zone and then S Ri and SE Mass with 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:48 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...timing too. 6-8am could be nasty in spots which obviously coincides with morning commute. Definitely... that's what I meant to mention first in the impact list lol. Interested to see what the Euro shows since the Euro has been a bit more bullish on this the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:50 PM, CT Rain said: Definitely... that's what I meant to mention first in the impact list lol. Interested to see what the Euro shows since the Euro has been a bit more bullish on this the entire time. I saw a Euro snowfall map on Twitter that showed some 1-2 inch amounts scattered around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I actually threw out the flash freeze comment and joked about I-84 shut down a couple of days ago when the euro was bullish although timing obviously needed to work out. I think that possibility is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 As mentioned, untreated roads, timing, people forgetting how to drive Can't wait to be on Rte 2. Wheeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I firmly believe many of us see at least 1 inch and some lucky folks will see 2. I've been thinking this for several days even when others were chuckling at me. I almost think there might be 2 max zones..One interior elevated..maybe a shaft zone and then S Ri and SE Mass with 1-2 Ch. 7 and 25 are both saying north of BOS and out towards ORH. Perhaps a dusting in BOS, but it will melt off. 5 says that most of eastern Mass will see measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 4:50 PM, CT Rain said: Definitely... that's what I meant to mention first in the impact list lol. Interested to see what the Euro shows since the Euro has been a bit more bullish on this the entire time. Yeah..I could see this over-performing expectations compared to the actual written forecast given the potential factors already mentioned...brief burst of steadier snow, flash freeze potential, etc. People see a dusting to maybe a half inch or inch and wouldn't expect any issues. It could also just end up as a few flakes if that little band can't really get organized, but I think seeing guidance not back off (if anything maybe slightly ramp up) on the system is a good sign for those trying to squeeze out a wintry looking morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 What's it look like down here-seeing some hope for RI/SE MA coasts-does that extend west through the CT shoreline as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Love it, great discussions, Nov snow rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Considering the strength of the incoming cold, could areas that see early morning rain turn into areas of icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 You can see folding over and large spaces of Theta-e near 20K. This is a bit high, but probably argues for a decent burst of snow thanks to that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:12 PM, PeabodyFlood said: Considering the strength of the incoming cold, could areas that see early morning rain turn into areas of icing? No, the mid-levels will cool first (actually they are already marginally cold enough for snow even before the front in MA/NH/VT) which will prevent any chance for icing. The ice that will need to be watched is a flash freeze though on roadways early tomorrow. Best chance will be in the interior where some upper 20s may occur while we still have a saturated airmass with snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I definitely could see a little second area of QPF down near the south coast like Kevin alluded to. Just has that look, but decent lift through a moist column over the whole area pretty much. I don't think this is a >1" deal for most though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Just announce it now so the parents and kiddos can sleep in, no school Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:17 PM, CoastalWx said: I definitely could see a little second area of QPF down near the south coast like Kevin alluded to. Just has that look, but decent lift through a moist column over the whole area pretty much. I don't think this is a >1" deal for most though.looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:09 PM, Brian5671 said: What's it look like down here-seeing some hope for RI/SE MA coasts-does that extend west through the CT shoreline as well? Rain probably ending as snow with maybe a coating in those areas. Probably one of those things where the snow falls near 33-34F if it comes down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:18 PM, Ginxy said: looking forward to it. Like Will and Ryan said, it may not come together for all areas, but it has a sneaky look to it where people probably throw the mets under the bus because of some sort of high impact of icy roads (esp elevated interior). "They never mentioned this..." could be something thrown around. But, this forum did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Rain probably ending as snow with maybe a coating in those areas. Probably one of those things where the snow falls near 33-34F if it comes down hard enough. A lot of it is precip intensity driven. If it comes down heavy enough it should be snow, otherwise it may be a mangled mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:03 PM, HubbDave said: As mentioned, untreated roads, timing, people forgetting how to drive Can't wait to be on Rte 2. Wheeee You can always try the Trail out this way. It should be okay because (wait.....for......it.....), all the qpf is to the south and east. 45.0/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: No, the mid-levels will cool first (actually they are already marginally cold enough for snow even before the front in MA/NH/VT) which will prevent any chance for icing. The ice that will need to be watched is a flash freeze though on roadways early tomorrow. Best chance will be in the interior where some upper 20s may occur while we still have a saturated airmass with snow falling. Nice, some light snow will be more festive than 50 car pile ups outside my house anyway. Although sometimes a sneaky inch leaves roads somewhat neglected and people drive worse than they do in a 6" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 On 11/11/2013 at 5:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Like Will and Ryan said, it may not come together for all areas, but it has a sneaky look to it where people probably throw the mets under the bus because of some sort of high impact of icy roads (esp elevated interior). "They never mentioned this..." could be something thrown around. But, this forum did.just hoping if the flash freeze is possible DPW is aware. 12-18 in the VT MTS last night,pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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