PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 At this point the Models do seem to have come to a decent agreement that there will be at least an over running event for the Mid Atlantic. Will it be snow/rain/ice is yet to be determined. I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond. I don't either. I haven't see any model bring enough warmth up this way for anything but snow. Now, I don't get to see everything, but I feel pretty comfortable in just hoping for precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond. me neither, i think its all snow from dc north through baltimore into phili Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still could be an all nothing event as well....best part is even if it is a nothing event there will still be family and food around for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still could be an all nothing event as well....best part is even if it is a nothing event there will still be family and food around for comfort. But without snow who cares about family . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 But without snow who cares about family . True but a food induced coma can make you forget about everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not too worried about an all or nothing on this one. Some overrunning looks inevitable. Cyclogenesis and the track are always difficult to pinpoint this far out. Maybe the models lock on to a similar solution and stick to it all week.? Is that even possible? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This xmas storm if it does happen will be a moderate event. But I still feel the New Years Eve Storm will be the Real Deal ! Thank you for your contribution oh wise swami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wouldnt trust any model right now. Look what the models did with the mecs we where suppose to have today and tomorrow. It brought it then took it away then brought and took it away..... Be careful guys not relvant. its like saying well your car didnt start. therefore cars are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Down here, I like our odds of getting snow for christmas and there is potential for a good snowstorm but it's way too early to jump on amounts and qpf. So Wes, what do you see for areas to the north, such as East Central PA toward the I-81 corridor? A decent hit, or a minimal impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 00Z DEC 20 GFS blinked MODEL 1 says ABC MODEL 2 says XYZ MODEL 3 says XYZ MODEL 4 says XYZ MODEL 5 says xyz MODEL 1 says ABC for 12 runs in a row MODEL1 ensembles over the 12 Model runs says XYZ MODEL 2 ensembles over the past 8 model runs all say XYZ MODEL 3 ensembles all say XYZ for 8 runs in a row then MODEL 1 new runs out and says XYZ what does that tell us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 By that logic, the GGEM blinked too, just with the other eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FIRST Model 1 is NOT very good in general or Handling this event SECOND that the XYZ solution is far More likey than ABC THIRD ..... that solution ABC is NOT a Viable solution even if MODEL 1 were to " flip flop" later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so you think the GGEM has been showing a closed 500 low with a MSLP of 979 MB Just off the Nj c oast for 12 runs? sorry but that gibberish keep trying No, no, the opposite. Been suppressed, right? Now it shows a bomb. The GFS flipped in one direction, the GEM in the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No, no, the opposite. Been suppressed, right? Now it shows a bomb. The GFS flipped in one direction, the GEM in the other. wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM that isnt the issue heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out the issues was the super bombs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM that isnt the issue heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out the issues was the super bombs of the GFS who gives a damn. models all pointing to a decent event ON Christmas. Snow on Christmas. I (and moston this board) could care less if it was a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM that isnt the issue heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out the issues was the super bombs of the GFS So if on December 26th the GFS ends up being right and you're wrong will you admit it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 who gives a damn. models all pointing to a decent event ON Christmas. Snow on Christmas. I (and moston this board) could care less if it was a bomb. cliff notes for those who have missed todays runs the gfs has been showing a massive phase with a massive storm on the coast. all other models have not been showing this massive phase over the US, and have not had a bomb on the coast now the 0z has stepped back away from this massive phase over the US, which DT has been saying all day it was probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 To make a long story short ---- The more complicated a storm is - THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL NOT PAN OUT. I'd stake my very LIFE on that. If it does pan out - I'll take some snow. If it does not pan out - I promise I won't jump off the 14th street bridge at 230am (at a time when it will not hold up traffic). There will be other storms. Hell - IF I truly wanted snow on Christmas - I'd vacation in Mammoth Mountain for Christmas. They're getting at least a foot of snow for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So if on December 26th the GFS ends up being right and you're wrong will you admit it? yeah that is why the 0z euro and 0z ggem are Now in agree emntn have the low coming up from the Deep south? simply b/c I thought ---and still think the GFS solutuion was BS ------that i am against snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The thing is the speed of the system impacted by the Euro's bias out west could ultimately causing the resultant Euro solution, obviously if that timing evolution is off the entire thing is out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How did the euro ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How did the euro ensembles look? A bit farther west than the 12z ensemble, still has a ton of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A bit farther west than the 12z ensemble, still has a ton of spread. Though I'm sure that's to be expected at this point in the game still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the -ao is lower than we ever saw it in a strong La Nina...Last year the blocking was as strong but the storms were juicy...It looks like the storm track is further south and the storms are wimpy...The fall had a few coastal storms that tracked in a good spot for winter snows and usually a storm track like that returns some time during the winter...i still have hopes for February and some snow by months end...I'm hoping we don't end up like Dec. 54... How did December 1954 wind up?And overall I agree with your analysis. La Niña kills off the Miller A track and thus makes it that much harder for a big storm to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 How did December 1954 wind up? And overall I agree with your analysis. La Niña kills off the Miller A track and thus makes it that much harder for a big storm to happen. it was -1.2 for the 1971-00 normals and only 0.1" of snow was measured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 it was -1.2 for the 1971-00 normals and only 0.1" of snow was measured... Usually but this time a decent southern S/W will sneak through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 800 AM PST MON DEC 20 2010 ...MANY RECORD MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION RECORDS SET YESTERDAY... STATION NAME NEW RECORD OLD RECORD AND YEAR -------------------------------------------------------------- LOS ANGELES INT`L AIRPORT 2.23 INCHES 1.62" IN 1984 DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 2.80 INCHES 2.12" IN 1921 LONG BEACH AIRPORT 2.07 INCHES 0.52" IN 1984 SAN GABRIEL 2.96 INCHES 1.90" IN 1970 SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT 2.79 INCHES 1.75" IN 1964 SANTA MARIA AIRPORT 2.13 INCHES 0.95" IN 1984 SAN LUIS OBISPO CAL POLY 1.80 INCHES 1.37" IN 1970 Is it not unusual that these records would be broken in a moderate la nina year? That's what makes this pattern so remarkable. And why records may be set the xmas storm for the 25th and 26th of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What is happening out west is very unusual for a Nina. I worked for a ski area in CO for 7 years (92-99) and this type of precip event is common in a Nino but certainly not in a Nina. Deep plume of moisture into SoCal and hitting CO on a SW flow is the exact opposite of what we typically saw. Typical Ninas brought storms in the Pac NW and moisture into the CO rockies on a NW flow. This was great for the N half of the CO mtns but usually left the S half in a much drier regime. The S mountains are getting pummeled right now with this system. However, most early season snows this year in the CO rockies has favored the N half so that is more typical of a Nina. Either way, this storm is a monster for the mountains out west. CO is expecting widespread 3-5 feet of snow with PWAT in the 5" range. Uncommonly wet snow for CO. Of course, now I'm only interested in seeing what this storm does when it makes it to the east coast. I like the odds of at least an overrunning event in the MA. A coastal would be awesome but at least it looks like a really good chance of seeing accum snow on Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like that shortwave out west means BUSINESS! If it can bowl across the country and phase in time for the east coast cities things could be very interesting this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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