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ABOUT THE XMAS DAY EVENT/ THREAT issues to be considered

Guest someguy

By Guest someguy,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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Guest someguy

Guest someguy

Posted
Posted

PROBLEMS FOR THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION THAT HAVE TO BE SOLVED FOR THE BIG XAMS DAY SOLUTION TO OCCUR

(IOW....what can go wrong?)

1. Note that the surface Low at 150 hrs -156 hrs JUMPS from sw VA to Wilmington NC.

what is THAT all about? of course such a Jump is Vital for MD and VA to stay all cold at Low levels

2. The Phase. We are still experiencing the Phase and timing issues due to La Nina cluster fook from this current NON event... that looked great at day 6 7-8-9. So be careful here folks.

3 The GFS LOVES to over phase things anyway.... see #2

4. in order to get this s/w to DIG like it does at 126 to 162 hrs the RIdge BEHIND the s/w has to be as strong as the recent GFS runs are showing

HAS to be. NO BIG ridge ... you got amplifcation .... and you no storm and there your

( You got no money ....you got no car.... you got no women.... and there you are) .

5. Look at 132 hrs over FAR Nw Quebec... see that closed 500 mb Low ?

look what the Model does with it... the GFS runs are dropping that 500 Low SW towards far southeastern Hudson bay 168.

This feature forces the s/w to DIG as far as it does.

IF that 500 Low is not there... or ...if it does not do that movement ... the s/w does NOT drops into NC / VA.... and you end up with a new England

MODERATE snow ..

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Guest someguy

Guest someguy

Posted
Posted

so from the sounds of it we are way way way away from a good solution here...

well the GFS could be correct.... but by making this LIST ... and checking it twice...

we are going to find which Model is naughty or Nice

santa claus ,might or might not be coming to town

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Lots of moving parts as DT mentioned.

The 12z EC ensembles take a s/w that enters the west coast.....beat the hell out of the ridge that is located over the High Plains at hr 108 and hr 120, and then drops south over the MS valley...possibly phasing with a little vort lobe extending west of Hudson Bay, but this is tough to tell just by looking at the 500 heights.

It takes a surface low and redevelops it near ORF it seems and scoots it to about 80-100 miles south of 40/70.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Dave, great post man and I agree with everything. The Christmas storm may end up being the 50-50 "rejuvenater" and may support something more substantial down the road, perhaps toward New Years. The pattern after Christmas looks prime to me...not to discount Christmas of course. I could just see that ending up being whatever and the larger event waits.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Some good, cautionary remarks on a system that's a week out. Thanks for delineating the various factors to consider. We can hope things work out for a nice event, but I'm always skeptical at this point. At least it's showing up, and not just in the GFS (and not a 300 hour GFS fantasy storm) from what I've read/heard around here. As always, we'll see. Now, not having followed all the details on this, I cannot necessarily tell if this set-up is more favorable or better than what we had for this weekend's non-event here. My impression (again from the bit that I've read and heard here) is that at least the overall pattern evolution better supports something this time around.

If it's looking great still by, say, next Wednesday then I'll be a lot more excited!:arrowhead:

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

some have brought up Christmas 1966 as a possible analog...There was a storm a few days before it that set the stage for the Christmas storm...

I mentioned the 1966 storm not because I think the xmas wave will be similar but because it suggests the pattern has more potential to produce a decent storm than we had a week ago. all the cpc analogs do is say the pattern has potential to produce a good storm not one identical to 1966 or 1969 or any other particular storm. Heck the analogs at D+8 don't een look at teh 500h patterns for an individual day, it only looks at a 500 day mean pattern so the daily pattern which determines the storm's final track, intensity etc. isn't even used. That's why it's probably better not to mention analogs as when I do people start thinking this possible event will be like that one, when in reality it probably won't and may not look anything like it. Heck, 80 percent of the analogs didn't produce a 4 inch storm or any storm for that matter.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I mentioned the 1966 storm not because I think the xmas wave will be similar but because it suggests the pattern has more potential to produce a decent storm than we had a week ago. all the cpc analogs do is say the pattern has potential to produce a good storm not one identical to 1966 or 1969 or any other particular storm. Heck the analogs at D+8 don't een look at teh 500h patterns for an individual day, it only looks at a 500 day mean pattern so the daily pattern which determines the storm's final track, intensity etc. isn't even used. That's why it's probably better not to mention analogs as when I do people start thinking this possible event will be like that one, when in reality it probably won't and may not look anything like it. Heck, 80 percent of the analogs didn't produce a 4 inch storm or any storm for that matter.

the -ao is lower than we ever saw it in a strong La Nina...Last year the blocking was as strong but the storms were juicy...It looks like the storm track is further south and the storms are wimpy...The fall had a few coastal storms that tracked in a good spot for winter snows and usually a storm track like that returns some time during the winter...i still have hopes for February and some snow by months end...I'm hoping we don't end up like Dec. 54...

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

900 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010

THE FORECAST SPREAD/SOLUTION ENVELOPE REMAINS SMALLER THAN NORMAL

AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE QUITE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT AND

EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STEADILY PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE

FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER THE

COMING HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY

THE INLAND SURGE OF DYNAMIC/COOLING/DESTABILILZING SHORT RANGE ERN

PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT OUT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN

WEST/ROCKIES THU OVER/THROUGH A MID-UPPER LEVEL MEAN RIDGE

POSITION BEFORE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND

INTO AN ERN SEABOARD BY CHRISTMAS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE NATION

AND LEADING TO WELL ORGANIZED HOLIDAY WEEKEND EAST COAST WINTER

STORM CYCLOGENESIS. UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN

PACIFIC BY THEN BECOMES MORE OF A MESS HOWEVER WITH INCREASING

SOLUTION SPREAD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH

TIME THERE AND INLAND INTO THE WRN US EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF

GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW ANOTHER POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REACH

THE WEST COAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE

HEAVY PCPN/UNSETTLED WEATHER SLAMMING INLAND.

OVERALL...WHILE GUIDANCE DOES OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES AN OVERALL

SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT SIMILARILY PROVIDED BY RECENT GFS/ECMWF AND

GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS REASONABLE AND RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENT. THE MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPDATED HPC PRELIM GUIDANCE

PACKAGE MAINTAINED CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS

FROM OUR EARLIER ISSUANCE. HEAVY SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS IS OFTEN

MORE FICKLE AS PER IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES AND

INTERACTIONS THAT STILL FALL WITHIN NOISE LEVELS AT MEDIUM RANGE

TIME SCALES...BUT THE FLOW REGIME CERTAINTY SUPPORTS A BUSY/STORMY

HOLIDAY PERIOD.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

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bates

bates

Posted
Posted

PROBLEMS FOR THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION THAT HAVE TO BE SOLVED FOR THE BIG XAMS DAY SOLUTION TO OCCUR

(IOW....what can go wrong?)

1. Note that the surface Low at 150 hrs -156 hrs JUMPS from sw VA to Wilmington NC.

what is THAT all about? of course such a Jump is Vital for MD and VA to stay all cold at Low levels

2. The Phase. We are still experiencing the Phase and timing issues due to La Nina cluster fook from this current NON event... that looked great at day 6 7-8-9. So be careful here folks.

3 The GFS LOVES to over phase things anyway.... see #2

4. in order to get this s/w to DIG like it does at 126 to 162 hrs the RIdge BEHIND the s/w has to be as strong as the recent GFS runs are showing

HAS to be. NO BIG ridge ... you got amplifcation .... and you no storm and there your

( You got no money ....you got no car.... you got no women.... and there you are) .

5. Look at 132 hrs over FAR Nw Quebec... see that closed 500 mb Low ?

look what the Model does with it... the GFS runs are dropping that 500 Low SW towards far southeastern Hudson bay 168.

This feature forces the s/w to DIG as far as it does.

IF that 500 Low is not there... or ...if it does not do that movement ... the s/w does NOT drops into NC / VA.... and you end up with a new England

MODERATE snow ..

Thank you. Great analysis. Always loved the "what can go wrong" view on any event. Puts things in prespective and as you get closer to the event, you hope they're at a minimum.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

the -ao is lower than we ever saw it in a strong La Nina...Last year the blocking was as strong but the storms were juicy...It looks like the storm track is further south and the storms are wimpy...The fall had a few coastal storms that tracked in a good spot for winter snows and usually a storm track like that returns some time during the winter...i still have hopes for February and some snow by months end...I'm hoping we don't end up like Dec. 54...

Down here, I like our odds of getting snow for christmas and there is potential for a good snowstorm but it's way too early to jump on amounts and qpf.

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