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November 11-12 Cold Front/Lake Effect Rain/Snow


Thunder Road

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Buffalo WRF shows a pretty intense band in the London area around midnight that will probably migrate a bit too far west for the city to pick up a lot, but it will be the first of the year.   Getting snow tires on the explorer today around noon.  Hope that happens before the front rolls through and the snow develops.

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Probably the more interesting aspect of this for this area will be the big drop in temps during the day.  Definitely going to be the strongest surge of cold air of the season, and it's initiating during the day which is pretty cool.  Temps out there now are hovering in the mid 40s, but should be down in the upper 20s by sunset. 

 

Only expecting about a 1-2hr period of snow here, but it may be just enough to dust the grass.

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Probably the more interesting aspect of this for this area will be the big drop in temps during the day.  Definitely going to be the strongest surge of cold air of the season, and it's initiating during the day which is pretty cool.  Temps out there now are hovering in the mid 40s, but should be down in the upper 20s by sunset. 

 

Only expecting about a 1-2hr period of snow here, but it may be just enough to dust the grass.

Yeah the temperature plunge will be pretty impressive behind this system.

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After just a light shower it fell 2° to 41°. Dew 32°

 

How much are you expecting up there?  After looking at some of the 12z runs, along with the RAP I'm thinking we may do a little better here than I thought previously.  Maybe a good half inch to inch despite the short duration.  Still 45 here. 

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How much are you expecting up there?  After looking at some of the 12z runs, along with the RAP I'm thinking we may do a little better here than I thought previously.  Maybe a good half inch to inch despite the short duration.  Still 45 here. 

 

Well the forecast saying little to nothing, but I think 0.5-1.0" isn't out of the question. It will probably have to snow moderately though to get the ground to cool fast. Snow shouldn't have a hard time sticking to all the leaves I got.

 

GFS map Mimillman is talking about.

 

gfs_namer_009_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Well the forecast saying little to nothing, but I think 0.5-1.0" isn't out of the question. It will probably have to snow moderately though to get the ground to cool fast. Snow shouldn't have a hard time sticking to all the leaves I got.

 

GFS map Mimillman is talking about.

 

gfs_namer_009_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Be leery of these maps, they are showing QPF which is what has already fallen over the last 6 hours, it could very well fall as mostly rain but change over to snow at the tail end.

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Be leery of these maps, they are showing QPF which is what has already fallen over the last 6 hours, it could very well fall as mostly rain but change over to snow at the tail end.

That's why I looked at the surface parameters text output, which shows SN by hour 9. I'm guessing half of that is rain, the other half is frozen. Looking at the column, the only layer above freezing by hour 9 is 1000mb
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Wonder if some of the lake effect activity can survive the trip down here. Seems possible, and since the synoptic snows are meager to begin with, this may be a time where LES would have a chance to bail us out if system snow busts.

 

12z NAM shows 0.05-0.10" precip for you guys after the synoptic band departs.  Looks like the LE band points right into your area for a time.

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