weatherbo Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 looks like nw lower will have a decent snow. Gaylord is already at a foot for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Generally it's geared more toward severe, so I don't know how well it typically does with LES, but the LSX WRF is dropping at least 0.75" on Porter, and easily 1.00"+ just east of there: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/wrf/wrfdisplay.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 I just looked at the 4 km NAM on ewall... I feel like I'm missing something or I've gone full weenie, but the winds at both the surface and at 850 just don't support what it's doing with the precip. 850 are due north over the central axis of the lake, and actually NNE over the western lake. That just doesn't support bigger totals for SW MI than for Valpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Think we are looking good for a half inch to inch of snow with the front here. A little concerned about the warm start/warm ground cutting into what small accumulations there will be but could get enough of a burst to overcome that, plus I like how the timing of the snow pretty much coincides with darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I just looked at the 4 km NAM on ewall... I feel like I'm missing something or I've gone full weenie, but the winds at both the surface and at 850 just don't support what it's doing with the precip. 850 are due north over the central axis of the lake, and actually NNE over the western lake. That just doesn't support bigger totals for SW MI than for Valpo. Best convergence is in that general area, and increases as time goess on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Don't know what to make of these hi-res runs. They don't make a lot of sense conceptually. That's an odd looking map with the moisture axis curving around the SE portion of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm really curious about what IWX will do with LaPorte and Berrien given that multiple hi-res runs have been blasting that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Knowing IWX they will go 2-4, just under adv level an then upgrade as necessary..... Or issue a lesw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 If anyone ever doubts Hoosier's weather knowledge, put those doubts to rest. IWX has an excellent afternoon disco discussing the upcoming LES. The forecaster had this to say: A QUICK LOOK AT CIPS WINTER ANALOGS SHOW A GOOD CORRELATION WITH NOVEMBER 16-18 2008. THAT EVENTPRODUCED SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FELL JUST WEST IN PORTER COUNTY. Below is Hoosier's post from last Friday from the Medium Range thread concerning this event: Thunder Road - maybe this one could serve as a guide...it's from mid November 2008. 850 mb temps are similar and the synoptic pattern is not all that different from what's coming up. Don't know what lake temps were like but probably somewhere in the ballpark of what we have now.Wish there were some amounts near the shore but the amounts a few miles inland are very similar to the amounts farther inland. Rather than copy and paste the lengthy discussion, here is the link for those interested: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201311102014-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX IWX did hoist a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Berrien MI, La Porte, St. Joseph, and Starke Counties, along with LOT's Porter Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 18z RGEM bullish with the frontal snow. Still shows that east biased most LES solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 18z RGEM bullish with the frontal snow. Still shows that east biased LES solution. Don't call it a bias yet, given the forecasted winds have shifted several times over the course of the last few days, no solution is a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Don't call it a bias yet, given the forecasted winds have shifted several times over the course of the last few days, no solution is a guarantee. It is one of the most east based models. Actually biased isn't the right word, since I don't track LES that closely with this model. It matches up with the higher resolution models that were posted on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Again, don't know if it's real or just weenie goggles, but it looks like both the RGEM and the IWX WRF shifted west a bit with their axes of heaviest QPF between the 12z and 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks like 0.5-1.5" in northern IL with the frontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Wow...haven't been on here much and just saw the NWS LES watch for Monday night and Tuesday west of me in St. Joe and LaPorte counties. Hope a nice significant band develops even if I get little this far east in Elkhart. The season is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Though it wont have nearly as much synoptic snow, Im wondering if this cold front will be anything like the Feb 10, 2012 arctic front? The whiteout squalls that accompanied the front itself were quite a site, and BY FAR, BY FAR, BY FAR the best thing about the wretched winter of 2011-12. 1-2" of snow was forecast and we got 4.9", easily the biggest storm of the winter. Not at all saying this will compare (its 3 months earlier in the season and not quite as strong), but one thing that sticks out in my mind is that, like this one, that front was well depicted by the models days in advance with a line of precip along the front followed by a temp plummet, but qpf steadily increased the nearer we got to the front, and it still overperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Again, don't know if it's real or just weenie goggles, but it looks like both the RGEM and the IWX WRF shifted west a bit with their axes of heaviest QPF between the 12z and 18z run. IWX WRF is definitely a couple miles further to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Its too bad the precip along the front wont get too organized until it hits southern WI northeastward into central MI. We should see a few hours of snow here but the precip/snow will be gaining steam as it heads southward, so it looks like Ohio will be the prime spot for synoptic snow with this one, not to mention it will be happening at night over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 0z RGEM just rolled out. Looks like the LES snow belt will be pushing 25mm of moisture. Axis of snow being pushed further into WI. Kinda like my location to see some decent snow shower activity tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Snow squall warnings up for south eastern areas in Ontario along Huron's shores... As usual, no chance at an early taste of winter for Toronto. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Congrats LaPorte! Last-minute trends are not encouraging for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 0z RGEM just rolled out. Looks like the LES snow belt will be pushing 25mm of moisture. Axis of snow being pushed further into WI. Kinda like my location to see some decent snow shower activity tomorrow. I like your spot as well, an inch of snow on the ground come tomorrow afternoon would be great, and might actually stick around through part of Tuesday given the timing and the cool temps expected on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 MKX showing snow to the border by 7am or just after. I'll get up a bit earlier to see what's going on. Looks like NE OH is going to do really well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 MKX showing snow to the border by 7am or just after. I'll get up a bit earlier to see what's going on. Looks like NE OH is going to do really well also. I think their thinking has changed since then. They changed my grid forecast for tomorrow from all snow to rain/snow, and one of the local models showed a 9am changeover around here. I think mid to possibly late morning (8-10am) will be the approximate changeover for your area, maybe a tad earlier in Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think their thinking has changed since then. They changed my grid forecast for tomorrow from all snow to rain/snow, and one of the local models showed a 9am changeover around here. I think mid to possibly late morning (8-10am) will be the approximate changeover for your area, maybe a tad earlier in Milwaukee. NAM HIRES showing about 7am for you. About 10am here. Thunder Road, I still think you've got a pretty good shot at substantial accumulations. A higher than predicted offshore flow from Michigan would push that band right into Valpo. GFS snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Thunder Road, I still think you've got a pretty good shot at substantial accumulations. A higher than predicted offshore flow from Michigan would push that band right into Valpo. I certainly hope so. I'm not really seeing enough of a westerly component to the winds over the lake to create what will essentially be a shoreline band, but with every mesoscale model depicting it like that, it must be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 NAM HIRES showing about 7am for you. About 10am here. Thunder Road, I still think you've got a pretty good shot at substantial accumulations. A higher than predicted offshore flow from Michigan would push that band right into Valpo. GFS snowfall. Not that it means much, but at the continued urban effects shown on the GFS maps for Milwaukee. These Twisterdata snow depth maps always do that, and I don't understand why, it doesn't for Chicago on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Not that it means much, but at the continued urban effects shown on the GFS maps for Milwaukee. These Twisterdata snow depth maps always do that, and I don't understand why, it doesn't for Chicago on this run. I noticed that too. Don't get that at all. More snow for Alek vs. Milwaukee... yeah right! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I noticed that too. Don't get that at all. More snow for Alek vs. Milwaukee... yeah right! lol Alek might see more snow, but the bubble of nothing right near the lake at Milwaukee vs inland is probably more of a technical error than the model attempting to depict the snow band correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Latest full run of the RAP really gets Racine and Kenosha Counties with some decent moisture - stretching into the thumb of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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