Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Here's IWX's in-house model's precip total (NAM initiated). I have found it to be fairly accurate with trajectory for Lake MI LES events. IWX In-house 112013.png Interesting...some of the globals/lower res models have been showing something like that. I don't quite understand the eastward placement given the progged trajectories over the lake and I'd have to think that land breeze influences may shift the band more toward mid lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I know I'm going to get roasted for saying this, but the NAM does better with LES than the GFS. I plan my LES chases based on the NAM and it never fails when within 48 hours. nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif Actually I think that as well. It is a higher resolution model. If I didn't have to drive through Chicago, I'd go chase the LES too. @ Hoosier's comment regarding trajectories and placement. You would think the placement on the NAM would actually be in the zone I marked below on the map, not over By Berrien County. - at least not at first. I think T-Road is going to get blasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Suppose I should also be paying attention to my own backyard. 00z NAM has some sticking snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 00z NAM vv charts really bullseye Porter county, also down into northern Jasper county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Interesting...some of the globals/lower res models have been showing something like that. I don't quite understand the eastward placement given the progged trajectories over the lake and I'd have to think that land breeze influences may shift the band more toward mid lake. I'm trying to look at everything without the weenie goggles on, but I have to agree. The wind shifts to more NNW by around 18z, but that's accompanied by a bit of drying, so it really seems that Porter County is going to be in the bullseye. I have to be up at 3:45 a.m. Tuesday so that I'm ready to start briefing school districts at 4:30. Since I don't usually go to bed until around 2 anyway, I'll probably just stay up and enjoy this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Even the GFS is great. Tonight's 0z run was probably just about the best yet for mby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yeah looks like LAF could pick up a little snow too. GGEM rolling out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I happen to be coming in to Dayton for work on Monday afternoon. I realize that Dayton is not in an LES zone but I'm wondering if a short drive might put me in a favorable location. I've gotta stay in Columbus on Monday night, work on Tuesday and Wednesday during the day. I realize that instabilities might be extreme for some favored locations. Do any of you have any advice for someone trying to work in an LES chase during this time or does my timing/location not work out for this? Perhaps some of you know a good orographic location within a couple of hours of the Dayton/Columbus region? Also, forgive me if I ask this incorrectly, but, is there not going to be a time when the Huron/Erie double band will come into play over north-central Ohio? It looks like there might be some good north-south orientation from over Lake Michigan but I'm not seeing that come up on the QPF maps for the same axis over Huron-Erie- but I might be looking at the wrong time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 GGEM showing the snow along the front... and then the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 RGEM throwing out up to an inch of snow from the FROPA for much of N IL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I happen to be coming in to Dayton for work on Monday afternoon. I realize that Dayton is not in an LES zone but I'm wondering if a short drive might put me in a favorable location. I've gotta stay in Columbus on Monday night, work on Tuesday and Wednesday during the day. I realize that instabilities might be extreme for some favored locations. Do any of you have any advice for someone trying to work in an LES chase during this time or does my timing/location not work out for this? Perhaps some of you know a good orographic location within a couple of hours of the Dayton/Columbus region? Also, forgive me if I ask this incorrectly, but, is there not going to be a time when the Huron/Erie double band will come into play over north-central Ohio? It looks like there might be some good north-south orientation from over Lake Michigan but I'm not seeing that come up on the QPF maps for the same axis over Huron-Erie- but I might be looking at the wrong time frame. Usually intense lake effect doesn't make it nearly as far south as Dayton or Columbus. Mansfield, OH is in a hillier region and typically sees some lake effect snow in a NNW flow, but I wouldn't expect more than 1-3" there, even if that is a bit of a local max. You'd either have to drive to NW IN or extreme NE OH to get the really good stuff. As for the Huron-Erie connection, one should form in this event and a lot of the models show it at peak intensity on Tuesday during the day and lingering into Tuesday night before ending Wednesday morning. If the flow was more true northerly this connection would put possibly decent snows into the Cleveland and Akron metros, but with some westerly component to the winds I'd expect this connection to remain farther east than that. There will probably be at least half decent snows over extreme NE OH with this setup but it will be east of Cleveland and Akron and a really long drive from your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 GGEM snowfall water eq. Milwaukee and Madison get in on the snow. Litte bullseye near Pontiac. - Side note: southern and southeast Canada really getting the snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Definitely a non-event for those of us west of the lakes, but it will be nice to see some flakes flying around for a time on Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Chicago AFD getting pretty bullish, calling for 6-12". Interesting that this forecaster identified 6z-18z as the time frame, since I'm seeing LES starting possibly as early as 3z but probably moving out of the LOT CWA between 12z and 15z. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 320 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 ... THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NWRN INDIANA. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS AND THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL ALSO SET UP A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE FULL LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ALL DEVELOP A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT PLUME EVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF ALSO HINT AT LAKE PLUME DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE ELEMENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE POTENTIAL AN EARLY SEASON HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR NWRN INDIANA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR NOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE PLUME WILL ULTIMATELY SET UP...BUT GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS...AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT PLUME TO PRODUCE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 06-18Z TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF 2-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STEADILY CONVERGING ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK VERY WELL...THERE IS STILL A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL GIVEN THE VERY MESOSCALE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUMES. ... KREIN IWX a lot more bearish, but at least also mentioning that Porter seems to be the best spot to be right now: .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 442 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD CONCERN THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE NAM...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN QUICKER WITH A FASTER CHANGE/OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MAINLY FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL UNDER 1300 METERS. CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW GIVEN LONG LAKE FETCH AND COLD AIR SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NAM NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS. ALSO...BELIEVE VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE UPPER FRONT WILL HINDER SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...NAM SUPPORT FOR WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTH ALLOWING THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OVER LAPORTE COUNTY WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...ONGOING TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH THE COLDEST MORNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 LOT has Valpo gridded for 5-9", just northeast of town 6-10". IWX has Westville gridded for ~2". Interesting disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 LOT has Valpo gridded for 5-9", just northeast of town 6-10". IWX has Westville gridded for ~2". Interesting disparity. Fairly typical to have LOT and IWX with such disparities between eastern Porter and western LaPorte in LES events. I have noticed this for years, but I have also noticed that LOT tends to be right more often. LOT also seems to be more conservative on LES than IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Here is the latest output from the IWX HiRes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 LOT has Valpo gridded for 5-9", just northeast of town 6-10". IWX has Westville gridded for ~2". Interesting disparity. Here ya go - issued by LOT. 6z RGEM. Doing really well up there by Bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Anyone notice that the initial slug of precip. associated with the FROPA is getting increasingly intense? Look at the differences between the 0z NAM and the 12Z NAM. Even the GFS has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Anyone notice that the initial slug of precip. associated with the FROPA is getting increasingly intense? Look at the differences between the 0z NAM and the 12Z NAM. Even the GFS has it too. Yep. Won't amount to much but one of those things that could be briefly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Slug of cold air to kick this thing off already on the move. Some very cold air approaching the US/Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm guessing that LOT will hoist a Lake Effect Snow Watch at least for Porter county in the next cycle or two. Could also probably justify one for Jasper and Lake (at least east of I-65) but not sure they will go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looking at somewhere between a dusting to an inch most likely for Chicago and Milwaukee, I am just hoping for measurable snow, which has been difficult enough to come by in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yep. Won't amount to much but one of those things that could be briefly exciting. Yeah, the first measurable snow is always exciting, especially if we can get a brief shot of +SN. It's also exciting on the roadways, as people forget how to drive on slick roads. I'm guessing that LOT will hoist a Lake Effect Snow Watch at least for Porter county in the next cycle or two. Could also probably justify one for Jasper and Lake (at least east of I-65) but not sure they will go that route. I see from Keener's post above that IWX's in-house is still showing the brunt of the band in Laporte Co., yet their grids are showing only a couple of inches of accumulations. They must also think that Porter Co. will be the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yeah, the first measurable snow is always exciting, especially if we can get a brief shot of +SN. It's also exciting on the roadways, as people forget how to drive on slick roads. I see from Keener's post above that IWX's in-house is still showing the brunt of the band in Laporte Co., yet their grids are showing only a couple of inches of accumulations. They must also think that Porter Co. will be the bullseye. LAF area drivers are seasoned winter weather experts...I'm sure there won't be any problems. IMO, if this thing busts one way or another, it's more likely to bust west, meaning that more of Lake county would get in on the heavy amounts. 925-850 mb flow turns like 005-020 for quite a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 ARW has 0.75"+ by 12z Tue, and its sim reflectivity shows precip continuing past that time: Interestingly enough, the NMM keeps the band in SW MI through the end of the period, but still brings 0.25" from the cold front and enough from LES showers to get mby to 0.50" by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 ARW has 0.75"+ by 12z Tue, and its sim reflectivity shows precip continuing past that time: Interestingly enough, the NMM keeps the band in SW MI through the end of the period, but still brings 0.25" from the cold front and enough from LES showers to get mby to 0.50" by 12z. Don't know what to make of these hi-res runs. They don't make a lot of sense conceptually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Don't know what to make of these hi-res runs. They don't make a lot of sense conceptually. It is also the end of the run. The next cycle will probably have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 12z 4KM NAM has 16-18" in the La Porte/St. Joseph/Berrien Co areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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