SN_Lover Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 watching models just to go out on Tuesday and see show for 5min and it end. Ill wait till December or January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Video update from Brad Panovich on the potential system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 oy. looks like this one is about done for, was fun to have something to track this early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 #GG I think I will just report my low temp versus staying up for a flurry driven frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 oy. looks like this one is about done for, was fun to have something to track this early though. Yea, the Apps crush the precip before it even makes it's way into the Piedmont. Maybe some flurries? but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 oy. looks like this one is about done for, was fun to have something to track this early though. I said in an earlier post that we would have a good idea of what to expect by Sunday night.....Looks like we have our answer. Even if things trend wetter over the next few runs, I don't see us getting any accumulations out of this one. I would love to be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I am in DC through Wednesday for a work conference. I'll let you know if I see any flakes up this way....there is a joke in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I am in DC through Wednesday for a work conference. I'll let you know if I see any flakes up this way....there is a joke in there somewhere. Washington DC or Davidson County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The 00z Euro finally takes all the snow/almost all precip away from SC and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 0z EURO flurry chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hi-res NAM this morning not looking too hot. Has scattered snow showers across much of NC though....really in mid Nov. can you be upset? I'll be in Nashville so it's looking too warm for me to see anything. Good luck everyone! This kind of reminds me of last years storm where it snowed heavy for two hours. Not saying that will happen, just from the buildup to the storm it has a similar look on radar (Hi-res NAM) before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Big-time accumulations forecasted by GSP: Oh well, it's only November. Lots of winter still to come. In fact, all of winter still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Big-time accumulations forecasted by GSP: Oh well, it's only November. Lots of winter still to come. In fact, all of winter still to come. yep it looks a good sign being this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Flurry watch for Central NC. 06z GFS 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The QPF shown on the models, outside the mtns, was really just a cruel joke (IMO) that was being shown on the models. The EURO sniffed out the idea of the big time cold, but GFS did handle it better for only 1 reason....That was due to the fact that we are in a progressive pattern and the GFS is the progressive model, and therefore did the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Believe it not Im pessimistic about flurries here even though this area does farily well on the redevelopment aspect of precip crossing the mountains with this type of setup and clippers aswell. Temps look too warm early tomorrow before the precip moves in and not alot of moisture to help cool down the lowest 1000 feet. By the time the lowest 1000 feet does cool the moisture is south and east. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013111112_F30_36.5000N_79.0000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013111106_F36_36.5000N_79.0000W.png Flurry watch for Central NC. 06z GFS 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Well that was fun while it lasted. At least it'll be nice to get the first hard freeze out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Well that was fun while it lasted. At least it'll be nice to get the first hard freeze out of the way. Good point. Let's face it. A lot of the fun with wintry precip. in the south is in the anticipation about the possibilities since it is fairly rare. Actually, I feel it is that rarity that makes following these possibilities a lot of fun in advance regardless of what materializes. On to the next threat! And we have nice quick cold air coming in for the three cold/dry fans. Any opinions on which model did best and worst assuming the snow doesn't materialize for most? My feeling is that the Euro was not going positive tilt enough on several earlier runs whereas the GFS didn't do as much of that? Then the euro corrected itself gradually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Well that was fun while it lasted. At least it'll be nice to get the first hard freeze out of the way. Yep, the hard freeze is definitely real for many. Maybe we can get another chance in real Winter. Towards the end, here in SC.. it was going to end up as rain in the Midlands and Coastal sections if anything did escape the mountains. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Good point. Let's face it. A lot of the fun with wintry precip. in the south is in the anticipation about the possibilities since it is fairly rare. Actually, I feel it is that rarity that makes following these possibilities a lot of fun in advance regardless of what materializes. On to the next threat! And we have nice quick cold air coming in for the three cold/dry fans. Any opinions on which model did best and worst assuming the snow doesn't materialize for most? My feeling is that the Euro was not going positive tilt enough on several earlier runs whereas the GFS didn't do as much of that? Then the euro corrected itself gradually. I think the Euro was terrible honestly. Inside 200hrs and showing 2'+ QPF...not sure if it's going to be king this winter. Long range models shouldn't have to fix themselves THAT much. If it was less than 12" I might think differently but the Euro saw something completely different than what is going to happen, which got us way too excited in the first place. I think the GFS sniffed out a lesser event/fropa first and within the same time (less than say 200 or 150 hours)..especially for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think the Euro was terrible honestly. Inside 200hrs and showing 2'+ QPF...not sure if it's going to be king this winter. Long range models shouldn't have to fix themselves THAT much. If it was less than 12" I might think differently but the Euro saw something completely different than what is going to happen, which got us way too excited in the first place. I think the GFS sniffed out a lesser event/fropa first and within the same time (less than say 200 or 150 hours)..especially for NC. I believe even the NAM was trying to cut the low off over NC/SC Upstate as late as yesterday at 12z along with the Euro still hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'm glad I wasn't paying any attention when the models were in full weenie mode last week. There still exists the possibility of flurries in many areas. I will be happy if I see flurries and, if I don't, then it's November and we have a long way (the whole winter) to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Sometimes you have to look outside instead of at the models. Have any of us gotten big rains in the last week or so? Was a little nothing patch of precip coming down like a clipper ever going to drop accumulating snows in Nov? Just seemed a bit far fetched. I think what sparked interest was it wasn't out at day 13, lol, and both major models carried it a few runs. If some see flurries, I'd say it was a win for the models, for sniffing something unusual out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Steve Brule Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Honestly you couldnt ask for a better November if your a snow lover in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I believe even the NAM was trying to cut the low off over NC/SC Upstate as late as yesterday at 12z along with the Euro still hinting at it. at 84hrs and a 1 contour just barely over land...can't be trusted haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Not sure if anyone cares anymore but today's runs of the GFS have gotten wetter and wetter, good trend if temps can work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Not sure if anyone cares anymore but today's runs of the GFS have gotten wetter and wetter, good trend if temps can work out.Jon Are you able to post the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Are you able to post the maps? 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The QPF shown on the models, outside the mtns, was really just a cruel joke (IMO) that was being shown on the models. The EURO sniffed out the idea of the big time cold, but GFS did handle it better for only 1 reason....That was due to the fact that we are in a progressive pattern and the GFS is the progressive model, and therefore did the best.good post you nailed. until we get a more robust southern stream the euro will continue to show these east coast bombs that won't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 For everyone interested, the SREF isn't too bad of a model and NOAA had released a nice plume viewer not very long ago that works wonderfully. Current run has a 30% chance of pops of some type half rain, half snow if moisture left for KCAE. Grain of salt of course; but here is the link. Just click your area on the map. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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