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Potential Mid November Event


BullCityWx

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oy.  looks like this one is about done for, was fun to have something to track this early though.

gfs_apcpn_us_17.png

 

I said in an earlier post that we would have a good idea of what to expect by Sunday night.....Looks like we have our answer. Even if things trend wetter over the next few runs, I don't see us getting any accumulations out of this one. I would love to be wrong...

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Hi-res NAM this morning not looking too hot. Has scattered snow showers across much of NC though....really in mid Nov. can you be upset? I'll be in Nashville so it's looking too warm for me to see anything. Good luck everyone! This kind of reminds me of last years storm where it snowed heavy for two hours. Not saying that will happen, just from the buildup to the storm it has a similar look on radar (Hi-res NAM) before hand. 

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The QPF shown on the models, outside the mtns, was really just a cruel joke (IMO) that was being shown on the models.  The EURO sniffed out the idea of the big time cold, but GFS did handle it better for only 1 reason....That was due to the fact that we are in a progressive pattern and the GFS is the progressive model, and therefore did the best.  

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Believe it not Im pessimistic about flurries here even though this area does farily well on the redevelopment aspect of precip crossing the mountains with this type of setup and clippers aswell. Temps look too warm early tomorrow before the precip moves in and not alot of moisture to help cool down the lowest 1000 feet. By the time the lowest 1000 feet does cool the moisture is south and east.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013111112_F30_36.5000N_79.0000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013111106_F36_36.5000N_79.0000W.png

Flurry watch for Central NC.

 

06z GFS

 

p1GOQ0G.png

 

 

 

12z NAM

TUgxBuZ.png

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Well that was fun while it lasted. At least it'll be nice to get the first hard freeze out of the way.

 

 Good point. Let's face it. A lot of the fun with wintry precip. in the south is in the anticipation about the possibilities since it is fairly rare. Actually, I feel it is that rarity that makes following these possibilities a lot of fun in advance regardless of what materializes. On to the next threat! And we have nice quick cold air coming in for the three cold/dry fans.

 

 Any opinions on which model did best and worst assuming the snow doesn't materialize for most? My feeling is that the Euro was not going positive tilt enough on several earlier runs whereas the GFS didn't do as much of that? Then the euro corrected itself gradually.

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Well that was fun while it lasted. At least it'll be nice to get the first hard freeze out of the way.

Yep, the hard freeze is definitely real for many.  Maybe we can get another chance in real Winter.

 

Towards the end, here in SC.. it was going to end up as rain in the Midlands and Coastal sections if anything did escape the mountains. lol

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 Good point. Let's face it. A lot of the fun with wintry precip. in the south is in the anticipation about the possibilities since it is fairly rare. Actually, I feel it is that rarity that makes following these possibilities a lot of fun in advance regardless of what materializes. On to the next threat! And we have nice quick cold air coming in for the three cold/dry fans.

 

 Any opinions on which model did best and worst assuming the snow doesn't materialize for most? My feeling is that the Euro was not going positive tilt enough on several earlier runs whereas the GFS didn't do as much of that? Then the euro corrected itself gradually.

I think the Euro was terrible honestly. Inside 200hrs and showing 2'+ QPF...not sure if it's going to be king this winter. Long range models shouldn't have to fix themselves THAT much. If it was less than 12" I might think differently but the Euro saw something completely different than what is going to happen, which got us way too excited in the first place. I think the GFS sniffed out a lesser event/fropa first and within the same time (less than say 200 or 150 hours)..especially for NC.

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I think the Euro was terrible honestly. Inside 200hrs and showing 2'+ QPF...not sure if it's going to be king this winter. Long range models shouldn't have to fix themselves THAT much. If it was less than 12" I might think differently but the Euro saw something completely different than what is going to happen, which got us way too excited in the first place. I think the GFS sniffed out a lesser event/fropa first and within the same time (less than say 200 or 150 hours)..especially for NC.

 

I believe even the NAM was trying to cut the low off over NC/SC Upstate as late as yesterday at 12z along with the Euro still hinting at it.

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Sometimes you have to look outside  instead of at the models.  Have any of us gotten big rains in the last week or so?  Was a little nothing patch of precip coming down like a clipper ever going to drop accumulating snows in Nov?  Just seemed a bit far fetched.  I think what sparked interest was it wasn't out at day 13, lol, and both major models carried it a few runs.  If some see flurries, I'd say it was a win for the models, for sniffing something unusual out.  T

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I believe even the NAM was trying to cut the low off over NC/SC Upstate as late as yesterday at 12z along with the Euro still hinting at it.

at 84hrs and a 1 contour just barely over land...can't be trusted haha.

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The QPF shown on the models, outside the mtns, was really just a cruel joke (IMO) that was being shown on the models. The EURO sniffed out the idea of the big time cold, but GFS did handle it better for only 1 reason....That was due to the fact that we are in a progressive pattern and the GFS is the progressive model, and therefore did the best.

good post you nailed. until we get a more robust southern stream the euro will continue to show these east coast bombs that won't pan out.
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For everyone interested, the SREF isn't too bad of a model and NOAA had released a nice plume viewer not very long ago that works wonderfully.  Current run has a 30% chance of pops of some type half rain, half snow if moisture left for KCAE.  Grain of salt of course; but here is the link.  Just click your area on the map.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?

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