mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I know people are saying that cold air won't be a problem, but our local guy just showed his in house model and it showed the precip starting around 6 or 7 pm around GSP. I don't think it will be cold enough at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I know people are saying that cold air won't be a problem, but our local guy just showed his in house model and it showed the precip starting around 6 or 7 pm around GSP. I don't think it will be cold enough at that time? The RPM, more than likely the model your local TV??? guy is using, is indeed quite a bit faster with the onset of precip. It's also interesting to note that the atmosphere is rather nice in ATL Wednesday morning below 700 mb. It really dries out above 700 mb, though, so that could be a limiting factor on how much flurry activity they actually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looking decent for some flakes in the Atlanta metro. I'm liking these model runs. I don't expect a blockbuster storm in November and Atlanta really hasn't seen much of anything since Winter of 2010-2011. Even seeing a few flakes will be welcomed and gratifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Ray's Weather Center Liked · 13 minutes ago We have not posted much in the way of model forecast snowfall amounts up to this point, as there have been some unreaslistically wild depictions out there over the last few days. However, we're starting to see the models settle down and look a bit more realistic in depicting some light snow for parts of the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothill areas for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Here's one such run that looks like it might have a decent handle on the location of light snowfall accumulations. More details to come over the next couple of days. I think this is one of the best depictions of were the snow is going to most likely accumulate and that is going to be in the SW mountains of WNC. That is one thing the GFS continues to show with run after run is the moisture will really be rung out over this area. Good map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 NC mountains look good this run. RDU gets light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 NC mountains look good this run. RDU gets light snow? Looks worse to me compared to 12z. Less moisture for VA/NC...pivots the most qfp to south-west NC southward. Still not bone dry tho so will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks worse to me compared to 12z. Less moisture for VA/NC...pivots the most qfp to south-west NC southward. Still not bone dry tho so will take it. Yes, a little less moisture, but looks a little colder. Figures, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 0z Euro looks drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I've got rain trying to make it across to me from Ala right now and the cold, dry air has moderated. I'll be interested to see if any of that makes it here. So far all the fropa's and bits of energy are moisture starved... and Alabama's derainalizers look to be working at this time. My guess is the next chance will have less chance than tonight because of the cold, dry air we need for snow is out ahead. Still, if it's cold enough, and some of that moisture gets past the virga stage early week, it's possible Ga. will see some flurries. I'm still more interested in seeing what mixes out a week from tomorrow/early week. A good soaking cold rain would trump a few flurries in my book....I need to see proof it can still rain, before I get too worried about how cold it gets. If the gulf gets involved in a week, I'll get on board the winter express T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The 0Z Sun Doc continues the Doc trend of more positively tilted/drier. A few flurries would be a win at this point. In Atlanta, whereas only one in 40 Novembers has seen measurable snow, still only one in five has seen a trace. So a trace in Nov. would be victory for recently snowstarved Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 hour78 north trend on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yeah, there wouldn't be much snow in Ga tonight. There is just no moisture in these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I just do not see ant mechanism to turn the trough axis more towards neutral. There is obviously a good deal of interaction with energy streaming in from the vortex in E Canada but it occurs late, ~72 hours, which makes this look like a fropa and nothing else. The GFS/NAM do hint at and H5 closeoff near the upstate exiting around NE NC, although it would be weak if one did occur. General trace amounts outside the upstate, w nc, ne ga which could be closer to 1/10, isolated chance of few preseason tokens for other areas, if they don't totally sublime on the way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 GSP going with most areas seeing some snow Tues. evening/ night. Said QPF is looking light at moment. They did mention tempering the enthusiasm due to ground temps. I still feel good about seeing a period of light snow based on the models continuously showing the pocket of moisture over NGa, upstate SC , WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Loving this little system...we've done well with these frontal pass deals squeezing out more moisture than expected lately here in the upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FWIW, FFC is putting small chances of rain/snow and snow showers in the grids for ATL metro on Wednesday morning. Weird to see them getting on it this early - guess the new MIC from last year is letting them be more aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FWIW, FFC is putting small chances of rain/snow and snow showers in the grids for ATL metro on Wednesday morning. Weird to see them getting on it this early - guess the new MIC from last year is letting them be more aggressive Their forecast discussion was very thorough and detailed this morning also. Local met Brad Nitz's forecast looks similar to the NWS except he has a 40% chance for Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FWIW. The NAM at 84hrs closes off at H5 over GSP. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I just do not see ant mechanism to turn the trough axis more towards neutral. There is obviously a good deal of interaction with energy streaming in from the vortex in E Canada but it occurs late, ~72 hours, which makes this look like a fropa and nothing else. The GFS/NAM do hint at and H5 closeoff near the upstate exiting around NE NC, although it would be weak if one did occur. General trace amounts outside the upstate, w nc, ne ga which could be closer to 1/10, isolated chance of few preseason tokens for other areas, if they don't totally sublime on the way down. I think that is the main problem. The flow is too progressive and the parent trough is moving east too fast to allow the secondary piece of s/w to get much energy transfer to it. If the vortex in Canada would slow down then we could have something to work with. As of now looks to be a shear longwave trough stretching from Canada down into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FWIW. The NAM at 84hrs closes off at H5 over GSP. Just an observation. I mean, of course it's the 84hr NAM but it's nice to see a model still closing at H5 and not just being a fropa. The NAM is so much slower though, it shouldn't be at 84hrs should be around 70, so that sucks lol. Good obs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FWIW, FFC is putting small chances of rain/snow and snow showers in the grids for ATL metro on Wednesday morning. Weird to see them getting on it this early - guess the new MIC from last year is letting them be more aggressive FFC has been way more agressive for a couple of years now. However, their aggressiveness timing hasn't been good overall as only traces of snow have fallen in the area! Actually, I think they have swung too far in the aggressive direction in general. Like Goldilocks and the baby bear's porridge/chair/bed, I'd like to see FFC be "just right" as opposed to overly conservative like they used to be and overly aggressive like they now seem. What's wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 FFC has been way more agressive for a couple of years now. However, their aggressiveness timing hasn't been good overall as only traces of snow have fallen in the area! Actually, I think they have swung too far in the aggressive direction in general. Like Goldilocks and the baby bear's porridge/chair/bed, I'd like to see FFC be "just right" as opposed to overly conservative like they used to be and overly aggressive like they now seem. What's wrong with that? True. But at least this way is more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 gfs still decent for western nc, but dry as a bone in ga and upstate sc. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I mean, of course it's the 84hr NAM but it's nice to see a model still closing at H5 and not just being a fropa. The NAM is so much slower though, it shouldn't be at 84hrs should be around 70, so that sucks lol. Good obs..Yeah, there are some timing differences between the NAM and GFS, NAM is much slower as you said and dives the energy further south, which allows it to cutoff, albeit barely, at the end of the run, as it becomes removed from the parent front. However, with the lower heights well removed it does not amplify. Here is the 12z NAM at 72 hours compared to the 11/8 12z Euro run at 120, both valid Wednesday at 12z, There is honestly not a ton of difference between the two, the Euro was obvoisly working with much more energy than what appears will verify, and it had a better connection with the long wave axis. 11/8 12z Euro +120 Todays 12z NAM +72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 well just saw the "kiss of death" for n ga flakes - some of the local media websites have started posting articles on how cold it will be and mention the snow word - two days out sigh. lol - honestly though ANY flake at this time of year is a bonus around here. november snow is very rare in ga. although i wont complain if i see some. at least we already have something to watch, and hopefully can get an idea on how the models will be handling things this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Well, you are lucky the "precip" is coming down from your north. Maybe, maybe they don't have the same aversion to letting rain across state lines up there, that Alabama does down here You maybe are going to have to "see" teeny, tiny pin head sized flakes for the rest of us, if last night, down here, is any indication T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 well euro still dry but paints some spotty snow accums from mid nc down to the rock hill area in sc. also shows a swath of snow flurries over eastern nc/sc, not sure if it would be virga or even hit the ground or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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