NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Ray's Weather Center Liked · 13 minutes ago We have not posted much in the way of model forecast snowfall amounts up to this point, as there have been some unreaslistically wild depictions out there over the last few days. However, we're starting to see the models settle down and look a bit more realistic in depicting some light snow for parts of the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothill areas for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Here's one such run that looks like it might have a decent handle on the location of light snowfall accumulations. More details to come over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Umm no. What does JB see that shows that? He showed off some charts this morning with them. I'll review the video here in a little bit and get back to you on PM. EDIT: Sent message to ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 i think this is the reality of what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 i think this is the reality of what will happen. That looks like the most reasonable conclusion all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 That looks like the most reasonable conclusion all things considered. Yes, even though GFS had moisture into the midlands of SC, it looks like the majority of the members say rain if anything. Now the temps and moisture is the issue for us down here. GSP may fare a tad bit better if the moisture makes it. Anderson's snow mean was 0.04in.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Figures the Euro would cave to the GFS. Seems whichever system is showing less snow or less chance of snow is the one that ends up being right, and the model showing a big storm always changes as it gets closer and ends up caving to the model that shows less. Never seems to happen the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 18z gfs at hr 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 18z gfs total precip by 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 NWS Greenville East of the mountains there could also be some snow Tuesday night. The GFS BUFKIT soundings show developing as the Arctic drape moves through at pretty much every site. A storm total snow grid has been generated for the event and will be posted on our social media pages soon. For now measurable snowfall has been confined to the NC mountains...but even folks in the lower elevations of the western Carolinas and NE Georgia should monitor this event. NWS Blacksburg There should still be enough recovery in moisture to produce accumulating snow for all or most of the area. Majority of the accumulating snow will be along western slopes and higher elevations. With a relatively warm ground and a west winds as the front tracks over the region...may limit snow accumulations east of the Blue Ridge to grassy/elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 This is a dynamic and changing situation. I posted this video to show the chance of snow in certain areas, in my opinion at the moment. I am not very enthusiastic about it at the moment because it could prove to be a bust. Upper air disturbances are always very difficult to forecast, and can change just 6-12 hours before the forecast, so it is very unwise to even be discussing accumulation potential right now, in my opinion. So, I gave percentages of seeing snow fall in given areas. I could see situations where the foothills and piedmont of NC gets a dusting of snow, others where SC and northern Georgia gets a dusting of snow. Certainly a dynamic and changing situation that will be fun to track over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 If this was Jan. I'd be interested in the combination of a gulf feed, and another high moving into the midsection late weekend/next week. The Gfs has had a bout of gulf energy showing up from time to time for a week or more, and lately highs moving down with cold toward the se. Penny ante stuff is fun, but the older I get the more I need the big gulf lows, the big cold highs, and a 100 year duzy...... every year, lol. Time is getting too short, for nickle and dime stuff anymore. If we are going to time up some moisture, and some cold two or three times a year, then let's make it count!! I keep watching the Katla cam hoping for help, but it looks like the hope is resting on rare occurrences for now At least Goofy is offering up some funny candy inside of 8 days, or so. That could make this winter fun as opposed to the last few years. And any way, a foot deep sleet in Nov. is only marginally more rare than one in Jan. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I keep watching the Katla cam hoping for help, but it looks like the hope is resting on rare occurrences for now T :lmao: wow. We have rain in the forecast for Wednesday with a high of 52 and a low of 33 Wednesday night. Too warm for flurries or anything here. Still very cold for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 As 1300m has mentioned about this not being sampled yet. While I don't know much about the Raob Network overall. But my question for 1300m....Why do you think it will be tuesday before it is sampled good enough? This disturbance is coming from Arctic orgins... Siberia over to Alaska. Are there not areas in Alaska that do upper air soundings(balloons)? If the case or if not the case wouldn't better data sampling begin later tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Thus possibly better feedback beginning sometime with in the next 24 hours. But my gut feeling and amatuer eyes tell me that there will be a decent snow for this time of year in upstate SC,NC,VA. Even though the operations runs have gone from one extreme to the other. That is the 12 and 18z ensemble mean gfs. Still would indicate possible stronger further west and more neutrally tilted trough by the time it gets on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 KRDU calling for clear and 27 degrees Wednesday night. No mention of any precipitation for us in Raleigh through next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 KRDU calling for clear and 27 degrees Wednesday night. No mention of any precipitation for us in Raleigh through next Saturday No model has precip there from what I've seen lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 00z Nam is ever so tiny bit slightly better. A bit colder, and more energy.. along with a tiny west shift. Edit: Simulated radar looks promising for many also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 No model has precip there from what I've seen lately. Smdh.. Thats because the evolution of this storm is still a figment of imagination or the computers imagination. The overall longwave pattern would support a tranisent quick hitting sc,nc,va snowstorm imo. The reason why Suncat is the fact if this storm is true... it will begin Tuesday Afternoon/Night into Wednesday Afternoon pulling out by overnight Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Nam at 500mb looks a lot better than the 18z run. Energy digs deeper and farther southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 not to sound like a weenie here but I remember several storms similar to this where the precip was lacking and as the event came within 72hrs as the models got better samples of the energy involved. 00z runs tonight will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Someone doing a play by play or nah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Someone doing a play by play or nah? out to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Smidge west at hr 69 compared to 18z maybe a bit more energy back behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 looking better at 66, snow more widespread over the nc mtns lets see where it goes here in the next few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 thru 87 similar to 18z, .1-.25" qpf limited to upstate sc and northern ga. those areas def get snow this run though. everywhere else dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 00z GFS is ew like the 18z. I can say 00z is just a tiny bit slower. Like almost pointless slower and a tad more energy in spots. Nothing as good as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 has flurries down as far south as macon this run, now a bad run for thoe who just want to see some snow fall from the sky in georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 has flurries down as far south as macon this run, now a bad run for thoe who just want to see some snow fall from the sky in georgia. Image to go with your post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 has flurries down as far south as macon this run, now a bad run for thoe who just want to see some snow fall from the sky in georgia. Roger that, sir. Even if I have to stay up into the wee hours I'll have the floodlights on waiting for that most rare, most elusive creature, the Maconus Novemberus SnowFlakus. It seems to me the trend is drier and drier, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Trending north for western NC and VA...0z GFS went from bone dry to .1 and even a .25 in south VA. Takes away just a bit from SC/GA. NEW OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Also comparing the maps above you can see a good increase in qfp with the front to our north-west on the latest GFS...north-east TN, south-west VA, KY, and WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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