Jon Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 GFS does manage to close off around 120 near Elizabeth City Yeah the 12z is a huge step in the right direction as far as the cutoff is concerned...make it happen a bit earlier and we're in business. IDK when the last time the GFS showed a decent cutoff on land or on the coast for this storm before this run (if ever), it's always formed way OTS. I'll take it and wait for 18z and 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Latest GFS is very encouraging. Really like that it closes off the 500mb at 120. First time it has done that in days. A big step in the right direction. Looks like GFS tried to pull trough into neutral tilt at 96...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 The NAM isnt cold enough for snow outside the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 The NAM isnt cold enough for snow outside the mtns. Even the OP GFS from 12z has only 0.3" maybe falling as snow in KCAE and the rest being rain says bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 EURO inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 CMC with the moisture over the Piedmont Triad...GFS probably right tho with it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Assuming the Canadian showed nothing? ^ Edit: Disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 hr 87 best frame on Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 i am here lol. been doing a lot of remodeling work, painting, etc on the house. it started with a room then expanded to all the rooms - took a lot longer than i thought but now am about done. and just in time it seems even if this doesnt pan out (i am highly skeptical at this point) it does bode well for the upcoming winter if we can get this pattern to set up to repeat a couple of times. i admit i was shocked when i got to the post that had the snow in nga and the upstate. originally i just thought it was for the nc mtns bring it on!! Glad to see ya! If this thing can squeeze out a bit more than a flake, then you'll be reporting it, I expect...or Rosie, if it's further west. I think the big take away from the maps lately are the strong highs coming down heading for Texas. The 0z had another after this one . We didn't have much of that last year, or the year before. I think if we can get MetalMan's pipes to freeze early then we'll have a decent cold winter, lol. I believe in the cold coming, but I'll have to see more moisture on the maps to believe in anything beyond virga for us. And, a general question to any, or all. If the resolution, and input on the 06, and 18z, are the same, then why is the output on the 12z and 0z often so different from the ones in between? I.E., the 0z had more moisture, the 6z almost was dried up, and now the 12z has more moisture again...and if history is a template, then the 18z will have something crazy on it. I see this quite often, and still mentally discount the 06 and the 18, even though I know they all carry equal weight to the scientists. The 0z will say yes to something, the 6z will say no, definitely, but then the 12z will say yes, yes, and the 18z will say, "chocolate, ahhhhhaaaggggg". T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 hr 87 best frame on Canadian Not to knock the Canadian, but the precipitation on this run is off. I would expect the precipitation to not be in the same place next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 HPC looks more realistic and GFS like at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 euro is not closed at 96 unlike last run. Looks like its caving in to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 And EuRO closes 500mb just like GFS at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 And EuRO closes 500mb just like GFS at 120 hrs. I didn't think the GFS fully closed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Splitting hairs here. All it takes is 0.1 to be a better run for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 GFS does close off at 120, and Euro now too I suppose. Sorry guys. Too little too late. Depending on the moisture; many may see a few flakes fly around outside the mountains. Euro did put around 2 inches close to GSP etc. Tad bit of GA. But for us guys in the midlands, clt, etc.. better to see a flake or two than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 The 12Z Doc is far less favorable looking than the fascinating 0Z due to more positive tilt. It has no E SC snow and has less for ATL (under 1") and less for Cumming NE to upstate SC (1-1.5").For Atlantans, keep in mind that it hasn't snowed measurably in Nov since 1975 and there have been only 3 measurable since 1890 (also 1968, 1912). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 hr93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Thing is that we are talking tenths of an inch in QPF. I don't know if you can say one model caved to the other when we are talking such small amounts, and pretty small differences up high at 500mb. Hopefully more of us than not can see a couple of flakes in the air next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Thing is that we are tenths of an inch in QPF. I don't know if you can say one model caved to the other when we are talking such small amounts, and pretty small differences up high at 500mb. Hopefully more of us than not can see a couple of flakes in the air next week. Great point and I did let myself get a little too excited over the snow chance (that was weak to begin with) than for the super strong High Pressure and the overall possibilites this Winter. I understand the isobars are different this time of the year; but as dsaur has noted, we see more HP deals coming down the pipeline possibly. Watching JB this morning revealed a possible -NAO, -AO, and I belive +PNA for a short amount of time not too far from now. Maybe, just maybe.. something can come from that around Thanksgiving for someone, somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Focusing on the CLT region, this run is definitely wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Also, almost .3 of QPF at GSP. That really seems to be the bullseye area for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 keep in mind the system will notbget within the roab network until monday, the fact it is still showing the storm is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Also, almost .3 of QPF at GSP. That really seems to be the bullseye area for this event. I thought I saw at least 2" to fall there. I didn't get a look at the actual accumulation map. But definitely a small area through there with higher values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Our best hope if everything verbatim falls in the dry air without eating up our moisture and if it is cold enough maybe it will trend wetter starting Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Our best hope if everything verbatim falls in the dry air without eating up our moisture and if it is cold enough maybe it will trend wetter starting Monday. The lighter grey areas I believe are a rain snow mix per one or two soundings checked in SC. (the majority of it) at least. For this to be much of anything, it has to trend wetter for most of us. Still awesome to see this early in November though regardless! EDIT: Here is some output from KGSP: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Also, almost .3 of QPF at GSP. That really seems to be the bullseye area for this event. It does. Let's see if SC can hold the bullseye for another 4 days. It's hard for any place to do that. Most the time it trends north for NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Our best hope if everything verbatim falls in the dry air without eating up our moisture and if it is cold enough maybe it will trend wetter starting Monday. For sure! My worries too, I know models account for dry air and saturation, but when its not much QPF it leaves the door open for the nice snowstorm a couple thousand feet above you. I know I have had my fair share of those as we all have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Watching JB this morning revealed a possible -NAO, -AO, and I belive +PNA for a short amount of time not too far from now. Maybe, just maybe.. something can come from that around Thanksgiving for someone, somewhere.Umm no. What does JB see that shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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