griteater Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I'm only seeing 6 inches at most in those areas. This algorithm must not be measured right on these maps then. Even the 6" seems like too much for the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Grit, what is your opinion based on that RH map? Is it possible that the precip is underdone for some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 This algorithm must not be measured right on these maps then. Even the 6" seems like too much for the temps. Definitely overdone, but it's fun seeing this show up in SE SC, especially in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I'm only seeing 6 inches at most in those areas. EDIT: There's a HRES ECMWF on WxBell now. Try that one out. Esat has 4" max. Even that may be overdone based on 850's. OTOH, there is a 0.25-30" QPF max. between N ATL burbs and AHN with 850's cold enough for mostly snow. So, 2-2.5" of snow there not impossible if low level temp.'s get cold enough. Would be close to the historic 11/27/1912 snow there, which also had an offshore storm really wind up and cause gales coastal NC after upper energy apparently gave snow to Atlanta and other areas the day prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Grit, what is your opinion based on that RH map? Is it possible that the precip is underdone for some areas? Euro keeps wanting to deposit and close off the bottom end of the trough. Some of the GFS Ensemble members do it too. I just don't like the overall positive tilt nature of the overall trough in the progressive flow, but we'll see. Precip amounts seem reasonable to me based on that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I'm only seeing 6 inches at most in those areas. EDIT: There's a HRES ECMWF on WxBell now. Try that one out. Thanks for that info. I never noticed it being there and its MUCH better than those ridiculous ones I was using. +10 for it also giving me a token few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Euro was pretty dry for my area and central NC. It just never really develops how we want it. At 5h it kind of closes off and doesn't move. Just sits over NW GA and WNC. Something tells me that probably won't evolve that way but who knows. Still pretty skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 6z GFS is really lacking moisture, Maybe a flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Looking back at November 19,2000 snow event we netted almost 3 inches IMBY that day. That was a result of almost.70 qpf total. So we really need to root for the models to become wetter. It will be Monday before the players all get inside better raob and hopefully the models will become juicer. Have to say though I can see the qpf not being there in the foothills/piedmont region. It's been like this for the past 2 months. hopefully the trends over the next 4-5 model runs will improve. Eitheir way nice to have something to chase and maybe some folks on this board can see some flakes for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Looking back at November 19,2000 snow event we netted almost 3 inches IMBY that day. That was a result of almost.70 qpf total. So we really need to root for the models to become wetter. It will be Monday before the players all get inside better raob and hopefully the models will become juicer. Have to say though I can see the qpf not being there in the foothills/piedmont region. It's been like this for the past 2 months. hopefully the trends over the next 4-5 model runs will improve. Eitheir way nice to have something to chase and maybe some folks on this board can see some flakes for the first time. This time around the atmosphere has more cold air to work with. If we get the precip, then ratios will be much higher than that....... 0.70 inches of liquid out of this storm will result in much higher snow totals than the 2000 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 This time around the atmosphere has more cold air to work with. If we get the precip, then ratios will be much higher than that....... 0.70 inches of liquid out of this storm will result in much higher snow totals than the 2000 event. Now there is the problem. We have the soundings to work with, but now the system is drying up. If its not one thing its another here in NC. We need an increase in moisture out of the models today if this thing is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Don't worry about moisture profiles this far in advance. It's unlikely the models are getting the details exactly right. Once the energy comes ashore and is better sampled, we'll get a more accurate solution set. But until then, I wouldn't worry too much about the specific placement or amounts of any precip. The flow is very progressive, and in these situations, the most reasonable forecast would be very light precipitation outside of the mountains, given the current modeling. Plus, there will be a goodly amount of dry air to overcome. Hopefully, there will be enough lift and moisture to give many a few flakes, but I think accumulations are a long shot...not impossible...but not likely IMO. But any flakes this time of year are awesome. All that said, things could come together perfectly, still. Maybe the models are missing something critical that isn't currently being sampled well. But the flow is fast, so it will take perfection to see some of those solutions reappear from the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 What needs to happen to see more moisture transport into the southeast is for the trough to gain a more neutral tilt before it gets to the southeastern states. In order for that to happen, we need to see stronger upper level energy (vorticity) further west diving more sharply southward instead of southeastward. It is still possible that this could happen as all of the energy invovled will not be well sampled in the RAOB network (the CONUS) until it now appears Monday morning or afternoon. If there is going to be a substantial trend back towards more precip, I think that will be the timeframe it could happen in. Not saying it will, this very well could end up just being a dry or mostly dry fropa - and it will for most of us east of the Apps if the upper trough verifies being as positively tilted as what is currently depicted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 What needs to happen to see more moisture transport into the southeast is for the trough to gain a more neutral tilt before it gets to the southeastern states. In order for that to happen, we need to see stronger upper level energy (vorticity) further west diving more sharply southward instead of southeastward. It is still possible that this could happen as all of the energy invovled will not be well sampled in the RAOB network (the CONUS) until it now appears Monday morning or afternoon. If there is going to be a substantial trend back towards more precip, I think that will be the timeframe it could happen in. Not saying it will, this very well could end up just being a dry or mostly dry fropa - and it will for most of us east of the Apps if the upper trough verifies being as positively tilted as what is currently depicted by the GFS. Darn it you be me too it. I was about to note that the trough is too positive needs to be getting neutral tilted by AL,GA. The moisture is there in the GOM based on the RH fields. That mechinism needs to pull that moisture in and will not do that on a positive tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Everyone's favorite model, the NAM, has the weak lee side low near GSP with light precip across western upstate into the NC foothills as thicknesses lower. That's good climo for lee side development - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html This is one type of setup where the models can underdo QPF, but I share the concerns above about the pos tilt trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 What needs to happen to see more moisture transport into the southeast is for the trough to gain a more neutral tilt before it gets to the southeastern states. In order for that to happen, we need to see stronger upper level energy (vorticity) further west diving more sharply southward instead of southeastward. It is still possible that this could happen as all of the energy invovled will not be well sampled in the RAOB network (the CONUS) until it now appears Monday morning or afternoon. If there is going to be a substantial trend back towards more precip, I think that will be the timeframe it could happen in. Not saying it will, this very well could end up just being a dry or mostly dry fropa - and it will for most of us east of the Apps if the upper trough verifies being as positively tilted as what is currently depicted by the GFS. This is the main reason I'm not investing in this particular system. To me, that energy would really have to be almost bullied straight south, and I'm not convinced it can. At least, not enough for the trough to gain a neutral tilt in time. That's my opinion of course - I would love to see someone get a few flakes from this. I'm glad we seem to be setting a nice pace just ahead of the season, and this is certainly 100% more fun than our last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Darn it you be me too it. I was about to note that the trough is too positive needs to be getting neutral tilted by AL,GA. The moisture is there in the GOM based on the RH fields. That mechinism needs to pull that moisture in and will not do that on a positive tilted trough. True, too progressive as currently modeled. The Doc has had a bias of cutting off pieces of energy in a positively tilted trough, but that usually happens over the southwest part of the country. This is highly unusual and I would have not even considered it to be a possibility until the GFS came out with a similar solution. I will give it until Sunday night to see the trends before I declare it a "non-event" for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 While I love seeing that strong high heading right at Texas, which bodes well for winter (if that keeps up), that sucker is going to be very dry, and that paltry bit of precip showing on the maps is going to have a hard time being anything more than virga. I sure would like to see that patch moisten up between now and Monday. It's like relying on a clipper...it'll make you cry nearly every time....at least in the parts of Ga. the Gfs shows getting precip. Except maybe NeGa....and where is he? He looks to be in the catbird seat again, if any moisture does find it's way to the ground. Tony i am here lol. been doing a lot of remodeling work, painting, etc on the house. it started with a room then expanded to all the rooms - took a lot longer than i thought but now am about done. and just in time it seems even if this doesnt pan out (i am highly skeptical at this point) it does bode well for the upcoming winter if we can get this pattern to set up to repeat a couple of times. i admit i was shocked when i got to the post that had the snow in nga and the upstate. originally i just thought it was for the nc mtns bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Everyone's favorite model, the NAM, has the weak lee side low near GSP with light precip across western upstate into the NC foothills as thicknesses lower. That's good climo for lee side development - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html This is one type of setup where the models can underdo QPF, but I share the concerns above about the pos tilt trough Simulated NAM radar at 84 hours looks a little encouraging: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Latest GFS out to 87 has a lot more moisture. GIVES WESTERN NC A GOOD SNOW!! more 500 MB energy than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Simulated NAM radar at 84 hours looks a little encouraging: FWIW that looks very realistic. The nam resembles what the GGEM,GFS showed a couple days ago as far as 500mb and 700mb goes before Euro went stir crazy at over amplifing the s/w trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Also looks similar to Nov.10th 1996,we got some flurrues out of that.Only reason I remember that is the Pamthers played the Giants the day afterward on Sunday night and it was really cold. Close to Dec.20th 1985 too but that one might be a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I thought the GFS looked better, thought it was going to close off at 96 over GA/SC/NC border but didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Wow, the 12 z gfs gives quite a snow to NE GA that would be impressive in any month! It gives 1-3" Cumming neward! More impressive than 0z. 1"+ misses Atl-Ahn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Wow, the 12 z gfs gives quite a snow to NE GA that would be impressive in any month! It gives 1-3" Cumming neward! It looks like it does fairly well for the Atlanta area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 GFS does manage to close off around 120 near Elizabeth City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 GFS does manage to close off around 120 near Elizabeth City Good catch. I had closed it already thinking it never would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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