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Potential Mid November Event


BullCityWx

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Temp is 40 atm. Still having a hard time moisting the lower levels. But still spritzing rain and few wet snow flakes.

 

That band continues to expand and s/w towards Hickory. Nice 25-30dbz returns south of Danville. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=FCX&loop=yes

 

Turnerteam has the rain changed over to all snow under those higher returns?

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Temp is 40 atm. Still having a hard time moisting the lower levels. But still spritzing rain and few wet snow flakes.

 

That band continues to expand and s/w towards Hickory. Nice 25-30dbz returns south of Danville. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=FCX&loop=yes

 

Turnerteam has the rain changed over to all snow under those higher returns?

 

No not yet. We are sitting at 44 with light rain here at the moment.

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From RAH this afternoon. Looks like a lot of us will see at least a little snow:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.

RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.05 AND
0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND
ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW. WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A
MOSTLY WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER
AND IN THE TRIAD REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. THE PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-3
HOURS LONG WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE
TO ACTUAL SNOW LIQUID GFS ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND A WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH
IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FORCING ALOFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COASTING OF WET
SNOW BEFORE MELTING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS. STRONG CAA
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
 

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It will infact... the precip band is all the way in Hickory. They'll be changing over soon as well.

 

 

Mind blowing that it was near 60 earlier today and snowing now.... wtf :snowwindow:

 

Yeah, my in-car thermometer (not sure how accurate it is) read out 59F at 12:30 PM and even showed a temperature in the low to mid 50s at 2 PM!

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