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Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)


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From chasing thread, mention of tree  bark stripping (and video of a coconut palm tree snapped in half like a twig) this does rank up there in the EF scale.  Not an expert.  Also discussed, buildings generally not to US standards, so hard to compare, and wind damage will have to be differentiated from surge damage.

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From chasing thread, mention of tree bark stripping (and video of a coconut palm tree snapped in half like a twig) this does rank up there in the EF scale. Not an expert. Also discussed, buildings generally not to US standards, so hard to compare, and wind damage will have to be differentiated from surge damage.

Without direct wind speed measurement, the category 4 to 5 distinction is predicated on building construction failure, isn't it? The snapped trees, denuded hillsides, etc, establish cat 4. Maybe cat 5 can be established through roof losses and upper story wall failure, obviating the storm surge damage issue?

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EF Scale indicators of speed with debarking of trees:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/27.html - Hardwood

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/28.html - Softwood

 

In general you can expect debarking at around 130-140 mph depending on the type of tree based on EF damage indicators

 

If that was indeed  a Coconut Palm snapped that is a good indicator of extreme winds:

 
Coconut Palm
Damage to the coconut palm may not
show up until months after a wind event.
Internal injuries are almost impossible
to detect and slow to show. If the bud is
severely damaged, new leaves will fail to
develop, and the palm will eventually die.
Seventy-seven percent of coconut palms
survived after being hit with the full force
of hurricane Charley’s wind (1). Only
41% survived hurricane Andrew’s 165
mph winds. Surviving palms were left
with detached or hanging leaves. Even
with its entire canopy detached, a surviv-
ing coconut palm is quick to regain an
acceptable landscape appearance within

two years

 

http://lee.ifas.ufl.edu/Hort/GardenPubsAZ/RoyalsHurricanes.pdf

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Currently, I believe it's rank in history is very inconclusive. There are  68 Typhoons in the basin listed at or below 895 mb.   For all we know, its rank could be anywhere from 1-68. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

 

Certainly one of the strongest to hit land.    

That's because the JTWC is a disgrace of a meteorological organization. They are horribly inconsistent when it comes to intensity estimates. Satellite derived pressure estimates suggested this storm had a minimum pressure between 858-884mbs at its peak. There was nothing to support JTWC's 895mb pressure estimate.. In my opinion, based off satellite estimates and direct comparisons to other TCs, I'd say Haiyan achieved a minimum pressure in the range of 870-885mbs.

 

Thanks to the JTWC's poor judgement, the ranks you are looking at are very inconclusive. However, anyone with a reasonable background in tropical meteorology will tell you this storm was easily in the top 10 strongest TCs ever observed.

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That's because the JTWC is a disgrace of a meteorological organization. They are horribly inconsistent when it comes to intensity estimates. Satellite derived pressure estimates suggested this storm had a minimum pressure between 858-884mbs at its peak. There was nothing to support JTWC's 895mb pressure estimate.. In my opinion, based off satellite estimates and direct comparisons to other TCs, I'd say Haiyan achieved a minimum pressure in the range of 870-885mbs.

 

Thanks to the JTWC's poor judgement, the ranks you are looking at are very inconclusive. However, anyone with a reasonable background in tropical meteorology will tell you this storm was easily in the top 10 strongest TCs ever observed.

 

Yeah all we can really compare is the ADT number to other storms using the same ADT scale. That method is limited to stuff in the satellite era.

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JTWC isn't the official United Nations WMO designated specialty center.  Whatever the JMA called it for pressure and winds (which will have the one minute versus 10 minute) factor will be the official value.

 

JTWC exists, I suspect, mainly to provide warning to Navy ships and USAF assets in the area.

 

And, since the 54th WRS was shut down, there is no recon.  I think the nations of the area, including the US because of Guam, should contribute to maintain recon aircraft.  Australia is on the other side of the equator, perhaps planes could be based in both hemispheres.  Guam itself would be a good main base, and planes could deploy to Kadena or the former Clark AFB as needed, the way the 53rd will send planes to St Croix for invests East of the Lesser Antilles.  It could even be a UN 'blue helmet' operation using the armed forces of countries in the region.

 

 

The fact the US hasn't provided aircraft recon for over 20 years and nobody has bothered trying to replace that, nothing will probably be done.  I saw drones mentioned, if people won't pay for a couple of C-130s I'm not sure why they'd pay for drones, although I imagine the operating costs/support staff would be smaller.

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BTW, as far as being a disgrace, before his call up to active duty for both Iraq and Afghanistan (Purple Heart for IED injury in Iraq, Silver Star for combat duty in Afghanistan) Captain Stacy Stewart of the NHC used to do his two weeks of reserve duty in Honolulu at the JTWC, so it isn't like they are complete amateurs.

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Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 11:54 am

Posts: 98204

Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.

TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall, lashed the province, swallowing coastal towns, a senior police official said on Sunday.

About 70 to 80 percent of the area in the path of Haiyan in Leyte province was destroyed, said Chief Superintendent Elmer Soria.

"We had a meeting last night with the governor and the other officials. The governor said based on their estimate, 10,000 died," Soria told Reuters. (Reporting by Manuel Mogato; Editing by Eric Beech)

http://www.trust.org/item/20131110004338-5qgv8

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JTWC isn't the official United Nations WMO designated specialty center.  Whatever the JMA called it for pressure and winds (which will have the one minute versus 10 minute) factor will be the official value.

 

JTWC exists, I suspect, mainly to provide warning to Navy ships and USAF assets in the area.

 

And, since the 54th WRS was shut down, there is no recon.  I think the nations of the area, including the US because of Guam, should contribute to maintain recon aircraft.  Australia is on the other side of the equator, perhaps planes could be based in both hemispheres.  Guam itself would be a good main base, and planes could deploy to Kadena or the former Clark AFB as needed, the way the 53rd will send planes to St Croix for invests East of the Lesser Antilles.  It could even be a UN 'blue helmet' operation using the armed forces of countries in the region.

 

 

The fact the US hasn't provided aircraft recon for over 20 years and nobody has bothered trying to replace that, nothing will probably be done.  I saw drones mentioned, if people won't pay for a couple of C-130s I'm not sure why they'd pay for drones, although I imagine the operating costs/support staff would be smaller.

 

 

In addition to Japan easily having the money, equipment, and training to conduct recon if they wanted to for about the last 40 years, the same is true of Australia, and basically is true of India and China for the last decade or two, and Taiwan for the last 20 years or so. Yet they don't.

 

These countries simply don't see recon contributing much added value over satellites in terms of forecast accuracy/human safety, and the scientific argument obviously has not been sufficient.

 

I could spend the next half an hour trying to carefully word what I'm about to type but no matter what it's going to be misread and I will get flamed.  A sort of weenie-ish desire for recordology and absolute precision isn't enough of a reason to demand recon. I enjoy following recon as much as the next guy - I watch all the documentaries, I follow the Google Earth kml,  It has contributed enormous scientific value,. But as I mentioned before other countries have chosen to free ride on the scientific knowledge gained from US recon because it applies to all TCs.

 

And recon determining whether the pressure of Haiyan was 895 mb or 870 mb would have been irrelevant to any warnings in the Phillipines and wouldn't have saved a single life.

 

I also don't think people understand the extraordinary expense of forming, manning, buying the equipment for, and training a dedicated recon squadron - especially for countries with real pressing military needs or experiencing military cutbacks.

 

More recon will have to wait for reliable, relatively inexpensive long-endurance UAVs capable of surviving a TC.

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actually, Taiwan and Hong Kong do fly recon missions but only when typhoons get near their area... furthermore, the Taiwan DOTSTAR flies around the periphery of the cyclone; i haven't seen any mission that actually flew inside.. the dropsondes they drop are usually 100 to 200km away from the center so no readings on min pressure...

 

the last mission conducted was in October when Typhoon Fitow approached Taiwan...

http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en/

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Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 11:54 am

Posts: 98204

Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.

TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall, lashed the province, swallowing coastal towns, a senior police official said on Sunday.

About 70 to 80 percent of the area in the path of Haiyan in Leyte province was destroyed, said Chief Superintendent Elmer Soria.

"We had a meeting last night with the governor and the other officials. The governor said based on their estimate, 10,000 died," Soria told Reuters. (Reporting by Manuel Mogato; Editing by Eric Beech)

http://www.trust.org/item/20131110004338-5qgv8

Tacloban city administrator Tecson Lim said that the death toll in the city alone "could go up to 10,000." Tacloban is the Leyte provincial capital of 200,000 people and the biggest city on Leyte Island.

About 300-400 bodies have already been recovered, Lim said. A mass burial was planned Sunday in Palo town near Tacloban.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/09/typhoon-haiyan-death-toll_n_4248105.html

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Some of the first news out of the eastern provinces of Samar:

 

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43345-eastern-samar-towns-ruins-yolanda

 

The Samar peninsula is heavily forested between communities. I can imagine a fly-over of locations at first landfall of Haiyan's eyewall revealing an appearance not unlike piles of of broken matchsticks. They'll probably have to bulldoze the roads to get relief into these areas if motorbiking is as difficult as described.

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Some of the first news out of the eastern provinces of Samar:

 

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43345-eastern-samar-towns-ruins-yolanda

 

The Samar peninsula is heavily forested between communities. I can imagine a fly-over of locations at first landfall of Haiyan's eyewall revealing an appearance not unlike piles of of broken matchsticks. They'll probably have to bulldoze the roads to get relief into these areas if motorbiking is as difficult as described.

 

a mayor from another town traveled 8 hours by motorcycle to check on his neighboring town of Guiuan... he reported back that at least 95% of the town is gone... PH Air force is now trying to see if the lone airstrip of Guiuan is still usable for C-130 flights...

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911BUFF just posted "URGENT! PHILIPPINE OFFICIALS UNABLE TO MAKE CONTACT WITH ANYONE IN GUIUAN, TOWN OF MORE THAN 40,000 PEOPLE AND WAS HIT FIRST BY HAIYAN." Can anyone verify this? 

 

Guiuan is actually going to be OK I think. In preparation for Josh's maneuvering I checked out Guiuan as a possible chase spot and it actually is in a nice spot. It is on the western shore so the storm surge would be pushing away from the city and it has a 100m tall mountain to it's east that would block some of the super strong winds. However, the road to Guiuan is trashed and the villages along it most likely got hit with the full storm surge.

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Guiuan is actually going to be OK I think. In preparation for Josh's maneuvering I checked out Guiuan as a possible chase spot and it actually is in a nice spot. It is on the western shore so the storm surge would be pushing away from the city and it has a 100m tall mountain to it's east that would block some of the super strong winds. However, the road to Guiuan is trashed and the villages along it most likely got hit with the full storm surge.

 

Not so sure about that. Yes, the mountains may have blocked the easterly winds from the front side of the storm, but the just as strong back side would've slammed Guiuan with southerly winds coming straight from the Leyte Gulf (the city itself faces WSW into the Gulf, so this would've inundated the its coastline with storm surge).

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Not so sure about that. Yes, the mountains may have blocked the easterly winds from the front side of the storm, but the just as strong back side would've slammed Guiuan with southerly winds coming straight from the Leyte Gulf (the city itself faces WSW into the Gulf, so this would've inundated the its coastline with storm surge).

A large portion of the town ranges from 15 to 35 feet ASL. It's only the market area and boat launches that are below that. Remember too that Guiuan doesn't have the water funnel that Tacoblan had that made the surge jump to 25 ft. I would hope that the residents there would have been smart enough to evacuate to higher ground before the storm. My plan for Josh if he was to go there was to go to the Hospital there which is 40 ft ASL.
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Guiuan is actually going to be OK I think. In preparation for Josh's maneuvering I checked out Guiuan as a possible chase spot and it actually is in a nice spot. It is on the western shore so the storm surge would be pushing away from the city and it has a 100m tall mountain to it's east that would block some of the super strong winds. However, the road to Guiuan is trashed and the villages along it most likely got hit with the full storm surge.

 

Guiuan had a 10 min sustained wind of 96.2 mph before the eyewall ever hit and all communication was lost, I'm pretty sure it took a hard hit. I'm not exactly sure where the obs station in the area is, but chances are they took some extreme wind damage.

 

Those winds in that Giporlos video around 4:10 in look (just eyeballing it) to be over 150 mph (comparable to the Charley gas station video, if not stronger).

 

Just saw a report (preliminary) from Jeff Piotrowski saying that Giporlos and Guiuan combined were "95% gone".

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Guiuan had a 10 min sustained wind of 96.2 mph before the eyewall ever hit and all communication was lost, I'm pretty sure it took a hard hit. I'm not exactly sure where the obs station in the area is, but chances are they took some extreme wind damage.

 

Those winds in that Giporlos video around 4:10 in look (just eyeballing it) to be over 150 mph (comparable to the Charley gas station video, if not stronger).

 

PAGASA station is located on the east side of the peninsula which is the worst side to be in... i'm pretty sure the entire station is destroyed; sad because the radar was just installed earlier this year...

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Goodness gracious me. That second image is right up there with the most intense TC damage I've ever seen.

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