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Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)


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I need to correct my earlier statement as I did intend to say Cat 5 (being that begins once you get over 155 mph). Anyway I am still not seeing signs of degeneration as this approaches. I sure wish we had recon out there.

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Bohol and Cebu should be on the weaker Southern side, but I've been reading they have been evacuating people in tent cities from the October 15 earthquake into any shelter they can find, and some of the shelters like the Catholic church here holding 137 families, I'd be nervous even on the weaker side of a Super-Typhoon with what appears to have a large eyewall.

 

 

1380582_697495396929637_520974888_n.jpg

 

 

 

 

Below- Sto. Niño is the oldest Catholic parish in the Philippines.  The current church building isn't that old, dating to 1740 (still older than the United States), but the Basílica Menor del Santo Niño de Cebú experienced partial collapse during the quake.  YouTube of collapse below.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Lnxq1xS2dmU

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nuts is a kind word. masochistic is what i would describe them as. hope they make it through in one piece.

 

If they survive I'd like to see what pressure readings they get. Remember, Tip was extrapolated if I'm not mistaken.

As to the pressure of this storm, that's all relative to the pressure around it. However, it could probably be extrapolated due to the known wind speeds. It's entirely possible that this could have a pressure lower than Tip, or a pressure of 900mb. Had Andrew attained this strength, it could have been above 900mb.

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I've never seen a hurricane with such a perfect circular form and a massive core at the same time. This is going down in the history books. The power of this is out of this world. It's like all of the N. Atlantic's power shifted to the W Pacific this year. They've gotten several powerful storms, this one being the most powerful. We've gotten nothing.

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I certainly fear for the safety of thousands of people in harm's way there, while not the most heavily populated portion of the country, would estimate around a million souls between 50 miles south and 100 miles north of the projected track of the eye (which I take to be south Samar to central Panay). As noted, damage potential extends further to north than to south which is a good thing for Cebu and Negros but this is such an intense storm that, like Katrina, storm surge issues could be considerable a long way from the track.

 

From the sounds of the facebook discussion that was linked, I got the impression that public awareness in that part of the country may be much lower than further north where intense typhoons hit more often.

 

Consequently, have posted a general warning of what might be expected in that particular region and hope that those who are only relying on facebook or power of prayer might at least have the basic info that might cause them to seek adequate shelter. Anybody in a third world type village facing the sea at this point would need a major miracle to survive. No way would I wish to be watching this come ashore from eastern Samar, there is bound to be a storm surge of at least 20 if not 30 feet high there. Not too sure how the storm surge issue plays out within the complex of islands but assume it would be partly mitigated, however, this thing is moving at a very steady pace and won't weaken much if at all over this 50-50 land-sea environment, would predict it might lose 10-15 mb and maybe 20-30 knots but still an upper end cat-4 or lower end cat-5 by time it reaches northern Palawan and returns to open South China Sea.

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Just as I thought this beast was weakening, she posts her warmest eye reading yet at nearly 22C. Average CDO temperature has warmed half a degree, however. 

 

2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE

 

This storm is certainly deeper than 895mb. Probably in top 5 tropical cyclones in terms of lowest pressure ever.

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Just as I thought this beast was weakening, she posts her warmest eye reading yet at nearly 22C. Average CDO temperature has warmed half a degree, however. 

 

2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE

 

This storm is certainly deeper than 895mb. Probably in top 5 tropical cyclones in terms of lowest pressure ever.

 

It really is a shame we are not dropping dropsondes in this beast

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